Best Bets 5th August 2020

Midweek racing for the first time of the new racing season, and keeping with the times of recent weeks, it looks to be another wet-track Wednesday of racing. Cranbourne, Canterbury, Sunshine Coast, Gawler and Belmont are the venues where we will see some action, and PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has cast his eye over all the races, and found five key bets to be having today. Check them out below.

Cranbourne R1 #1 Boss’n The Moss $2.60 at PlayUp – Tipping the favourite here in the opener could be hard to beat, especially with the rail out and the likelihood of a wet track nearing that heavy 8 range if the predicted rainfall arrives. Third up fit here with proven wet form, last start at Moe raced up on the speed and was only claimed in the final stages by one out wide. Comes back to 1500m here, but I think that will suit with his racing pattern. Expect him to take up the running and be hard to bet past. Up in weight, but D Oliver on. Selections: 1-11-6-3

Cranbourne R7 #11 La Lucciola $5.00 at PlayUp – Second up here, and coming off a pretty unlucky first up run at Bendigo last start in similar wet conditions. Got back behind midfield in the run, and had to be checked off the heels of the winner not once, but twice, approaching the 200m mark. She managed to pick herself up again and run second, making good headway through the line. Fitter now, and out to 1200m should help. As long as she has clear running in the straight this time I think she can go one better. Selections: 11-9-3-7

Canterbury R6 #5 Emeralds $3.40 at PlayUp – I was keen on the chances of this mare when she raced first up at Kensington over the 1100m in similar wet conditions. She was given way too much work to do from her settling position on that occasion, but ran home well into 4th. Stepping out to 1250m now and the blinkers go on, these are two massive keys for her winning chances. Likely to settle closer now with added sharpness, and the form out of the Kensington first up run is stacking up very well. Up in weight, but J McDonald takes the ride and should give her every chance. Worth noting she is a winner second up previously, so she can run well at this stage of her prep too. Selections: 5-4-9-10

Canterbury R7 #7 Rothenburg $4.20 at PlayUp – Comes here off a disappointing effort in a very good race at Rosehill last time out, where he just had a tendency to over-race at stages, and didn’t finish off as expected. As mentioned, that looks to be a very strong form race, so i’m keen to follow him here back in much easier midweek company. Two starts back he dominated a highway race at Rosehill in similar wet conditions, running a quicker time than the benchmark race on the day. His heavy form is exceptional, and i’m tipping he will be able to bounce back here in this easier assignment. Selections: 7-6-2-1

Sunshine Coast R8 #13 Modelka Bet Now at PlayUp – There was some good chat about the talent of this mare after a promising first campaign earlier this year, as she come out and won her first two races in good fashion, and then was very competitive in an open handicap event at Eagle Farm in only her third start. Put away after that, and returns here off the back of two trials. Her latest one at the Gold Coast was a 1L victory where she looked very smart. Settling last in the run, she came wide on the turn and went past the field under a big hold as if they were pinned to the fence. With any luck from the wide draw here, possibly biding her time off this strong tempo, I expect her to be very competitive. Selections: 13-4-9-8


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