Best Bets 25th April 2020

The main Sydney Carnival may be over, but don’t think for a second that the racing is slowing down. It’s Hawkesbury Gold Cup day, which has been transferred to be run at Rosehill due to Covid-19 regulations. The eight-race card features three Group3 races, and the Listed Hawkesbury Gold Rush. A number of high class horses are continuing their preparations, which means it should be a great day of racing. Flemington hosts its annual ANZAC Day meeting, which includes the running of the VRC St Leger, and the ANZAC Day Stakes. We get to see Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare go around in race 4, while potential G1 star Russian Camelot attempts to further stake his claims in race 5. Fine weather is predicted at both these venues, and is sure to provide great racing on a very important day in Australia’s history. The Adelaide carnival continues in full swing, with the running of the the G3 Breeder’s Stakes, and the G3 Chairman’s Stakes at Morphettville. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has identified five picks to be having today, see them below. 

Flemington R2 #7 Lamu $4.00 at PlayUp – Second up here after an eye-catching Australian debut at Sandown last start. After settling way back in the field in the 1300m journey, she peeled widest in the straight and made up a number of lengths down the outside, finishing just over a length off the winner. Comes here fitter and much improved for her first Australian experience, and steps out to the 1600m journey which will be very suitable. Her mile form in Europe was very good, with a maiden win and a Listed race placing over the journey. This is a harder race, but she drops 1kg from last start and gets the services of leading rider Craig Williams. Should get a great run from barrier one, and with open air in the straight, she can prove too good. 

Flemington R6 #8 Tarn’s Prince $14.00 at PlayUp – This is my value bet of the day, and I think he is going around over the odds, hence why i’ve highlighted him as an each way bet. His run second up from a freshen last start was enormous, he settled last in the run, and was forced to make a sustained wide run from before the turn in order to put himself into the race. Although beaten officially 4.5L, his effort was far better than what it reads on paper, seeing that Caulfield also had a large on-pace bias on the day. Third up here, and facing a number of the same rivals from last start, i’m tipping he may be able to turn the tables on them back here to a fairer and larger track. Basing my judgement off of last start, he is too far apart in the market from the others, and is a definite each way bet. 

Flemington R7 #1 The Inevitable $2.50 at PlayUp – With the scratching of other main rival All Too Royal, this race looks to have The Inevitable’s name written all over it. A horse who, on his day, is a serious G1 competitor, he lines up here first up from a freshen in an open handicap race. His fresh form is very good, as his his form at the track and distance. From barrier two he will be able to find cover behind horses down the straight, and if presented at the right time by rider Tahlia Hope (who also claims 2kg off his weight), he should be putting this field away. The drying Flemington surface will be suitable, and the step back to 1000m off the freshen seems to be a very logical move. 

Rosehill R3 #10 Grand Piano $3.40 at PlayUp or $4.60 as this is the PlayUp Play Of The Day – Looks very well weighted and very well placed coming back from a great run in the G3 Carbine, to this BM78. Earlier in this prep he won two on the bounce, and won them really well. Fourth up into his prep now, he is sure to be rock hard fit after not having struck a dry ground yet in this preparation. Back to 1500m suits, he is definitely sharp enough to be forward for the journey, and he looks the class of the field. He only rises 2kg from last start, and Nash Rawiller jumps back aboard. Any luck from barrier 13, he will be right on the money.

Rosehill R6 #14 Icebath $5.00 at PlayUp – As we all know, Icebath has not been able to find much luck so far this prep. On a couple of occasions, she has found trouble at crucial stages of the race, and has had to settle for minor prize money. Fifth up here today, right at the peak of her preparation, and very importantly is holding weight from last start. She finished 2nd to Indy Car, who has to rise 3kg here in this race, which means Icebath gets a very good 3kg weight swing now. Glenn Boss sticks with the ride, and is riding in very good form. From barrier 7 she should be able to find a very good spot midfield with cover, and hopefully with even luck she will be in the finish again. 


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