Another great Saturday of racing comes around, as we hit the final stretch of the Adelaide Carnival. The feature race today is the G1 South Australian Derby for the 3 year olds, run over 2500m. There are some notable previous winners of the race including Qafila, and Rebel Raider back in 2009. It’s another great line up this year, and should make for an exciting race. The Brisbane carnival starts to heat up at Doomben, with the running of the G3 BRC Sprint, and the Listed Doomben Guineas. Some serious horses have made the journey north, and so begins the great action of the winter carnival. Racing also at Caulfield, and the Gosford Cup meeting has been transferred to Randwick. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has found five key picks to be having today, check them out below.
Caulfield R2 #9 Simply Optimistic $6.50 at PlayUp – Giving this gelding another chance on top here, in what is a very open race by market perspectives. I think last start was a complete forgive when things just did not go to plan, he laid in under pressure when making a wide swooping run from the back, but the original plan was to settle up on speed. He is fitter for that run, and looks to peak here third up. He should push forward from the wide draw and find a spot handy to the speed, and he sticks to the same track & distance. His run two back was really good, I think he will jump well over what his odds should be! Selections: 9-12-10-1
Caulfield R6 #8 Hang Man $3.50 at PlayUp – Hang Man comes here back to Caulfield third up off a really good effort last start behind Rupture at Flemington. He wasn’t afforded the clearest of runs in the straight on that occasion, and got home through the line really nicely. Although coming back in trip to the mile today may not be entirely ideal, it is only 100m less than last start and if he is forward enough in condition I don’t expect it will pose any great issue. He maps very well from barrier four, and gets the addition of the blinkers today which fills me with confidence. This looks to be the easiest race he has contested this prep, and gets in very well down in the weights. Progressing very well this prep, primed to run a very good race here! Selections: 8-6-4-3
Caulfield R7 #6 Shot Of Irish $4.40 at PlayUp – Shot Of Irish was very impressive when winning last start over the mile at Sandown on a heavy 9. He jumped straight to the lead and controlled the race perfectly, kicking clear on the turn and was no danger of being caught. For a very wet track, he recorded really good times, including a very solid last 600m sectional. The horse he beat that day in Duke Of Plumpton seems to have a fair share of talent, which makes Shot Of Irish’s win more impressive. He is likely to strip much fitter, and looks to peak again here third up. Rising up to the 1800m for the first time looks very suitable, and a the likelihood of a wetter track later on in the program plays into his favour nicely. Drawn very well in barrier two, maps to be up on speed again with minimal effort. The claim for T Nugent allows him to hold weight from last start. Great chance to make it two wins in a row. Selections: 6-9-10-11
Randwick R2 #8 Overlord $8.50 at PlayUp – I tipped this Chris Waller colt on debut back in April, and he put in a very sound performance. Got back on the day, and absolutely rocketed home through the line, unlucky not to finish even closer to the top pair. Gets to a bigger track here today in the Randwick course proper, and will undoubtedly take benefit from the debut run. From barrier 10 he gets back again, and should be running on very strongly. Extra distance suits, and the booking of H Bowman is a good push, he is riding in excellent form of late. Condition of the track, whether it be good or soft, is unlikely to phase this colt. Selections: 8-7-3-4
Randwick R3 #6 Adelong $2.50 at PlayUp – Ran as a short favourite last start and was rolled by Lesage, who conveniently lines up again here today. Adelong gave the winner a few lengths start and was unable to make up the ground on a track that is notorious for favouring the leader/on pace runners. Fitter for that effort and comes back to a much more suitable track. Drawn for a perfect run behind the speed from barrier two, he should be able to let down very well with clear running and can be winning. The bigger field today also plays in his favour, ensuring a genuinely run race. She is twice a winner at this 1100, and they were good wins too. J Mac sticks, top pick! Selections: 6-9-5-8