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NBA Preview: 7th February

WE’RE ready for another week of NBA action as we countdown towards the 2022 All-Star Weekend.

Let’s take a look at today’s best bet for punters;

Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks

ATLANTA looks to wrap up a two-game road trip as they take on the Mavericks in Dallas. The Hawks will once gain play with a rest disadvantage with this game being their third in four nights and their fourth in six.

On the season the Hawks have struggled to get up in these negative rest spots, particularly on the road. Atlanta is covering at 35% on the road as an underdog and only 38% with a rest disadvantage.

We will once again be treated to the battle of the top tier talent of the 2019 draft when Trae Young and Luka Doncic go at each other. This matchup sets up to be a real battle for bragging rights and always carries a bit of feeling about it.

Atlanta have been one of the best performing offensive teams in the league this season.Lead by 2x All-Star guard Trae Young, this offence has been clicking on all cylinders and have the parts to score effectively in the halfcourt, which is where they run most of their offensive sets.  Having solid contributors like Clint Capella, John Collins and Kevin Huerter helps add levels to their scoring with strong rim running options, pick and roll and a strong interior and outside shooting.  The problem has been their impact without the ball. Their defence has been poor this season, rating 27th overall in the league.

The Hawks have been deadly from deep, shooting the three at nearly 39% and rank second in the league. Their problems offensively have come when the three ball isn’t falling for them.

Atlanta is just 3-12 Straight Up when opponents hold them under 33% from three. Their opponents, Dallas, are elite at doing exactly that and rate in the top-five for opponent accuracy and frequency from three.

The Mavs bounced back strong against Philly their last time out after dropping a pair of very average performances against lesser sides in Orlando and Oklahoma City.

Dallas’s strength this season has come from reducing second chance opportunities for their opponents by reducing turnovers and boxing out opponents to secure defensive rebounds. They allow the third least opponent offensive rebounds per game while committing the third least number of turnovers. This has significantly reduced the amount of fastbreak opportunities they allow and force teams to have to play against their set defence.

While Atlanta have been a quality offensive unit in half court sets, their poor defence is ultimately the biggest difference maker in this game.  As long as we don’t see positive three point shooting variance on the Hawks offence, Dallas should be able to make things as tough as possible for Atlanta in that regard and then take advantage at the other end of the court.

I make Dallas -4.5 point favourites when factoring in fatigue for the travelling Hawks side.

Our best bet: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 $1.87 at PlayUp



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