AFL Week 1 Betting Previews + TipsBy Jason Valles, Guest Blogger
The first round of AFL usually goes to plan with 1 or 2 “where did that come from” moments. I’m not going to overthink it, here are my tips for the first round of AFL 2020. All odds are taken from PlayUp on the 5th Feb 2020.
Richmond Tigers $1.25 vs Carlton Blues $4.00 @ the MCG Line: -25.5 @ $1.90 vs +25.5 @ $1.90 The Tigers are coming off a premiership season and have beaten the Blues on the last 5 outings by an average of 31 points. Although the Blues improved towards the back end of 2019 with the appointment of a new coach, there is no reason to overthink this one. Blues have a great young list and they have the potential to make some big strides this season, but it will be up and done for the young side in 2020. Bet: Tigers -25.5 @ $1.90
Western Bulldogs $2.25 vs Collingwood Magpies $1.65 @ Marvel Stadium Line: +8.5 @ $1.90 vs -8.5 @ $1.90 The Bulldogs had a fairly lackluster 2019 whilst Collingwood finished in the top 4 and made their way to a preliminary final only for their season to end in a 4 point loss to GWS. If this game was at the MCG then I would be backing Collingwood at the line comfortably, but it’s at Marvel Stadium where Bulldogs tend to play their best footy. Bet: Pies H2H @ $1.65
Essendon Bombers $1.45 vs Fremantle Dockers $2.70 @ Marvel Stadium Line: -14.5 @ $1.90 vs +14.5 @ $1.90 Two teams that had average seasons even though Bombers snuck into the eight before getting a 50 point spanking from West Coast in the first week of finals.Both teams have made changes and look to improve in 2020. Eyes will be on Fremantle with Justin Longmuir taking over coaching duties from Ross Lyon. A tough game to pick as both teams will want to start the season strong. Bet: Freo +14.5 @ 1.90
Adelaide Crows $1.60 vs Sydney Swans $2.35 @ Adelaide Oval Line: -9.5 @ $1.90 vs +9.5 @ $1.90 Both teams usually consistently push for finals, but last year can only be described as a disaster for both and I don’t see anything improving for either team in 2020. I’ll stick with the home side. Bet: Crows -9.5 @ $1.90
Gold Coast Suns $2.90 vs Port Adelaide Power $1.42 @ Metricon Line: +17.5 @ $1.90 vs -17.5 @ $1.90 The Power will look to improve on a season where they just missed out on finals, and for the wooden spooners Gold Coast, the only way is up they would be hoping. The Power have won the last 5 match-ups by an average of almost 10 goals. The Suns are full of young kids and they still have a long way to go before they become a force in the AFL. Bet: Power -17.5 @ $1.90
GWS Giants $1.72 vs Geelong Cats $2.15 @ Giants Stadium Line -5.5 @ $1.90 vs +5.5 @ $1.90 GWS came from 6th place to make the grand final in 2019 only to get embarrassingly destroyed by the Richmond Tigers. Geelong finished as minor premiers only to falter and lose in week 1 and in week 3 of the finals. Both high achieving teams would be very disappointed with what could have been. This should be a very tight and entertaining game, but the younger legs of GWS at home should be enough. Bet: Giants @ $1.72
North Melbourne Kangaroos $2.10 vs St Kilda Saints $1.75 @ Marvel Stadium Line: +4.5 @ $1.90 vs -4.5 @ $1.90 one win separated these two teams in 2019, both had extreme highs and extreme lows with the Roos finishing 12th and the Saints finishing 14th. I think Saints have the most potential with their current roster to push for finals, but I’m not overly confident with picking a winner here…but I will. Bet: Saints -4.5 @ $1.90
Hawthorn Hawks $1.85 vs Brisbane Lions $1.95 @ York Park (TAS) Line: -1.5 @ $1.90 vs +1.5 @ $1.90 Two contrasting teams here, Hawks who have had a decade of dominance and are hanging onto that success by a thread, and the Lions who dominated in the early 2000’s and then have fallen right away until their resurgence in 2019.Usually backing Hawks in Tasmania is just another formality, however the last two times Brisbane have played against the Hawks in Tasmania they have won. Lions to continue their 2019 form into 2020 and I’ll pick the slight underdogs to win here. Bet: Lions @ $1.95
West Coast Eagles $1.22 vs Melbourne Demons $4.35 @ Optus Stadium Line: -28.5 @ $1.90 vs +28.5 @ $1.90 West Coast had an unsuccessful 2019 campaign by their standards after winning the 2018 AFL premiership, they failed to make the top 4, and then got bundled out the finals by Geelong. They look ahead for a season that can only be considered a success if they win the flag after adding Tim Kelly to their already star studded midfield. Melbourne would hope to forget 2019 existed with only Gold Coast finishing below them. Melbourne have had success against the Eagles in Perth in the past, but we’re not sure what Demons team will turn up in the first round. Bet: Eagles -28.5 @ $1.90
For more of my AFL betting insights, with a focus on Brownlow medal betting, follow me on Twitter @brownlowLowdownand best of luck for your footy bets in 2020
