Racing Tips: 19th November

Saturday racing selections from the PlayUp form analyst

Ballarat R1 #6 Hypothetical $2.80 at PlayUp – Racing very well this prep, including a first up win at Geelong, and a last start 3rd down the Flemington straight. That was at BM80 level, and she sat by herself down the middle of the straight with no horse to tow her into the finish. She still managed to fight hard through the line when probably entitled to fade, and her closing sectionals were all very strong for that class. Down in grade now third up, and back out to 1200m should suit as well. Gets the right jockey on board, B Melham is flying in the saddle of late.

Ballarat R7 #10 Pink Cashmere $15.00 at PlayUp – Thought this Maher/Eustace runner has gone up the wrong price, coming off an impressive debut win on the Ballarat Synthetic last start. Obviously has to make a difficult transition from synthetic to turf, but she looks a very progressive filly who may not have any issue. The debut win she ran the second fastest last 200m split of the entire meeting, and won with a leg in the air over her rivals. Fitter and improved here second up, drawn well, and down on the minimum 54kg should give her every chance.

Ballarat R10 #1 Detonator Jack $2.90 at PlayUp – Loved the way this horse returned to win last start, taking his career record to five starts for four victories. The only time he tasted defeat is when he ran 3rd in the G1 SA Derby when settling last and flying home, and likely winning had he settled closer in running. The first up win at Flemington was dominant, really attacking the line late to score and having the sectionals on the clock to back it up. Second up now, and is undefeated at this stage of his prep. Drawn perfectly in barrier five, and strikes a very winnable race for a horse who looks G1 quality.

Kembla Grange R5 #11 Vianello $5.00 at PlayUp – Very good run first up to finish second at Warwick Farm, when likely should’ve won if not being held up by tiring horses who were falling back into her lap. She flashed late but missed, and ran very sharp sectionals between the 600m and the 200m. That was her first run for 11 months, so now second up will be much fitter and better for the run. Gets the crucial 3kg claim for Zac Lloyd who is riding very well, and looks to map nicely from the low draw.

Kembla Grange R7 #15 Key Largo $17.00 at PlayUp – Going to speck a roughie in this feature event, and siding with Key Largo who looks well placed with a very light weight and a very good draw in barrier two. He was good at Randwick on cup day when winning by half a length, running the fastest last 600m, 400m, and 200m’s of the entire day for a very strong win. He has placed two from four second up, which is encouraging enough I believe, and has clearly returned in great order this prep. Any ground condition he can handle, and sticking to the 1000m is seemingly suitable. With any luck he can go very close at an each way price.


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