CHRISTMAS comes early for Melbourne punters, with the re-opening of the city aligned with the G1 Manikato night into G1 Cox Plate day, one of the most timeless features on the Australian racing calendar.
Eighteen races are set to be decided around The Valley within the space of 24 hours, which means plenty of punting opportunities to be had. Check out the PlayUp form analyst thoughts below, including two selections from ’The Invitation’ day at Royal Randwick.
The Valley:
R4 #5 Athelric $10.00 @ PlayUp
Can’t believe the price about the Godolphin runner here in Athletic, who has been in solid form this prep so far. Two starts back he was a certainty beaten at this track and distance, held up on the turn but flew home through the line to run 2nd. He actually beat Generation on that day, and the price discrepancy between the two runners is outrageous. He was very good late behind Lightsaber last start, who has since been G1 competitive. Gets another suck run from barrier two here, and now fourth up ready to peak can win with even luck.
Can’t believe the price about the Godolphin runner here in Athletic, who has been in solid form this prep so far. Two starts back he was a certainty beaten at this track and distance, held up on the turn but flew home through the line to run 2nd. He actually beat Generation on that day, and the price discrepancy between the two runners is outrageous. He was very good late behind Lightsaber last start, who has since been G1 competitive. Gets another suck run from barrier two here, and now fourth up ready to peak can win with even luck.
R6 #5 Elephant $2.25 @ PlayUp
Getting into a short quote now but Elephant looks the standout winner of the G2 Crystal Mile here. This horse has been excellent since moving to Australia, winning two from four including a dominant G3 Sandown Stakes win over the 1500m. He gave some very good horses weight last start in the G1 Toorak, and knocked up late after getting caught wide without cover. Peaks here, drawn perfectly in barrier two and his 2nd placing at this track and trip behind Superstorm, while also beating Nonconformist The Chosen One, is a G1 form line. Any repeat of that has him hard to beat.
Getting into a short quote now but Elephant looks the standout winner of the G2 Crystal Mile here. This horse has been excellent since moving to Australia, winning two from four including a dominant G3 Sandown Stakes win over the 1500m. He gave some very good horses weight last start in the G1 Toorak, and knocked up late after getting caught wide without cover. Peaks here, drawn perfectly in barrier two and his 2nd placing at this track and trip behind Superstorm, while also beating Nonconformist The Chosen One, is a G1 form line. Any repeat of that has him hard to beat.
R9 (The Cox Plate) #9 Anamoe $3.30 @ PlayUp
Very keen on the 3yo to take out this years Cox Plate, a race that is not usually dominated by younger horses. However, with the exclusion of any top line international raiders, the late scratching of Gold Trip, and the question marks around the favourite Zaaki after he was beaten last start, this looks like the prime time for Godolphin to win this with a very smart 3yo carrying only 49.5kg. His Caulfield Guineas win was outstanding, and the small field with a moderately run race should allow him to see out 2040m. The booking of C Williams an added bonus.
Very keen on the 3yo to take out this years Cox Plate, a race that is not usually dominated by younger horses. However, with the exclusion of any top line international raiders, the late scratching of Gold Trip, and the question marks around the favourite Zaaki after he was beaten last start, this looks like the prime time for Godolphin to win this with a very smart 3yo carrying only 49.5kg. His Caulfield Guineas win was outstanding, and the small field with a moderately run race should allow him to see out 2040m. The booking of C Williams an added bonus.
*Note: Zaaki scratched early this morning.
Randwick:
R7 #2 Cepheus $5.50 @ PlayUp
Keen on this OTI runner in Cepheus to go a few better than last start when finishing 3rd in the G2 Hill Stakes. He ran well above market expectations on that occasion, and it is a strong form reference including Think it Over and Shared Ambition. Now finds an easier race, fourth up and out to 2400m is very suitable. Will get back regardless from the wide draw, but I envision a strong tempo being set by Hush Writer and Achiever up front. Gets his desired dry surface, and with the drop in weight as well can be winning here.
Keen on this OTI runner in Cepheus to go a few better than last start when finishing 3rd in the G2 Hill Stakes. He ran well above market expectations on that occasion, and it is a strong form reference including Think it Over and Shared Ambition. Now finds an easier race, fourth up and out to 2400m is very suitable. Will get back regardless from the wide draw, but I envision a strong tempo being set by Hush Writer and Achiever up front. Gets his desired dry surface, and with the drop in weight as well can be winning here.
R9 #2 Nudge $11.00 @ PlayUp
Thought Nudge was a good each way play in the feature event of the afternoon, coming off an excellent return to racing at Caulfield last start in a G3 event. She got back in the field behind a very slow early speed, meaning it was always going to be hard for her to run on and win from that position. She was super strong through the line, running the third fastest last 200m split of the entire day and was in front past the post. Second up now, she is a very classy horse who was 2nd in a G1 in Brisbane last prep over this 1400m, and just needs to be able to run on from the wide draw. Cracking race, but she is a big chance.
Thought Nudge was a good each way play in the feature event of the afternoon, coming off an excellent return to racing at Caulfield last start in a G3 event. She got back in the field behind a very slow early speed, meaning it was always going to be hard for her to run on and win from that position. She was super strong through the line, running the third fastest last 200m split of the entire day and was in front past the post. Second up now, she is a very classy horse who was 2nd in a G1 in Brisbane last prep over this 1400m, and just needs to be able to run on from the wide draw. Cracking race, but she is a big chance.
