It’s been a season like no other and we’ve finally reached the pinnacle. The 2020 AFL Grand Final is set to take place this Saturday night with Richmond taking on Geelong at the Gabba – there’s a sentence you never thought you’d read.
We’ve brought you our best AFL tips for every match this season and the Grand Final will be no different. Check out our best bet for the big game below, with thanks to the guys at Before You Bet.
Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats
Saturday 7:30pm, Gabba
Last weekend we saw two fantastic preliminary finals play out, with the slight underdog saluting on both occasions. The Tigers were first to book their way through to the big dance via a six-point win over the Power, while the Cats were far too good a day later when they put the Lions to the sword in front of disappointed Gabba crowd.
Richmond found themselves in one of the greatest finals tests they’ve had during this fantastic four-year stretch when they took on Port Adelaide last weekend. It was a topsy-turvy affair but the Tigers were the better team in the fourth quarter, dominating the clearances en route to a six-point win. They’re now through to their third Grand Final in four years.
Geelong were a touch disappointing in their qualifying final against Port Adelaide, but they’ve bounced back with emphatic wins in their two finals since to reach the Grand Final for the first time since 2011, when they defeated Collinwood by 38 points. The Cats win over the Lions in the preliminary final last weekend was a huge sigh of relief for Cats fans, as their team has stumbled at that stage in the finals in four of the last seven years.
Historically, Geelong have dominated this matchup with Richmond, leading the head-to-head count 46-19 since 1980; however, Richmond have got over the hump in recent years and have beaten Geelong in five of their last six meetings. The Tigers famously came from behind to win against the Cats in their 2019 preliminary final clash, and backed it up with a 26-point win in their only meeting this season in Round 17.
Recent AFL Grand Finals have failed to live up to the hype if you’ve been a neutral supporter, at least for the most part. Since 2014, there has been only one Grand Final decided by 20 points or less, which was in 2018 when the Eagles pipped the Magpies at the death. Each of the other five Grand Finals during this six-year span have been blowouts, with the winning margin being 53.6 points.
You can go back and look at the history books all you want, but at the end of the day it’s just which team will perform the best in the big moments on Grand Final day. You know what you’re going to get from the Tigers – they’ve been sensational when they won the big dance in 2017 and 2019. The Cats are the unknown, but they have performed well during the finals this year.
All things considered, it’s nearly impossible to back against the Tigers in the pressure-cooker that is the AFL Grand Final. Their game style is suited perfectly for these big matches and we expect them to come out on top once again in a tough battle.
Prediction: Tigers Win @$1.81