Draftstars veteran ‘Tbetta’ is back on Sunday with his 3-game Draftstars preview. Read on to see who to target and who to avoid in today’s edition of ‘Stargazing’.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 Main ($15 entry, 100 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
GEEL vs NTH – GMHBA Stadium: Showers.
ESS vs ADE – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
FREM vs CAR – Optus Stadium: Showers.
INNER CORE:
FWD
Nothing beats seeing the son of an AFL legend named to make their debut, so there’s been plenty of Cooper Harvey ($6,000 FWD) hype this week. And why wouldn’t there be – his father Brent Harvey owns the AFL total games record, while he just came off a humongous 5 majors and 128 fantasy points in the VFL himself. Taking all the emotion out of it however, Harvey might not be the DFS slate-breaker of our dreams. He was averaging just 60 prior to that outbreak, and will have to play forward against the Cats at the fearsome GMHBA Stadium.
I liked David Cuningham ($8,780 FWD/MID) last week despite the lukewarm season-debut, and a big part of that is because of how Carlton loves him – they even gave him CBA cameos for his 74 last week. There’s still room for growth if Cuningham can eventually run out a full game, registering just 13 points in the second half after a scoreless final term the week prior.
The North match-up ensures that Tom Hawkins ($10,230 FWD) will be very popular this week – more on him below. His opponent Tarryn Thomas ($10,940 FWD/MID) is a riskier alternative in the same price-range, depending on how his role balances out with the tough match-up. North has just dropped three defensive options in Jack Ziebell, Liam Shiels and Miller Bergman, which could mean a switch to half-back for Taz.
MID
We don’t have the usual dirt-cheap MID options on this slate, but we do have a very intriguing mid-range.
With the Dockers losing Nat Fyfe for the foreseeable future, there’s more midfield clock to go around. His direct replacement in Neil Erasmus ($8,700 MID) has been a very reliable scorer when given the go-ahead, averaging 69 from games where he wasn’t the starting sub this year.
Of course, the incumbent Matthew Johnson ($10,430 MID) can expect a midfield boost – if not through raw CBAs, then definitely through a jump up in the pecking order.
Even Liam Henry ($10,810 MID) remains an option. I initially wanted to suggest fading him due to uncharacteristically high recent scores of 118 and 116, but Carlton are the best match-up for wingmen in the league. While I probably won’t have him in my “core”, I’ll definitely look for him in Docker stacks – more on that below.
Journeyman Hugh Greenwood ($9,490 MID) is Bali-cheap due to sub-affected scores of 31, 48, 25 and 27 this year and has to be considered. Ultimately, his value depends on his exact role and how heavily they use him at centre bounces, which is somewhat helped by the axing of other fringe options in Shiels and Phillips. Greenwood averages 92 from his three games with 55%+ CBA share this year, and for what it’s worth, I have him in North’s midfield core just behind Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin and George Wardlaw.
It’s a similar tale for Blue bull Matthew Kennedy ($10,510 MID), who’s starting to get too cheap to the point where he’s all upside here. He’s now one of the top options in DFSAustralia’s awesome “Boom or Bust” tool for this Sunday slate.
DEF
I don’t usually love Geelong in DFS, but they’re offering up a few good options in defence this week. Oisin Mullin ($7,080 DEF) projects out excellently in a points-per-dollar sense here, adding some scoring confidence with 70 & 75 in the VFL since returning from a groin issue. Then there’s the versatile Jack Bowes ($8,520 DEF), who’s in for his first full game since Round 6. He’s averaged 74 when not substituted this year.
Zach Tuohy ($10,510 DEF/MID) is the other one I’m tracking, mainly due to it being another milestone game as he breaks Jim Stynes’s record outright – it’s not lost on me that Geelong have brought in two fellow Irishmen to share in the occasion. He posted a season-high 97 last week with more of a half-back role as Mitch Duncan graciously crept up to his regular high half-forward position – I’d expect to see another role boost for Tuohy with Isaac Smith rested.
I like him through the scope of a trend below, but Mitchell Hinge ($11,060 DEF) is still cheap enough to consider in your core. He’s produced scores of 83 and 119 in the past fortnight, showing he can do it in multiple modes – both as the designated kicker and as an interceptor (he had a round-high 7 last week). Essendon concedes plenty to both.
RUC
It’s a packed ruck slate this Sunday, with Andrew Phillips ($10,050 RUC) demanding consideration following his 97 points as the solo man last week. While he’s been named to take the reins himself against the Crows, can we really trust that Brad Scott will keep it in his pants with the last-minute ruck swap again?
Of course, Sean Darcy ($14,780 RUC) deserves similar attention given that the Blues haven’t been able to regain either Tom De Koning nor Marc Pittonet from the injury tent this weekend. This could be an absolute bloodbath in the ruck, as we’ve consistently seen Darcy’s ceiling against these weaker types with 5 scores over 110 already this year.
BLACK HOLES:
Ben Keays ($14,240 MID)
This feels weird to say after Keays pumped out a season-high 132, but the -75% reduction in CBA share is a huge concern – and the Crows obviously don’t get to play North every week. So, after a month where he averaged 70% centre bounce presence, we’re back to some serious role uncertainty with Keays.
Caleb Serong ($16,200 MID)
This is more of a flag because I feel like Serong has taken his game to another level this year, but it would be remiss of me to overlook his rough record against the Blues. In fact, Carlton is easily the worst match-up for Serong over his career, with scores of just 64, 65, 66 and 60 against them over the past two seasons alone. No tags, no injuries either. Brutal.
He’s been sensational in 2023, but this is still one to keep in mind given that Carlton also ranks the hardest match-up for inside MIDs over the past 10 rounds.
Jack Silvagni ($10,130 FWD/RUC)
Silvagni was impressive against the Blues last week, fighting way out of his weight division to rack up 87 at a modest price-tag. However, the Sean Darcy/Luke Jackson ruck combination is a whole different kettle of fish to the Reeves/Meek pairing, who amazingly allowed SOSOS to rack up a career-high 12 hitouts last week.
I’ll go watch a West Coast game live if Silvagni is able to repeat that against the Dockers this week who – when you remove the block of games where Sean Darcy was injured – have been the hardest team to score ruck points against this season.
STAR SIGNS:
Tom & Jeremy
Geelong’s Twin Towers smoked the Roos last year, kicking a combined 21 goals against them from their two meetings:
Tom Hawkins ($10,230 FWD) – 92 (4 goals) and 117 (6 goals)
Jeremy Cameron ($13,210 FWD) – 118 (7 goals) and 146 (4 goals)
And yes, North is still one of the easiest teams for Key FWDs to score against in 2023.
Now, I wrote this section before Jezza was ruled out through concussion, but the numbers still very much apply to Tomahawk on his own. In fact, it might even be a good thing for us in DFS, because now we know exactly who to target, rather than sharing it between the two spearheads.
Xerri Bomb
Displacing veteran Todd Goldstein is Tristan Xerri ($9,190 RUC), who earns his spot after 29 touches, 31 hitouts and 149 fantasy points at VFL level in just his second game back post-injury. He was going at World Record pace in Round 1 before getting busting his ankle, scoring 26 points at 1.36PPM (and I guess, technically, he’s still the season-leader in that stat).
At this bargain salary, I’m very interested in what the X-Man can do against a Geelong side that doesn’t seem to prioritise the ruck artform as much as other clubs.
Captain Marvel
Sick of picking Rory Laird ($16,270 MID) at a high salary and watching him stagnate? Just wait for him to play at Marvel Stadium instead! Laird’s last 4 scores under the Dome reads 123, 129, 132 and 138, with all of those falling within the top pair of scorers for the Crows.
The first of those hefty totals was against this week’s opponents in the Bombers, where he racked up 38 touches and 8 marks in a narrow loss.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Geelong – Full Stack
They were plucky to start the year, but the maturity of North’s list is on full display as we approach the final third of the season. They’ve now lost the fantasy ledger by a huge 221 points on average over their past 5 games, and never by less than 114.
Now, the Cats haven’t been accumulating anywhere near what we’re used to of late – but when you get the Roos at your hallowed home deck, form means little. As per usual, FWDs and MIDS are the happiest hunting grounds against North, so stack away.
Adelaide – DEF Stack
The Bombers are the second-best match-up for DEFs this year; particularly at Marvel, as they give up some of the highest uncontested numbers in the league. As a result, I like the idea of linking up the players in Draftstars that are most likely to link up in real life.
Mitchell Hinge ($11,060 DEF) and Brodie Smith ($12,110 DEF) are the obvious anchors as designated kickers for the Crows, with Wayne Milera ($10,380 DEF), Chayce Jones ($10,890 MID/DEF) and Lachie Sholl ($10,160 MID) the players who best scale on marks and could get involved in the +6 game this Sunday.
Fremantle – Outside Stack
Carlton concedes the most points to Wings/Attacking Defenders over the last few months, so could players like Liam Henry ($10,810 MID) and Matthew Johnson ($10,430 MID) continue their recent hot streaks? What about Andrew Brayshaw ($16,470 MID), who averages 126 with 5+ marks this year?
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Sunday slate will close at 1.10pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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