Midweek selections from the PlayUp form analyst
Pakenham R2 #7 Mister Fairbanks $10.00 at PlayUp – Great each way play here in the second race, with Mister Fairbanks coming off an unlucky fifth placing at Cranbourne last start. He was forced to sit last from the wide draw, and the leader went a slow tempo in front which didn’t help his winning chances. He elected to save ground up the inside rather than swooping around heels, and was completely hard held the entire way through the line with no clear passage. He still managed to somehow run the fourth fastest last 200m split of the entire day, and with clear running I think he wins. Great chance to atone here third up.
Pakenham R4 #10 Adament $5.00 at PlayUp – Racing well this prep, including a first up win and two second placings in her last two runs at Moe and Stawell. The Moe run was super unlucky, after getting taken very wide on the turn she flew home in meeting fastest last 200m split but just missed on the line. Again, got too far back at Stawell last time out under an apprentice rider and just couldn’t make up the ground. Deep into the prep here, gets a senior rider back aboard and should appreciate getting out to 1200m now in a very winnable race.
Pakenham R6 #1 Arctic Eagle $5.50 at PlayUp – Fourth up here, and was super unlucky not to win last start here over the 1200m, and that was off the back of a dominant maiden win two runs ago. I think he is a 4yo who is learning all the time, still showing he is a touch raw and figuring out what its all about as if he ran straight last start he probably wins. He managed to run meeting fastest sectionals at Mornington when winning two starts ago, albeit he was all over the track and very raw through the line. Up to 1400m now is perfect, and he gets Ben Melham back aboard.
Gosford R1 #1 Celestial Fury $3.30 at PlayUp – Looks to have finally found his mojo since moving to the Nathan Doyle yard, coming off a dominant all-the-way win two runs ago here at Gosford, and a flying effort last start at Wyong. He sat near last in running after not being able to find a forward position, and flew through the line late especially his work inside the last 100m being ultra impressive. He looks to be crying out for this genuine staying trip, and with the perfect draw off barrier one I think he will be far too good for these. This is a horse who was contesting genuine black-type races back in Melbourne.
Gosford R2 #4 State Of America $5.00 at PlayUp – Second up and ready to win, coming off a promising first up run at Warwick Farm over 1400m. He started a big price there, but defied that easily coming from last to grab a minor placing, and ran the third fastest last furlong of the entire day in the process. Second up fitter, and out to a mile now looks perfect. He can position much closer in running from barrier one, and should be right there at the end.
