Published by Jarred Magnabosco @MagnaDataTips
WARRNAMBOOL RACE 7 – THURSDAY 6TH MAY, 2021 (DAY 3)
What an edition we have in store for the 2021 Grand Annual from day 3 at “The Bool”, please find below our Runner-By-Runner preview:
#1 ZED EM $3.90 PlayUp
10YO Campaigner who is a winner of 17 career starts over his long and robust career, including prize money which now exceeds $1Million. The Patrick Payne veteran has won all the jumps majors, including this very race back in 2019 when he turned the tables on Gold Medals from the year prior. He’s never missed the placings from 3 attempts in this race and although he is getting on in age, he is still a tough galloper and you can’t ride off a champion.
Prediction – 2nd-4th
#2 BIT OF A LAD $3.90 PlayUp
The Ciaron Maher veteran has thrown himself right in the mix after a gallant 2nd on Day 1 in the Brierly Steeplechase behind Flying Agent. In the master trainers own words ‘You need a bit of luck to win a Grand Annual” and he’s going to need just that and more to beat a star studded field.
The best he has finished in this race is 4th but I feel like he is reaching the top of his game now, so I think he has the opportunity to better that, but it’s going to be a tough ask after such a gruelling performance on the Heavy9 on Tuesday.
Prediction – 2nd-4th
#3 GOLD MEDALS $7.50 PlayUp
The oldest horse in the race by a month on birth, is the 11YO campaigner for Symon Wilde in GOLD MEDALS.
He’s a winner of this race on much younger legs back in 2018 and it would go down as one of the all time great performances if he can defy history and become just the 2nd horse ever to win the race at 11.
Form isn’t good enough and although I’ve seen stranger results, he’s just too short in betting for mine.
Prediction – 3rd-6th
#4 SPYING ON YOU $11 PlayUp
The other 11YO runner in the race is the South Australian SPYING ON YOU for Grant Young having his 110th career start, what a serious journeyman who is as tough as nails to be in-form coming into a race of this quality.
What’s incredible is, this guy just keeps getting closer and closer and closer in this race with each year which goes by and after missing most of last year through injury, he’s back and boasts 2 wins from his past 3 races leading into this, including a 3.5L win over ZED EM.
History says no and he probably needs it firmer, having never won on a Heavy from 16 attempts.
Prediction – 3rd to 6th
#5 YENSIR $3.70 PlayUp
Lightly raced 8YO Ex-European galloper, for the red hot Ciaron Maher stable looks to be the horse to beat for mine for many reasons.
– He boasted form back when he was running on the flat around horse like LIQUID GOLD who subsequently had form around star G1 WFA performer KINGS WILL DREAM.
– He had 5 races over the jumps in the UK for 4 wins in a row after running 3rd on his jumps debut
– He’s at the right age and is very lightly raced so should have a powerful turn of foot if required
– He’s going to stay all day and get’s in extremely well at the weights
– Stable flying and this guy has been set for this from a long way out.
He’s been very well supported and all things going well, he’s the one I want to be with.
The early market support suggests punters have him on top as well.
Prediction – WINNER
#6 NAPOLEAN $11 PlayUp
Ex NZ trained gelding who was a last start winner when 3rd-up in his first Australian campaign in much easier company.
Need to respect his recent good form, but this race is a different kettle of fish and I’d be lying if I said a win won’t shock.
Prediction 5th-9th
#8 GEORGETHEFIFTH $21 PlayUp
21.2L off on Tuesday in the Brierly but can’t underestimate Symon Wilde and his ability to turn the form around on GF day.
Another ex NZ galloper who actually debuted on the flat in a listed race and boasts form behind the likes of VOLPE VOLOCE and ICHIBAN albeit beaten a long way back.
He’s probably just a tad off this grade and for that reason, I can’t get excited about his chances.
Prediction 7th-10th
#10 HEISTHEONE $34 PlayUp
10YO ex NZ galloper who has just 4 wins to his name from 53 career starts, while winning just 1 of 7 over the jumps and 0/18 on HEAVY rain affected ground.
He’s finished either last or not finished at all at every single run in Australia so I can’t see how he can make the significant improvement needed to even remotely get close. Not sure how he is $34-1, Mr Odd’s must have seen something he likes, because he probably should be a triple figures.
Prediction 9th-10th
#11 MY KING’S COUNSEL $21 PlayUp
Young lightly raced gelding boasts ok form leading into this but in much weaker company.
He’s yet to win at the bool or on the rain affected and faces many other variables which look to be a concern.
Will look ok throughout, but I think he’ll be found out in the trying stages against the most seasoned veterans.
Prediction 8th-10th
#12 PENTELLIGENTSIA $51 PlayUp
Grant Young is game bringing this 7YO gelding here for the biggest race of his life, boasting just 1 win from 23 career starts but I’ve seen worst horses run around in this race and he’s probably not the worst chance here.
A winner at Oakbank this prep and a gallant 3rd last start when almost coming down in a race which was run in record time.
I don’t think he’s a top 4 chance, but he could run a lot better than people will give him credit for.
Prediction 5th-9th
Conclusion
I’m going with YENSIR on top. He’s the most progressive horse here on young legs and looks to have plenty up his sleeve.
The only way he doesn’t win in my opinion is experience. He’s up against some seasoned veterans who have been here 3-4 times before. They are tough proven jumpers who won’t lie down, so if he has a fight on his hands, then it may be game on.
The main contender for mine is the toppy ZED EM.
He’s just a serious serious jumper who is bred tough and will fight till the death.
Gives my ontopper weight but he lifts for the Grand Annual!!
My Numbers 5-1-2-4
