Best Bets 18th November 2020

Midweek racing from all around the country today, our main venues are Mornington, Wyong, Ipswich, Strathalbyn, Ascot and Launceston which holds a twilight meeting. Happy Valley also kicks off later in the day, with a 9 race card in Hong Kong. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has cast his eye over the Melbourne and Sydney meetings, and found five key bets to be having.

Mornington R2 #5 Divine Wit $6.00 at PlayUp – Happy to have a bet on this debutant from the David & Coral Feel yard, who has really impressed me at the jump outs in preparation for this debut run. He has had three jump outs leading in, the latest on the 28th of October at Mornington was very sharp. He ran the 2nd fastest time of the morning over the 900m journey, and easily accounted for Suprina from the Freedman yard, who has strong 2yo form lines in city class races. Divine Wit has exceptional tactical speed, and I expect them to use that here and jump straight to the front from barrier 6. There doesn’t look a whole lot of other speed on paper, so he could be awarded a very soft time in front. Rider J Noonan has a great strike rate for this stable, expecting a big debut on his home track. Selections: 5-8-11-7

Mornington R4 #11 Miss Armstrong $8.00 at PlayUp – Another at some ok odds that I want to speck, I thought Miss Armstrong had a genuine winning chance here second up. Was on debut last start here at Mornington over 1200m, and settled in a very awkward position back in the field buried away on the fence. She never had clear running, and was basically untested over the final 100m. She made good ground under her own steam, and had she been fully tested I think she finishes much closer. Up to 1500m now with race experience, draws barrier one again and I dare say they try to ride a touch closer this time, so as not to be caught in that awkward position again. Returning to the track is always a positive, tipping she can go close here. Selections: 11-2-5-7

Mornington R8 #8 Brazen Song $4.20 at PlayUp – Thought this S Nichols mare deserved to be much closer to the top few in the market here, and so she looks a bet at the current price. Last start she was first up at this track and distance, and had to work very hard to eventually settle outside the lead. They went quick through the middle stages and she faded late to finish 7th, but only beaten 2L in a blanket finish. Second up now and will strip much fitter, she sticks to 1200m which should suit, and from barrier one is likely to get up on speed far easier than last start. She also drops down to a bm64, and will only carry 0.5kg extra thanks to the claim for Matt Cartwright, meaning she is exceptionally weighted at this level. Her two career wins have come on dry ground, and I think she can win here. Selections: 8-3-9-10

Wyong R5 #1 Aspect Ratio $2.50 at PlayUp – I think it’s finally time for this mare to return to the winners stall, contesting this event over the mile it what seems to be the easiest race she has faced in a while. She won at this track and distance earlier in the prep, recording a dominant 4L victory that day in drying conditions. She then has form behind Invinciano and Luvoir in subsequent runs, who are city class gallopers. With any luck in running from barrier 10, there is a solid chance class will prevail and she will come out on top here. Selections: 1-6-3-10

Wyong R7 #2 Big Bad Bruce $4.80 at PlayUp – Confident that Big Bad Bruce will show some sharp improvement here second up, coming off a 5th place run when fresh last start in heavy conditions at Kembla. Getting back on to the drying surface with extra fitness will be key here, as he has finished inside placings eight out of twelve attempts on good ground. His second up record is strong, reading 3:1-0-2, and sticking to the 1200m should be no issue. Looks to map nicely from barrier two, they will likely be positive from the gates and find a position in behind the speed, rather than risk being caught back in the ruck buried away. Any luck finding clear running in the straight and he should be right in the finish. Selections: 2-4-5-12


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