Best Bets 30th September 2020

Midweek racing rolls around on the eve of our sports biggest month, but we have a great opportunity to send out September in style, by backing some winners all around the country. It is likely to be a wet affair at Ballarat, as they host the midweek gallops action in Victoria. Racing returns to the Kensington track in Sydney, while the Gold Coast hosts the action in Queensland. There is a rare midweek event from the nations capital Canberra, with racing also at Murray Bridge, and Geraldton in the west. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has found his five best plays of the day below.

Ballarat R1 #7 Redwood Shadow $3.00 at PlayUp – Keen on the chances of this progressive looking horse, who comes here second up off the back of an eye-catching run on debut. He got stuck in an awkward position in running over 1254m at Donald, and was very strong working to the line in between horses through the line. He ran the fastest last 200m sectional of the meeting, and the equal fastest last 400m of the race, which was won by Cambourne. That form has been franked, with Cambourne running well in much harder grade since then. Out to the mile here second up looks ideal, and there is chat about him being a rough Derby chance, so he definitely can be winning here. The obvious concern is the heavy track, if he is able to get through that, I think he wins. Selections: 7-6-5-4

Ballarat R7 #7 Steamboat Rock $2.60 at PlayUp – I was very keen on the chances of Steamboat Rock last start when racing first up at Geelong, and he was an absolute tragedy beaten. After jumping slowly, he had to ride for luck up the fence from last position, and never saw daylight until inside the last 100m, where he flashed home. Second up now out to a mile will suit well, the heavy track is no concern, as his only win last prep came on heavy. The booking of D Oliver is a big push, and hopefully with more luck in running today he can turn the result around. Selections: 7-12-3-10

Ballarat R8 #8 Sanctimonious $8.50 at PlayUp – Want to have something each way on Sanctimonious in the last, who I thought returned to the races very well last run. He was first up off a spell that lasted two years, and was obviously going to benefit from the run. I like the way he attacked the line, especially inside the last 50m making ground past some tiring horses. He is going to strip much fitter here second up, and I like the fact they have elected to keep him at the 1400m. Cambourne won that race first up, so the form line is strong, and he also has good heavy track form. On debut he was 2nd behind Written By on a wet track, and in fact all of his early form was behind top class 2 and 3 year olds. Selections: 8-10-11-2

Kensington R6 #9 Alchermes $12.00 at PlayUp – I was keen on Alchermes each way last start when she was first up, and although she didn’t get us the cash on that occasion, her run was most pleasing. She settled in an awkward midfield position on the fence, and was left in very restricted room in the straight. Despite this, she closed off very strongly through the line, and was right on the winners heels about 100m after the post. Out to 1300m really helps, and she has a lot of scope for improvement now second up. The wider draw this time I think is a positive, as she will be able to find a position off the fence, and build momentum out wider in the straight. She was a strong winner last prep second up, and back on a drying surface should help as well. Not sure why she is a double figure price here. Selections: 9-15-1-12

Kensington R7 #12 Acrophobic $4.00 at PlayUp – Acrophobic was given a mammoth, near impossible task to win last start when racing first up at Warwick Farm. He got a mile back in the run, and was clearly the most impressive horse in the race as he stormed down the outside to grab the 3rd position on the line. Sticking to equal grade and distance here, and will carry the same 55kg under James McDonald. He gets a 3kg weight swing on the winner now, and will have definitely improved into this second up run. Likely to get back again from barrier 12, he will be able to build momentum into this race, and I can see him being too strong down the outside. Selections: 12-8-3-7


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