Racing Tips: 28th September

Midweek selections from the PlayUp form analyst.

Cranbourne R1 #10 Rule Of Time $2.70 at PlayUp – Was very good in heavy conditions on debut at Geelong, getting back to near last in running and flying home through the line. There was a prominent on-pace bias that day as well, so it gave her run a lot of merit. She finished in the fastest last 400m and 200m splits of the meeting, and likely goes close to winning if she settled closer. Second up now and fitter, and steps straight to 1400m which looks ideal. She can handle wet tracks, and should be able to settle handier this time with a crucial rider change to B Shinny.

Cranbourne R7 #3 Obfuscation $2.30 at PlayUp – Have been waiting for this horse to return for weeks, it has been scratched a few times from wide draws and also failed to make the final field of a race a few weeks ago. I’m keen because of his very good first up effort behind Viviane at Sale, and that winner has run very well again since. He was caught in traffic at a crucial stage in that race, and only got clear in the final furlong to flash home but missed. A meeting fastest last 200m sectional alongside his name reads extremely well for a horse who wasn’t even in clear running for the entirety of that final 200m. Second up, fitter, and should be out of trouble from the wide draw.

Cranbourne R8 #11 Shipstern $3.80 at PlayUp – This colt was a dominant winner on debut at Warracknabeal, and although that doesn’t sound very enticing on paper his sectionals and figures were very strong. He had meeting fastest closing splits, and a run rating which puts him above average benchmark grade as a horse. He then finished only 3L off the winner in the Listed Poseidon Stakes down the Flemington straight, which should be a very strong form reference. Saved from The Valley on Friday to contest this much easier event, and Craig Williams takes the ride which looks a very strong push.

Rosehill R4 #5 Jupitus $5.50 at PlayUp – Coming off a very good win down in Melbourne, scorching the Sandown turf to score in a handy BM64 by 1L on the line. He came from near last on a day where not much ran on, and they walked in front making his win even more impressive. That was over 8 weeks between runs too, meaning he was hardly screwed down to perform at his peak. Second up now, and deservedly makes the trip to Sydney where he gets the crucial James McDonald booking, and draws perfectly in barrier two.

Rosehill R6 #14 Stray $3.50 at PlayUp – A very hard horse to catch, but willing to give her one more chance here this afternoon. Previously, her career peak runs have come when first and second up in the prep, and she comes her second up off a very unlucky 4th in Randwick Saturday grade a few weeks ago. She settled near last and flew home but ran out of time, and if she had been closer in the run she wins. Barrier one here will force their hand to position handier in running, and sticking to 1400m from that closer draw should pose no issue. This is a much weaker race as well, and she gets as good a chance as any to win again.


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