Best Bets 14th November 2020

A big Saturday of racing upon us, and although the main part of the Spring carnival is over, there is still extremely competitive racing in some strong cards in Sydney and Melbourne. The second running of The Hunter will take place at Newcastle, a $1 million race which is tipped as becoming “The Everest carnival of the bush”. There is 10 races at Sandown in Victoria, including the G2 Zipping Classic, and Listed Sandown Cup. Over in the west at Ascot, their carnival is really starting to take shape. A nine race program includes three Group 3 races and a Listed Ascot Gold Cup. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby has found five key bets to have on Saturday, see them below.

Newcastle R4 #14 Stolen Jade $12.00 at PlayUp – Keen on a small each way play with Stolen Jade here, who comes off a stylish first up victory at Gosford over the 1200m. Her two trials leading into that first up performance had put the writing on the wall, looking very strong in both Warwick Farm heats. Second up now, and sticking to the 1200m will suit. Obviously this is a much tougher assignment here, and she will need some luck jumping from barrier 12, but she will only carry 54.5kg, and with some even luck in running she definitely can be fighting out the finish. Selections: 14-1-9-10

Newcastle R8 #7 Strawb $3.50 at PlayUp – Very talented Fastnet Rock mare returns to the races here, coming off two Gosford 1000m trials which is sure to have tuned her right up for this. Her first up record is extremely strong, with four starts for three wins, as is her record at this trip. Last prep she resumed with a dominant win as favourite at this track and distance, so on paper she looks hard to beat. Mapping very well from barrier five, the dry track will really help her cause, and she could prove too good here in bm78 fillies and mares grade. Selections: 7-11-2-3

Newcastle R9 #14 Two Big Fari $5.00 at PlayUp – Second up here, coming off a gallant 2nd behind It’s Me in the Kosciuszko last start, finishing only 1.5L behind after sitting outside the lead. A tick over trial in the interim was strong, and is sure to have brought him on even further. A good second up record of 2:1-1-0, but the biggest selling point here is that he maps for another very good run on pace after jumping from barrier three. He will be able to work forward with no pressure, and should be there at the business end. One from one at 1300m, and has placed at the track before.

Sandown R1 #5 Forbes $2.70 at PlayUp – No surprise to see a stack of early support coming for this James Harron owned, Freedman trained son of Capitalist. He comes into this debut run off the back of two Mornington jump outs, none more impressive than the latest. He wanted to throw the head around midfield, and once in the straight went past them under no pressure very stylishly. Sam Freedman was quoted saying that out of their two year old stocks, Forbes is clearly the most impressive and forward at this current time. Should be able to find a nice spot from barrier 7, and hopefully will be able to produce the acceleration he showed in the jump outs. Current favourite Brazen Boy is taking up too much market percentage, which means all the better price for Forbes! Selections: 5-4-1-3

Sandown R7 #5 Sin To Win $3.70 at PlayUp – I see absolutely no reason to jump off Sin To Win here, who came out at Flemington last start in lower grade and absolutely blew them away, which is something he had been expected/hoping to do since his campaign started back in March. He got awfully close all throughout the winter in some good form lines, and last starts win should give him a world of confidence. Up to 3200m here is no concern, not only is he unbeaten at this trip from one attempt, but the way he savaged the line over 2800m last time shows that he is definitely ready for this staying journey again. Barrier two a touch awkward if getting back, will need a good ride from L Currie, but with even luck I expect he wins again. Selections: 5-3-2-4


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