Best Bets 21st October 2020

Midweek racing takes us to Geelong for their annual midweek cup day meeting. A number of exciting international gallopers begin their Spring campaigns in the cup, while there are 8 other strong races on the card to accompany it. Kensington takes centre stage in NSW, while there is also racing from Naracoorte, Ipswich and Ascot. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has identified his five best of the day below.

Geelong R1 #2 Excelman $2.25 at PlayUp – Very surprised to see that Excelman has opened above even money here, and so I think anything above that is a very good bet. Comes off a dominant 2L win at Cranbourne over 2000m, and although he rises in grade here I think he strikes a very weak bm70, and should have no problem with holding the 60kg from the previous start. 2400m at this stage of the prep now looks ideal, D Oliver sticks on board and he draws perfectly in barrier 5. Would be very surprised if anything in this field is able to beat him here. Selections: 1-7-9-6

Geelong R2 #3 Scottish Dancer $2.40 at PlayUp – Third up here, coming off a last start victory in equal grade over a mile at Cranbourne. He sat behind midfield on that occasion, and had to come wide and swoop for victory off the back of only an even tempo set in front. His final 100m was very strong over the top of the others. Third up now and out even further to 1700m will be ideal, and the wide draw is preferred as he races in a get-back style of pattern anyway. Rises up 2kg in weight from the last start win, but he has city-class ability in my opinion, and with enough speed on in front here should be able to replicate the last start tactics for another victory. Selections: 3-10-8-11

Geelong R9 #2 Playoffs $7.50 at PlayUp – Going with Playoffs each way here in the last, in what looks one of the races of the day on paper. First up from a spell, and has been given two jump outs over 850m and 950m in preparation for this. In the latest one at Ballarat, he was all over heels in the straight and never got a clear run through the line, but looked to have a bit to give. He started last prep with two straight wins, one of which came at this 1400m distance, so you know he is able to run well fresh over this shorter trip. The claim helps his weight, and there looks to be enough speed drawn inside him that he can shuffle in behind and find cover. Well suited in this grade and can be competitive here. Selections: 2-6-11-14

Kensington R7 #12 Wild Chap $10.00 at PlayUp – Keen to play each way again here in the last, with Wild Chap who is currently racing very well on the country circuit. Fifth up here and will undoubtedly be at the peak of his preparation in terms of form and fitness, and sticks to the suitable 1400m trip. The main reason he goes on top here is due to the fact that he looks a genuine leader in a race that maps to be really devoid of tempo. After the 3kg claim for Cejay Graham, who is a solid front-running rider, he will carry next to no weight, and should be able to dictate the race from the front. If he can control the tempo in the lead and begin to slip away on the turn with some momentum, it could be very hard for anything in the field to run him down. Looks a great 1×3 bet at the current quote.


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