Four very interesting games for Saturday’s Round 3 Draftstars slate. An undefeated Kangaroos and Saints side and a Showdown at night will make great TV and even better Draftstars action. Daily Fantasy AFL Draftstars Veteran ‘Tbetta’ is back to dissect who to look out for and who to avoid in his next edition of ‘Stargazing’.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$90,000 Main ($15 entry, 150 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
HAW vs NTH – fine.
GWS vs CARL – Showers. Avoid players who scale with marks.
STK vs ESS – Chance of showers.
PORT vs ADEL – fine.
INNER CORE:
FWD
The cupboard is bare for cheap forwards, so maybe you can roll the dice on sometimes-tagger Marcus Windhager ($7,680 MID/FWD) with some midfield time opening up at St Kilda? He had mixed results offensively when tagging late last year, scoring thrice around the 80’s but slipping in scores of 33 and 41 into that block.
There’s a similar midfield void at North with Jy Simpkin suspended for a week, so there’s opportunity for scoring boosts to fringe MIDs like Tom Powell ($8,770 MID/FWD), Liam Shiels ($9,560 MID/FWD) and Ben Cunnington ($11,960 MID/FWD). While you’re looking over the Roos, I’d hover over Nick Larkey’s name with the Hawks power-tanking early. In saying that, his ceiling has been a concern so far this year, kicking 10 goals but producing fantasy nuggets of just 61 & 76.
MID
Will Phillips ($6,270 MID) looms as the primary beneficiary of Jy Simpkin’s bad behaviour, filling an inside midfield role during the pre-season and showing promise in those minutes. 17 touches in half a game as the starting sub in Round 1 only fuels that optimism. If you’re looking for your risk/reward types that can win you a slate, the midfield is littered with them in the $8-$11k bracket, so good luck avoiding the raisin cookies mixed in with the chocolate chips.
The South Australian sides always put their best feet forward in The Showdown, which piques my interest in the potential value in veterans like Rory Sloane ($11,450 MID) – who should see a midfield boost with Harry Schoenberg omitted – and maybe even Travis Boak ($12,960 MID) after starting as the sub against the Pies. Jack Steele is a huge loss for St Kilda so expect to see Hunter Clark, Seb Ross and Brad Crouch smashed with centre bounce action to replace his huge 86% involvement. I foresee the sharks once again targeting the $13k-$15k range for midfielders with some under-priced options in Lachie Whitfield, Will Setterfield, Tom Green and Josh Kelly available – especially with the top 3 most expensive players on this slate looking at potential tags.
DEF
Last week’s 65 would be a welcome total from Massimo D’Ambrosio ($7,270 DEF), but I suspect he could exceed that with the soft St Kilda match-up – as he did in the pre-season with a 79 at 0.84PPM. Apart from nibbles at potential upswings from Wayne Milera ($7,800 DEF) and Liam Stocker ($8,830 DEF), I’ll be focusing on stacking defenders with some potent DvP trends ripe for the reaping. Hawthorn haven’t selected a single key forward, so expect the Roos to have the football on a string in defence. Harry Sheezel ($13,260 DEF) and Jack Ziebell ($12,180 DEF) haven’t let down their shareholders so far this season, while Aidan Corr ($10,770 DEF) and Griffin Logue ($7,930 DEF) will have more opportunities than usual to intercept mark rather than spoil. The same script has been written for distributors like Jordan Ridley, Andrew McGrath and Mason Redman for the Bombers.
Most VFL / AFL 30+ disposal games
126 – Gary Ablett Jnr
VFL / AFL games to have 30+ disposals twice
106 – Gary Ablett Jnr
2 – Harry Sheezel— Joshua Kay (@js_kay) March 25, 2023
RUC
I was way over the field on Todd Goldstein ($11,310 RUC) last week and learnt a harsh financial lesson, but I still think he has some gas left in the tank – the Lloyd Meek/Ned Reeves match-up has to be better than the Sean Darcy/Jackson duo that strangulated him last week. Reilly O’Brien ($14,450 RUC) has been right on his career pace with scores of 91 & 98 so far this year but could be in store for an uptick against his bunny side – the technologically-impaired ruckman pumped out totals of 115 and 128 against the Power last season. Meanwhile, Sam Draper ($9,470 RUC) has shaken his Andrew Phillips-shaped shadow and could be worth a look against a non-dominant hitout ruckman on Saturday night.
BLACK HOLES:
Dylan Moore ($14,870 FWD)
He’s been far from disgraced in his first two games with 86 and 109, but I find it hard to pay a midfielder’s price-tag for a bloke that is yet to attend a single centre bounce this season. Much of the off-season hype was centred around Dylan Moore stepping into the midfield void created by the Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara offloads, but so far Sam Mitchell is yet to yield. With the Hawks looking hot favourites for the spoon, I’m not paying almost $15k for their small forwards.
Zach Merrett ($16,680 MID)
This is as simple as it gets. If you don’t hit 130+ with this price-tag on a multi-game slate, it’s a failed pick – and I have severe doubts as to whether St Kilda’s Marcus Windhager will allow Merrett to get anywhere near this figure. Essendon’s new skipper has produced scores of just 55 (Harry Perryman) and 86 (Will Drew) in his last two tagged games to end last season, plus just the 29 in the first half with a Finn Maginess stalker in Round 1 before it was released. Pass.
The Maginness Match-Up
Speaking of Maginness – where does Sam Mitchell see him playing in Round 3? So far, he’s tagged Merrett (as mentioned above), sat across half forward, played a lockdown forward role on Jake Lloyd for a half and most recently before being sent to defence. Make sure you’re fully across the potential roles of Finn before locking in the red-hot LDU, or even going all-in on the extra supply for Ziebell/Sheezel in defence.
STAR SIGNS:
Gresham’s Gain
When Jack Steele missed a month of footy midyear last season, it was Jade Gresham who received the biggest boost by increasing his average from 79 to 99 without his skipper. He’s already in the CBA rotation with 64% exposure against the Bulldogs, and that number should only increase with Steele’s 82% having to go somewhere. The sealer? Jake Gresham pumped out a team-high 116 against the Bombers last year – which was not-so-coincidentally one of the weeks Steele didn’t play.
What on earth is going on with Jade Gresham’s eyebrows?
— Darren Hodge (@CaptainUniverse) March 25, 2023
Setterfield Stonks
One of the most underrated skills in DFS is figuring out whether a player is simply upswinging, or they’re actually just that good. Will Setterfield’s start of 122 and 130 is more akin to his VFL numbers than anything he’s produced at AFL level for either the Blues or Giants… where he was admittedly played out of position. For that reason, I’m leaning towards this being “real” for Setterfield, giving Essendon a big body on the inside that they didn’t have before – which has resulted in him averaging most CBA’s for Bombers so far in 2023.
The Ghost Of Preuss
Matt Flynn ($10,840 RUC) has been a useful horses-for-courses ruckman over the last couple of years, pumping out big scores when coming up against weak opposition – a trend that was cemented with his 110 against a Nic Naitanui-less West Coast in Round 2. While the timing wasn’t right for him to solo against Carlton in either of their match-ups last year, I’m adopting Brayden Preuss’s scores of 108 and 105 against the Blues last year as some encouraging exposed form for Flynn ahead of Saturday’s clash.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Essendon – DEF Stack
We’ve seen it already with this match-up mirroring their pre-season clash, where 5 different defenders racked up 8+ marks each, and each of those players ranking in the top 8 scorers for Essendon. St Kilda doesn’t have anyone fit up forward that would cause the Bomber defenders a sleepless night or force them to actually defend – just ask the statisticians who were asked to track Fremantle’s backline in that record-breaking Round 1.
North Melbourne – Full Stack
Hawthorn are now on a fantasy loss streak of 8 games, so suddenly the Kangaroos look like the bullies rather than the victims they were cast as in 2021 and 2022. Hawks concede juicy numbers to opposition DEFs, so definitely pay attention to the Ziebell, Sheezel & Friends builds that I’ve been spruiking throughout this article. There could be serious gold at the end of this rainbow.
Port – Full Stack
The Power got dismantled by the disciplined Pies, but it could be a whole other story with a return to Adelaide Oval where they have outscored opponents by 283 points – that’s a whopping 13 points per player – against their last 5 opponents in SA. One of those were the Crows, where they slammed on an extra 462 fantasy points in a Showdown slaughtering. A fun stacking option to ride home in the last game of the slate.
MULTIVERSE THEORY:
In a parallel universe…
- Patrick Cripps gets tagged and continues his poor record against the GWS. But with no Harry Perryman or Matt De Boer to go with him, he monsters the Giants…
- Mason Redman was the bridesmaid in the pre-season clash, being the only defender who failed to cash in that day, and he takes it personally after scores of 104 and 103 in the real stuff so far this season…
- George Hewett’s return stifles Ed Curnow’s resurgence. An injury to Matt Kennedy might secure his midfield time for another week instead, with a tagging role looming…
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.45pm AEDT. ENTER NOW!
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