Today’s selections from Pakenham and Warwick Farm:
Pakenham Race 3 #5 Next Stop Berrima $1.95 at PlayUp – Looks very hard to beat here does the Al Maher gelding for S Eden, coming off an encouraging debut 3rd behind Sun Samurai at Geelong. After getting a perfect one-one trail throughout, he actually lost ground on the turn and looked in big trouble, before rallying hard inside the L200m and getting within a length of the winner. With added race fitness and experience, the step out to 1400m looks ideal, and trials in Sydney last prep indicate that soft ground is no issue. Maps to get the gun run again looks too good.
Pakenham Race 5 #8 Sweet Sixteen $7.50 at PlayUp – Lot of respect for the favourite here who could be hard to beat, but with some great value flying around within the race outside of the favourite, I’ve elected to go with Sweet Sixteen each way. She is flying this prep for the Snowden team, coming into this third-up off two straight wins. The fastest way at the track and trip here, where she settled last off a slow tempo and picked them up with ease in the straight, pulling clear for an effortless victory. She does have to rise in weight here for a harder event, but will get a stronger tempo to suit, has form here, and the wet track likewise suits. Also could entertain a bet on #13 La Isla Bonita ($31.00 at PlayUp) each way who dominated the last start and should race up on speed here again.
Pakenham Race 7 #3 Lady D’oro / #10 Make Mine Henessy $5.50/$9.00 at PlayUp – Once again angling for value, away from a favourite who is the little sister to Surprise Baby and could be very talented. But off the figures from her unbeaten two career wins, I can’t get her as short as even money. Lady D’oro comes here second-up off a super run at Sale over the 1210m. She settled last and, against the on-pace bias of the day, rocketed home to grab a minor spot when not entitled to. She was a winner second-up last prep and has run well on the wet ground before. Similar story to Make Mine Hennessy, who resumed the last start with a very high rating placing at Bendigo over 1300m. She came from last against a slow tempo and almost won. They both come to 1400m which suits, and look better value outside a short favourite.
Warwick Farm Race 5 #4 Mercurial Lad $21.00 at PlayUp – Would be silly not to have something each way on the Joseph/Jones runner here in Mercurial Lad, who plain and simple is just a heavy track star. Forget his last run in the Murrumbidgee Cup, he was caught wide the entire way with 61kg on his back on a good 4 surface and never factored. His heavy record stands at 9:5-0-1 and is a Bega Cup winner on a heavy 8 over the mile at BM89 level. With the claim here and the better draw, it is hard to see him not running a bold race here at midweek level. The Joseph/Jones team are no stranger to pulling off a good sting like this either.
Warwick Farm Race 6 #7 Dual Escape $17.00 at PlayUp – Another big odds each-way play here, with Dual Escape looking very attractive in the market at double figures. Her three runs since a freshen have been very encouraging, including a Wyong 1100m win on a heavy 9, and the last start only finished 1.4L off Strawb here over 1200m, which is a handy form line. She is rock hard fit with an outstanding heavy record that reads three wins from seven attempts. Drawn perfectly in barrier 8 to find better ground, holds weight and should be around the money again.
