NFL Preview: Week 5

IT’S another busy Sunday in the NFL and there are plenty of intriguing matchups for punters to get involved in.

We take a look at every game on the board to point out where the market edges exist.

New York Jets v Atlanta Falcons (@ Tottenham Stadium)

The Jets offence found something last week and it’s fair to say Zach Wilson will take confidence from his first career win in the NFL.

This number seems fair, but the game script should lend itself to plenty of point scoring opportunities.

The Falcons lack of pass rush defence is going to give Wilson the time he needs to find his receivers down field, while Atlanta’s offence has notable advantages in key positions when matching up with the Jets defence.

If both teams can convert red zone trips in TD’s and aren’t forced to settle for FG’s this will look like a short number by full-time.

Your best bet: Over 45.0 points

Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s not surprising to see money come in on the Dolphins here, even with Jacoby Brissett at QB.

The Buccaneers aren’t the team we know they will be by the time the schedule ticks over to the second half of the season and their defensive injuries in this one in their secondary are concerning.

Miami’s defence will force Tampa Bay into plenty of 3rd & long scenarios and if they can play mistake-free football on offence they’ll give themselves a shot to potentially steal this one.

The pre-season lookahead line for this game was 7.5  and the overadjustment on this number given all the relevant information makes it a simple Miami or pass play on the line.

Your best bet: Miami Dolphins +10

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

The Eagles get a chance to get back on track against a Panthers offence that ranks significantly lower than the Dallas & Tampa Bay teams they’ve faced in back-to-back weeks.

The Panthers defence is still really good even with injuries, but they do need to be downgraded until they’re back to full health.

This game could follow a number of different game script and that makes it difficult to identify an angle given the market prices seem very fair across the board here. Some sharp money grabbed the Eagles at 4.0 but I don’t see it going back to that number here.

Your best bet: Pass

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team

The Saints are the play here, but I don’t feel comfortable about having to be on them based on what I’ve seen so far this season.

New Orleans seem to lack identity right now but their offensive line is above average and they should be able to give Jameis Winston the time to take advantage of a very poor secondary.

The Saints defence is also an above average unit and they’ll be able to limit Taylor Heinickie’s ability to move the chains.

This is a cheap price for the Saints despite their level of play at the moment.

Your best bet: New Orleans Saints -2.0

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars locker room is a mess right now and it’s very safe to say that Urban Meyer has lost this locker room.

This number opened as low as 3.5 and will very likely close above 5.0 in my opinion. The Titans WR injuries are being overstated here and it seems they might get at least AJ Brown back in this one.

Derrick Henry is going to feast here and the Jags may very well give up in this one. I have my concerns trusting this Titans defence on the road, but that’s negated by everything happening in Jacksonville at the moment.

Your best bet: Tennessee Titans -4.0

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

The Lions are beat up and despite the good flashes they’ve shown behind Jared Goff you really can’t be trusting this team right now.

The problem here is that if you want to play the Vikings you’re paying a premium with the line steamed up to 9.0 points.

This is an easy pass here; if you like the Lions you’d want to wait to try and catch a +10 at a minimum here and if you like the Viking you’ve missed the best of the number and are better placed to pass on the game.

Your best bet: Pass

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This one is all about the QB play on both sides.

Ben Roethlisberger has looked horrible this season, but he still might be the better of the two on the field with Teddy Bridgewater out and Drew Lock set to start for the Broncos.

That said, Big Ben might also be out so who in the hell knows what to expect if that’s the case. The market looks fair if it’s Big Ben v Lock, and trying to guess any other lineup seems a pure gamble.

This is the ugliest game on the board making it an easy pass.

Your best bet: Pass

Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The only real concern for the Bengals on a week-to-week is whether their offensive line can hold up to allow Joe Burrow to get to work.

The loss of Jaire Alexander for the Packers cannot be understated and the impact it has on the markets probably isn’t being fairly valued in my opinion.

The Bengals offence is above league average and the game script here should have them throwing for big yardage plays down the stretch to chase the game. On the flip side, there’s no way the Bengals defence keeps Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offence in check so the market total is a great spot in this one.

Your best bet: Over 50.0 points

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

The Patriots will win, but will they cover? It’s a hard pass from a betting perspective.

New England’s injury report isn’t great and their offensive line issues could be a concern. It won’t be enough to stop them leaving with the W but it makes the line an uncomfortable proposition on the road.

Bill Bellichick feasts on the rookie QB’s and the total is low for good reason. There’s better games on the board this week.

Your best bet: Pass

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Bears win in Week 4 was very misleading, but at least they have done the right thing by finally handing the keys to Justin Fields.

The Raiders looked really flat against the Chargers but they get a really nice get right spot at home to a first-time road starter at centre for the Bears.

This line has taken early money on the Raiders – understandably – but it’s now at a point where it’s tough to see value on either side of the line or total.

Your best bet: Pass

Cleveland Browns @ LA Chargers

This is the best match up of the week and there is fair arguments to be had for either side in this one. Health is the biggest question mark on Cleveland here, but the injury reports are promising for the most part.

Money on the Browns during the week isn’t surprising and fair price is probably even money given I don’t value LA’s home field to be of any value to the point spread.

These are two of the best coaches in the league right now and it’s going to make for terrific viewing for neutrals. The value is clearly with the Browns at anything above $2.05 here assuming they have their key pieces available.

Your best bet: Cleveland Browns win

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

The Giants got a big OT win in Week 4 against the Saints, but this figures to be a completely different task altogether.

Containing the Cowboys offence is going to be problematic for most teams and the Giants having some defensive injury issues makes this a near impossible task for them to go on the road and get a division win.

The line is high, but understandably so. Dallas will likely play from in front and there’s no way the Giants are able to keep up from a scoring standpoint. The only concern is if Dallas sits on the ball down the stretch and they leave the backdoor open for New York to score late and get inside that key number.

I’m happy laying the points though for Dallas right now who are looking really good on both sides of the football – even with Mike McCarthy and Jason Garrett involved!

Your best bet: Dallas Cowboys -7.0

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

It would take a brave man to stand in front of the Cardinals right now, but you’re certainly paying a premium if you want them in this spot.

The 49ers are slightly valuable here, but I’d want to wait and see if we can get a 6.0 before getting involved with them at this point.

It’s a nice divisional bounce back spot for San Francisco here and you can see a flat spot for Arizona after that big win against the Rams. Right now, it’s a pass. If the money keeps coming for Arizona I’d certainly take the value on San Fran at 6.0 or better.

Your best bet: Pass

Check back on Monday for a full game preview on Buffalo at Kansas City.

Note: All lines available at Play Up at time of writing.


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