Racing

Royal Ascot Carnival 2022: Day 1

                                                                                                                                                    By Jarred Magnabosco @MagnaDataTips

Royal Ascot, The most prestigious week on the global racing calendar is here yet again, bringing many of the worlds top rated thoroughbreds together for a high-class week of racing. Below I’ve provided an in-depth analysis of the main chances for each of the stakes races on the card.

We start the meeting, in RACE 1 with the G1 Queen Anne Stakes held over the mile under WFA (Weight For Age) conditions.
A race which has been won in the past decade by champions such as Toronado, Declaration of War, Frankel and most recently Palace Pier.

This year, the race is headlined by the highest rated horse in World in BAAEED.
A full brother to this year’s G1 Coronation Cup winner in HUKUM (Sea The Stars x Aghareeed) the younger BAAEED made it 7 from 7 a fortnight ago when 1st-up in highly dominant fashion in the G1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.

He looks unbeatable here and should make it 8 from 8 with a possible step up to 10 furlongs following Ascot which would be great to see as he’s only been seen over a mile.

Of the others CHINDIT could be one at a price to finish 2nd. He was an incredibly highly rated 2YO who beat Cox Plate winner STATE OF REST at Doncaster in the G2 Champagne Stakes of 2020. He had a tough time as a 3YO but has resumed this time in work with a 1st-up win in a small field of 4, before running 3rd beaten 5L to race fav BAAEED last start and is a winner at Ascot, so a big run wouldn’t shock.

My Numbers 2———–3-5-4

TIP: BAAEED
2ND PLACE BET: CHINDIT

RACE 2 is the G2 Coventry Stakes, a 2YO 6 furlong (1200 metre) race down the straight course for the newcomers. It’s a race won by the likes of shuttle stallions Caravaggio, Power, Dawn Approach, The Wow Signal & Calyx.

This race is obviously a much more open affair than the opener on the card betting $3.25 the field.
Aidan O’Brien brings two runners here in AGE OF KINGS, a 1.1m guineas yearling purchase by KINGMAN. He was a super impressive 4L winner last start at The Curragh but he’s not going to get it that easily here and in a bigger field I’m happy to look for others.

Stablemate BLACKBEARD is looking to make it 4 from 4 and put in his best performance to date when winning the G3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh last start. Ryan Moore sticks and I think he’s the horse with the most upside in the field.

Of the others race favourite PERSIAN FORCE can certainly run a big race and is a winning chance. At the short price of $3.25 though, I’m happy to risk, as he’s over a month in-between runs and comes off a win in a 3 horse field which the depth can obviously be questioned.

LATE SEPTEMBER heads over for US based trainer George Arnold II and may not have any market respect, currently a $51 chance. He won a maiden on the dirt leading into this and although this is a big rise in class, it’s a bold move to bring the horse over for this, so he obviously thinks he can run a big race and a top 3 showing wouldn’t shock me at a monster price.

My Numbers 2-1-10-12-8

Tip: BLACKBEARD

The most anticipated race on the card for those watching down under is Race 3 for the G1 King’s Stand Stakes where our beloved NATURE STRIP, the world’s highest rated sprinter will tackle the world representing our great country.
This is a race won by Australian champions such as Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti & Scenic Blast while it’s also been run by many other Australian sprinters over the years looking to take their legacy to the world stage.

We all know that NATURE STRIP is unbeatable when he’s on song. In the past year his record reads 8:5-2-1 but it was his most recent performance in the G1 TJ Smith which would almost certainly secure him a win here.
James McDonald heads over for the ride, the horse from all reports in absolutely airborne and I, along with the rest of Australia will be cheering him hard!

GOLDEN PAL is the challenger here. He’s been to England twice before, running 2nd as a 2YO in the G2 Norfolk Stakes and most recently last year when he came over for the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes dropping out to finish 7th. The run tells me it’s a forgive and forget run, as his form outside of that is just too good and quick to dismiss. The big question mark is, can he handle a gruelling 5 furlongs if challenged for the lead?

Of the others the Jack Davidson trained MOONEISTA who looks to be in career best form running a last start peak career high rating. Drawn well here and should get the lovely run behind a very quick tempo to be finishing off strongly. KINGS LYNN $16-1 for Her Majesty The Queen is somewhat underrated here. Problem may be the draw in barrier 2, but if it’s not a disadvantage and if the tempo is red hot, I’d expect this son of Cable Bay to run a cheeky race while TWILIGHT CALLS $7.50 comes from the same race, finishing 2nd and looks to have improved since resuming a gelding at the end of his 3YO season. Not sure I can justify such a big price differential between these two though.

My Numbers 12-5-17-7-16

Tip: NATURE STRIP
Rough Chance: MOONEISTA

By the time they cross the winning post, I expect most reading this will be heading to bed, but for the die hard Ascot fans, the meeting is only half way done, read on…

Race 4 see’s another massive G1 by way of the St James Palace Stakes, run over the mile for 3YO colts which is a real stallion making race, won by the likes of Giant’s Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, Sharmadal, Henrythenavigator, Mastercraftsman, Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Dawn Approach & Kingman just to name a few. While the latter three have had sons win the race over the past 4 years in, Without Parole (Frankel), Palace Pier (Kingman) & Poetic Flare (Dawn Approach). This year no runners are represented by past winners of the race.

Odd’s on favourite COROEBUS was a super impressive last start winner of the G1 English 2000 Guineas showing a blistering turn of foot, however did have serious early sectionals to suit. Watching many previous years editions, I doubt the tempo is going to be run along at those splits, so to take $1.60 is too short for me. In saying that, he is the best 3YO in Europe at the moment for mine and is impeccably bred by star stallion Dubawi, (sire of Benbatl, Ghaiyyath, Monterosso, Too Darn Hot, Lord North, Postponed, Akeed Mofeed & Night of Thunder) so this no doubt has been a big target race and all going well, should be very hard to beat.

MIGHTY ULYSSES makes a massive step up in grade but gee he looks a progressive type of horse.
A very smart winner on debut at his only start as a 2YO when showing a blistering turn of foot, albeit in average company.
He resumed as a 3YO over 1m2f but wasn’t fit enough and subsequently dropped out. He then dropped back to the mile with a strong 2nd-up win at Newmarket by over 4L hands-and-heels before running 2nd last start to the undefeated WHOPUTFIFTYINYA under handicap conditions, giving the winner weight.

Rock hard fit now, Frankie Dettori back onboard and an upset wouldn’t shock.

BERKSHIRE SHADOW is well over the odds for mine at the $41 quote. He was a Royal Ascot winner as a 2YO on this day last year in the G2 Coventry Stakes, which was his last victory. His 1st-up 5th behind the race favourite was a pass but he’ll need to improve if he is going to turn the tables here. Place chance.

My Numbers 6-10-4-7

Tip: Coroebus