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NBA Preview: 13th December

TIME to look forward to a new week in the NBA as we look to keep things rolling.

We have your best bet covered as we take a look at the best value in this six-game slate.

New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio welcome the travelling New Orleans Pelicans as both teams look to find some consistency in the early goings on the season.

San Antonio will play the second game of a back-to-back after being dismantled by the Denver Nuggets.  This game marks a significant rest disadvantage spot for the Spurs as they play their fifth game in only seven nights.  New Orleans, on the other hand, having played only two games in the last six days should have fresh legs as they enter a positive scheduling spot.

Both teams have had their fair share of offensive struggles to date, ranking in the bottom third of the league scoring the basketball. A low frequency of their shots come from beyond the arc and neither team have converted on these chances accurately.

The road team run a high percentage of their plays in half court sets where they struggle to break down opposition defence and lack the ability to score in isolation. Their lack of scoring from deep has also impacted their ability to effectively attack and score at the rim.  This has seen them settle for inefficient mid-range scoring and created a one-dimensional offence as a result.

Although San Antonio haven’t done a great job defensively, coming up against such a basic offence makes things much easier to defend.  The Spurs rank amongst the leagues best at rim protection and defending without fouling, key components in their matchup today.

The Spurs also have a strong transition defence where they can ensure this doesn’t turn into and up-and-down shootout.

Both of these sides rate amongst the bottom third of the league in pace.  As we look at this game we can expect to see fewer than 100 possessions for each side.  Slower pace, coupled with inefficient scoring and ineffective half court scoring, is more than enough reason to look at the inflated total being too high.

I have this total at 210 so we are getting some great value on the market currently.

Our best bet: Under 220.5 points $1.92 at PlayUp


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