Racing

Best Bets 7th March 2020

The Autumn Carnival is in full swing today, headlined by four Group One races from around the country. At Flemington, it is Super Saturday, featuring the Newmarket Handicap for the sprinters, and the Australian Cup for the staying types. Big fields and competitive betting markets are sure to entice every punter at headquarters today. Then down to Randwick, where we see a number of quality horses face off in the Randwick Guineas and the Canterbury Stakes. With a huge number of other meetings also taking place around the country, it is set to be an outstanding day of racing. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby highlights five key bets that you should be having, as well as his thoughts in each of the Group 1 races today. Check it out below:

Flemington R4 #1 Spanish Reef $4.60 at PlayUp – Ken Keys looks to have placed this consistent mare perfectly here today. Comes to this race third up, after two very sound efforts, including a last start third  in the G3 Mannerism over 1400m. It was very hard to make ground that day, and I thought she ran on very nicely against the bias. Stepping up to the mile is ideal, she is a six-time winner over this distance. She maps to get the right run in transit from barrier 6, and the soft ground shouldn’t be an issue, late last year she ran 3rd to Melody Belle in a G1 over the mile on a soft 7. The way she has built into this race has been great, and today should be her time to get back into the winners stall. 

Flemington R5 #10 Wild Planet (BEST) $2.45 at PlayUp – It almost looks too perfect to be true the way this race sets up for this Hawkes’ trained gelding. He is third up sticking to the 1400m, which is his pet distance. Last start second up he ran 4th in the G1 Futurity Stakes, beaten by Super Seth, Melody Belle and Streets Of Avalon. He carried 59kg that day, and held ground very well through the line behind those horses. He strips even fitter third up here, and comes back from that G1 to a Listed race, and drops 5kg! Perfectly drawn in barrier 5 to get a lovely run, he has proven himself to run well on good, soft and heavy going. It is very rare you see a horse come back so far in grade, drop significantly in weight and not run well. It all just looks perfectly set up for him, would be a big shock if he didn’t win here. 

Flemington R7 #1 Rubisaki $3.20 at PlayUp – This 3YO filly for Patrick Payne is racing in the form of her life, dominating in a rich race at Warwick Farm last start to make it three wins in a row this preparation. Has been freshened and brought back to Melbourne since that win, and lines up here for her first attempt at group level racing. She was dominant in that win last start on a heavy 9, and has never missed the top two spots from five attempts on soft going, including three stylish wins. The track conditions should be absolutely no worries, and stepping up to the 1400m again suits. She is yet to lose at this distance from two attempts, and is very well off at the set weight penalty of 55.5kg. She doesn’t know how to lose at the moment, I can’t see why she won’t be very competitive again. 

Extra Flemington Tips

Randwick R1 #3 Fasika $2.50 at PlayUp – Joe Pride’s very talented mare Fasika returns for the start of her Autumn preparation. She only had three runs last prep, but they were very good, including a 2nd placing in the G2 Sheraco, and a 2nd paling in the Silver Eagle. First up here with a very good fresh record (2:1-1-0), she has been wound up with two lead up trials, so she should be ready to fire. There is good speed on paper with a number of horses looking to go forward, so she maps to settle right in behind that speed from barrier six. Has never lost on soft or heavy going, so the wet track poses little threat to her. The early money has been piled on, which gives me even more confidence that she is right in this race. 

Randwick R4 #1 Cosmic Force $5.50 at PlayUp – Comes here first up off a nice trial win over the 900m. This Snowden colt has a great first up record, never missing the top two from three attempts. Ran 2nd to Bivouac on a heavy8 first up two preps ago, a similar run to that would be very hard to beat in this race. Drawn to get a good run, 1100m suits and the current price is attractive.

Extra Randwick Tips