Racing Tips: 4th January

Midweek selections from the PlayUp form analyst

Geelong R4 #1 El Cordobes $4.40 at PlayUp – Comes here second up off a strong resumption to racing this prep, finishing third at Sandown behind Hennessy Lad. He had a good run on that occasion, and was very strong inside the last 100m and also past the post, indicating he has returned well and in search of further distance. Second up, and out to 1500m looks ideal placement for this horse. He has placed both attempts this trip, and has only missed a top three finish twice in his career. Tipping he runs very well in this winnable grade.

Geelong R6 #2 Bahama Bay $10.00 at PlayUp – Comes through a very competitive race at Moonee Valley last start, where he finished fourth behind Rich Fortune but definitely ran better than his odds suggested that day. The maiden win at Moe prior was very strong, running a strong last 200m sectional to score with a big gap after the 2nd horse to the rest of the field. He won that maiden race in a time that was also 9L quicker than class average, showing he should be able to compete into benchmark grade. Drawn to get back off a hot speed and run on here.

Geelong R8 #16 He’s Essential $11.00 at PlayUp – Keen to back this Moody runner off a strong last start placing at The Valley, and although beaten 4L on paper the run is much better than it suggests. He found an awkward spot in running on the fence behind a slow tempo, which meant it was always going to be a very hard position to win from. On straightening, all the slower horses in the race fell back in his face, leaving him with no room until the last 100m when he flashed through the line. Somehow still ran the 6th best last 200m sectional of the entire program, and without a doubt should’ve gone much closer. Fourth up here, pick fit, and should be suited back to a bigger track.

Warwick Farm R3 #1 Elettrica $3.20 at PlayUp – Keen to stick with this J Pride runner, who was super unlucky at Canterbury two runs ago, and then was placed on Christmas Eve at Randwick in a good race there. She managed to run a meeting fastest last 200m sectional at Canterbury, even though she was barely tested through the line in a very unlucky run. The form out of that meeting at Randwick last start has been strong, and I like that she comes back to midweek grade fourth up and ready to peak. 1400m now looks ideal with fitness on her side, and the claim for Reece Jones helps as well.

Warwick Farm R7 #12 Cadetship $4.40 at PlayUp – Tipping this horse can go on with things after stylishly winning in maiden grade last time out. That was a strong maiden race, with the second horse since starting favourite at Randwick in a strong maiden, and others down the field since running well subsequently to that. He was still very green in winning that race at Newcastle, but showed a good turn of speed and ability to put a field away. J McDonald takes the ride which is a strong push, especially due to the 54.5kg weight that he would’ve had to waste for. Drawn perfectly in barrier three, I think this horse wins again here.


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