Best Bets 14th October 2020

If this card of midweek racing doesn’t cure the hump day blues, I don’t hold much hope! Only on rare occasions do we get to see some serious group level action on a Wednesday, and at Caulfield we have a number of black type events, including the G3 Ladies’ Day Vase, and the G3 Coongy Cup in which the winner gets an automatic ticket into the Caulfield Cup. Racing also takes place at Warwick Farm, and Hamilton in country Victoria hosts their annual cup meeting. Port Lincoln, Ipswich, Ascot and Launceston round out an unreal 56 races over the entire day. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has identified his five best below.

Caulfield R3 #3 Gamay $4.00 at PlayUp – Third up here, was very brave just getting done in the final stride behind Affair To Remember over the mile at Flemington. She had a good run back in behind the pack, and there is a case to be made that rider Declan Bates just pushed the button on her a fraction early, which left her a sitting target at the end of the race. Even fitter now and out to Caulfield 2000m, where is one from one, and that was a G3 success. Drops 0.5kg, and I thought she was holding off Grand Promenade well enough last start to say that they should be closer in the market. May elect to roll forward and be positive from wide, I think that will help with this rail position a long way out. Selections: 3-2-4-9

Caulfield R5 #7 Saracen Knight $2.70 at PlayUp – The win of this Camelot gelding last start over 2000m here at Caulfield was nothing short of a thriller. Irish Flame looked to have it all sewn up, before Saracen Knight dropped from the cloud and nailed it on the post. He ran the quickest last 200m sectional of the race by roughly 3.5L. Third up now and fitter again, and out to 2400m here will suit even more. He was a dominant winner at handicap level over this trip back in Europe, and should be afforded a lovely run from barrier four. He can easily figure in some nicer staying races throughout the Spring off the back of a win here. Selections: 7-2-8-12

Caulfield R7 #9 Affair To Remember $6.00 at PlayUp – Would be amiss to tip Gamay early in the day, and not be keen on the chances of the horse who knocked it off in Affair To Remember. Got back to last in running over the mile at Flemington, and absolutely launched home with some serious closing sectionals. She ran the 2nd fastest last 400m/200m of the entire meeting, only bested by the debutant in the opening race over 900m. It was some serious speed late, and she is now fourth up peak fit, sticking to the mile, and is perfectly weighted here in G3 level. There is no doubts she has the class to win this, after all she is a previous G1 placegetter. There is a stack of speed on here, I expect them to go very quick in front, which will be perfect for getting off the speed and flying home again. Selections: 9-2-4-11

Warwick Farm R6 #7 More Sundays $12.00 at PlayUp – Looking at the form guide, you’ll see a big DQ next to the last start run of More Sundays, as rider Grant Buckley weighed in under his allocated weight. The run apart from that, though, was actually very strong. Not an ideal stable debut for Sam Kavanagh obviously, but this son of More Joyous does have some talent, and now second up in town, sticking to 1100m, drawn very well in barrier two and gets the services of N Rawiller, they are all massive positives. His Melbourne form lines are very strong, and although he wasn’t getting extremely close to winning down there, any of those runners would be starting $1.10 in this kind of field. I have him marked in single figures, looks an each way bet! Selections: 7-3-6-5

Warwick Farm R7 #2 Testifier $3.40 at PlayUp – Ran 2nd last start over 1250m off the back of a pretty lengthy spell, was ridden up to hold the lead and condition clearly just gave out inside the last 100m. Second up now and will strip much fitter for that run, and from barrier one can boot up and sit handy this time without using as much gas. He is a lightly raced 5yo that the Hawkes’ team has clearly taken their time with, but his first three career wins indicate he has above average talent. J McDonald now takes the ride here, which can only be a positive, and I’m comfortable to take the current price on offer. Selections: 2-8-4-3


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