Best Bets 23rd September 2020

One of the great days of midweek racing of the entire Spring carnival, as racing comes to Flemington for an action-packed day of competitive racing. The standouts are the Kennedy Oaks and Victoria Derby trials, and we also get to see the first crop of 2 year old horses step out over 900m in race one. Racing in Sydney takes place at Canterbury on a quickly drying track, meanwhile our other meetings are at Eagle Farm, Strathalbyn, Belmont and Happy Valley in Hong Kong. Take a look at PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby’s top five bets for the day.

Flemington R1 #7 Umgawa $13.00 at PlayUp – Always love to see what happens in the first 2yo race of the season, as the babies line up here for the first time over the 900m. I thought Umgawa looked good value, his jump out down the Flemington straight in behind a few of these competitors looked quite strong. While the others such as Finance Tycoon and The Globe were ridden out through the line, Umgawa was able to hold ground on them about 2L away without every being placed under pressure. I think the booking of Craig Williams is a good push, as he would be keen to get on top of a good chance here. Hoping the 900m isn’t too short, have an each way play. Selections: 8-2-3-10

Flemington R3 #4 The Brumby $3.40 at PlayUp – Second up from a freshen here, and put in a very eye catching performance first up at Sandown behind Aysar. After settling last in the running behind a slow tempo, he rattled off some solid late sectionals to finish within 0.5L of the winner, and was in front not far after the post. He ran the fastest last 400m and 200m of the entire meeting as well. Out to 1400m now is perfect, he is likely to get back again from barrier 10 but they should go at enough speed here to give him a chance to run on. Selections: 4-3-9-11

Flemington R5 #14 Hasstobegood $11.00 at PlayUp – Ex-NZ mare with some really strong form lines comes here and lines up for her Australian debut, now under the care of Grahame Begg. She competed at a really strong level in NZ, finishing 3rd in the Karaka Millions behind Probabeel, and 3rd in the G3 Bonecrusher as well. Her maiden win came over 1200m, so i’m hoping the 1100m here in what looks a solidly run race should be no problem. Her two jump outs have been very strong up on speed, including finishing a very close 2nd in a jump out that was run in quicker time to the one that Beehunter won on the same morning. Should be able to find the best part of the track from barrier 13, i’m very happy to play at double figures. Selections: 14-11-7-3

Flemington R7 #7 Chuck A Luck $4.40 at PlayUp – I’ve always had a lot of time for Chuck A Luck as a progressive middle distance horse, and I feel he gets a very good chance to break through again here in this race. Last start at Cranbourne over 1400m he was hard ridden and 3L off the second last horse as they approached the turn, and ended up charging through the line to run 2nd under a length. He had no right to finish as close as he did, and is clearly crying out for a rise in trip. He comes out to 1600m now third up, and the blinkers going on should sharpen him right up. Should be running home very strongly from behind midfield. Selections: 7-19-8-11

Canterbury R7 #9 Achiever $6.50 at PlayUp – Coming here third up off the back of a very sound effort at this track and distance last start, finishing second behind Baanone. Third up and looks very well suited here sticking to the 1550m with added fitness. Form last prep behind Peltzer and Overlord reads very nicely for a race of this nature, and with the likely chance of Kingsheir going down to Melbourne, that leaves Achiever in a perfect position to be able to take this race out. Quinella with Kingsheir if he happens to remain in Sydney, as he would be very hard to beat.


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