Tbetta Sunday Preview
DFS • Fantasy

Draftstars AFL 23 Sunday Round 6 Tips

Apr 22, 2023
10 Min Read

Sunday on Draftstars brings a 3-game slate that actually brings some “what ifs” to the table.

With North Melbourne/Gold Coast the last game of the day and some questionable team selections, you need to have your “Witts” about you today… Draftstars Vet ‘Tbetta’ is back with another edition of Stargazing for your Draftstars lineups.

Before we look at Sunday, check out our educational piece – How to Win on Draftstars with limited entries. Keep this in mind when building your Draftstars lineups!

How to win with Limited Entries

 MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 Main ($15 entry, 125 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)

SATELLITE:

HAW vs ADE – UTAS Stadium: Fine.

CAR vs STK – Marvel Stadium: Roof.

GCS vs NTH – Heritage Bank Stadium: Showers. Take care with mark-heavy players.

INNER CORE:

FWD
Seamus Mitchell ($6,510 FWD) absolutely looked the part as a creative defender for the Hawks, so a repeat of last week’s 64 would be very handy. The fast deck of UTAS Stadium should help him, as it has for many Hawthorn defenders over the years. Depending on what the Roos do with a sore Harry Sheezel, Darcy Tucker ($6,910 DEF/FWD) could sneak some wing time and has upside at that price.

Midfield time is king for a lot of these forward options, and Cam Mackenzie ($8,410 MID/FWD) can probably expect some extra reps after a week managed as the sub and the absences of Will Day and Josh Ward. North is in a similar position following the loss of Jy Simpkin, which makes the prices of Tom Powell ($8,900 MID/FWD), Will Phillips ($9,910 MID/FWD) and Ben Cunnington ($9,870 MID/FWD) very tempting with extra midfield minutes signed, sealed and delivered.

There’s enough forward line value here that you’re probably not overreaching for the top-priced guys, but the hybrid role of Josh Rachele (12,540 MID/FWD) is juicy enough when viewed through the lens of a soft Hawthorn match-up.

MID
Ned Long ($6,860 MID) didn’t get as many CBA’s (just 12%) as I’d hoped, but he flashed his scoring ability by creeping to 63 after a slow start. He’ll be better for the run. Daniel Howe ($9,210 MID) was one of the best-value picks on last week’s Saturday slate with an 88 and barely cops a price rise here – I loved his role out on the wing and I can easily see a repeat performance coming.

Brayden Fiorini ($9,350 MID) probably surprised me with how many CBA’s he received (50%), and I’ll back those crucial KPI’s in versus his modest 60-point score against the Dockers any day of the week. It’s a packed price bracket with Chayce Jones’s ($9,960 MID) shiny new wing role paying dividends of 85 and 108 in the past fortnight and Conor Nash ($9,900 MID) taking full advantage of the bonus midfield time with a season-high 104.

Jai Newcombe and James Worpel are attractive options in the awkward $13k range with the same midfield void to fill, but with so many value options available on this slate, you can probably have your pick of the litter with the elite crop. Touk Miller ($16,070 MID) hasn’t been as consistent as his reputation over the past couple of seasons, but his ceiling is worth chasing with recent scores of 130, 112, 135 & 102 against North.

DEF
Debutants are hit-and-miss by nature, but the defender Alex Cincotta ($6,000 MID/DEF) could not exhibit any more positive indicators for a big maiden score. He’s a mature-ager (tick), comes up against some soft St Kilda DvP (tick), is coming off massive scores of 112 and 136 in the VFL (tick) and walks into a line-up with regular distributors in Sam Docherty, Adam Saad and Zac Williams missing (big tick).

Going up a couple of tax brackets, I really like Brodie Smith ($11,660 DEF) following Jordan Dawson’s move into the midfield. He shot to the top of the kick-ins hierarchy last week and has posted scores of 85 and 87 in the past fortnight. Speaking of kick-ins, Blake Hardwick’s ($12,290 DEF) 11 freebies last week could pay off handsomely at UTAS Stadium, while Nic Newman ($12,890 DEF) could Steven Bradbury his way into the kick-in role and some extra fantasy potency.

RUC
Solo rucks are what we chase every week, so Marc Pittonet’s ($7,940 RUC) first outing for 2023 without De Koning is very promising. I prefer him strongly to Max Lynch ($8,210 RUC) at roughly the same price tag for example, because while Max’s VFL form has been exquisite with 118 and 115 back-to-back, he has to share ruck duties with the incumbent Ned Reeves.

Despite being named, I have doubts as to Jarrod Witts’ availability and therefore am keeping an eye out on socials in regard to the Suns, because Todd Goldstein ($11,490 RUC) will have a much easier time reaching value against the younger Ned Moyle or a Mabior Chol/Levi Casboult combo.

BLACK HOLES:

Carlton Midfield Squeeze

Round 5 was the first time everyone with on ball experience has been fit for the Blues, which put some real strain on the midfield rotations. Cerra (-21% CBA share) and Kennedy (-39%) were the worst hit with stints across half-back, and Ed Curnow’s move into the midfield to tag a rampant Rory Laird limited Walsh and Hewett to well below their 2022 averages.

Carlton’s midfield has been fool’s gold all year though, to be honest. They’ve dropped from the 2nd-highest fantasy scoring club to the 12th early on in 2023, and haven’t had a single midfielder score over 111 so far. They had 9 such scores at the same point last season.

Callum Wilkie ($13,300 DEF)

There’s no doubt that 2023 has been a break-out year for Wilkie, cranking up his fantasy output to 94 points per game – way up from his previous career-best fantasy average of 68. He’s done this mainly through a sharp increase in marking rate, going at a massive 12 per outing over the past few weeks. That should be the first red flag; those numbers are not sustainable.

The second red flag for me this week is his league-leading 4.4 intercept marks a game. Carlton boasts the two reigning Coleman Medallists in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, so I daresay Wilkie will have his hands full actually defending more than he has over the past month.

Seb Ross ($14,090 MID)

Ross’s resurgence over the past month has been fruitful for savvy DFS punters, but that 94-point velocity could be in for some serious deceleration. The return of skipper Jack Steele is expected to put the brakes on his CBA-heavy role, given that Ross averaged 23% with his skipper compared to a massive 81% since he went down with a collarbone injury.

When the price is up but the KPI’s go back down, that’s when you disembark.

STAR SIGNS:

Nightfall

The importance of midfield time was never so clear as it was for Hawthorn last week, with Day’s suspension paving the way for Newcombe (119) and Worpel (114) to post season-high totals. It’s no coincidence that these scores coincided with CBA bumps of 27% and 7% respectively, and with Josh Ward managed, the KPI’s should be very healthy again in Round 6.

Blue Steele

Conventional wisdom suggests that you should be restrained in picking a guy who is coming back from a medium-term injury. Jack Steele seems to defy that logic, posting stupid totals of 124, 114, 121, 117 and 154 in the five weeks after returning from a shoulder injury last season. Still, can you seriously consider him at a slate-topping $17,280?

This answer is yes. Yes, you can. Steele’s record against the Blues is incredible with 126, 119, 108, 138, 162 and 114 in his last six efforts against his Marvel co-tenants – the same Carlton that just allowed Laird (118) and Dawson (133) to absolutely dismantle them in the guts.

James Sicily ($14,820 DEF)

The general appetite for Sicily is lacking in fantasy circles currently. Hardwick is stealing his kick-ins (they had a very lopsided 11 to 1 last week) and his scoring has suffered with just 49 and 78 in the past fortnight… But scoring at Pig Park is massive for DEFs, and I’m looking at going against the tide here. Sicily has churned out scores of 151 (17 marks) and 132 (18 marks) in his last two appointments at UTAS Stadium, so consider my interest officially piqued.

GALAXY CLUSTER:

Carlton – DEF Stack

St Kilda were on the cusp of receiving some key forward relief with Tim Membrey’s return, but Caminiti’s flaring temper took care of that. That leaves the Saints undersized once again, so I’m happily going back to the well on opposing general defenders. We’re in a unique position this week where the DvP matches up with some potential injury boosts as Docherty, Saad and Williams won’t be there to capitalise.

Nic Newman ($12,890 DEF) and Mitch McGovern ($10,760 DEF) will fight it out over the kick-ins, but I love the idea of targeting the cheaper Jacob Weitering & Lewis Young as interceptors given they don’t exactly have anyone worth guarding. Of course, Alex Cincotta ($6,000 MID/DEF) should cash in on the defender boost, and his DPP allows you the flexibility to stack three Carlton backmen if you so desire.

North – DEF Stack

It didn’t come to fruition with Fremantle last week, but the numbers over a longer stretch support the backmen vs Suns trend. North have thrown a spanner in the works with their backline balance however, with Aaron Hall ($14,220 DEF) joining the fray and muddying the roles (and fantasy value) of Jack Ziebell ($12,740) and Harry Sheezel ($15,800 DEF). It doesn’t help that Sheezel is under multiple injury clouds with a corkie and a thumb issue to work through, so maybe this is an opportunity to “party like it’s 2021” and pair up the veterans in defence?

Gold Coast – Key FWD Targets

The Roos are getting absolutely smashed by the big forwards lately, conceding big numbers to Harry McKay (119 fantasy points from 4 goals), Charlie Curnow (114 & 6), Joe Daniher (120 & 5) and Eric Hipwood (98 & 4) in just the past fortnight alone. Ben King ($6,000 FWD) is basement-priced and could really use the extra confidence, while Levi Casboult ($6,050 FWD/RK) and even Jack Lukosius ($11,570 FWD/DEF) are worth targeting as value picks that could cash in on North’s diabolical defence.

 

MULTIVERSE THEORY:

In a parallel universe:

  • Despite the blistering form of Jordan Dawson, the Hawks choose to send Nash to Rory Laird instead with the memories of his last two scores of 132 and 142 against them fresh in the coaching staff’s minds…
  • The re-emergence of Aaron Hall is a bad omen for Sheezel. Can we expect him to be a late out on the last game of the slate? Or will they protect him with a much less potent forward role for a week or two…?

Tbetta.

Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.10pm AEST. ENTER NOW!

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CHANCES ARE YOU'RE ABOUT TO LOSE.

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.