Hard to refocus after a epic Saturday night, but for those who are looking to get the bread on Draftstars. Tbetta’s Stargazing preview is the tonic on this Sunday.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 Main ($15 entry, 100 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 20 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
HAW vs WBD – UTAS Stadium: Fine.
STK vs RICH – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
PORT vs GWS – Adelaide Oval: Showers.
INNER CORE:
FWD
He proved to be an excellent selection last week with 67 points at 10.55X value, so could we go back to the well on Jacob Koschitzke ($7,480 FWD/RUC) in his new role as the back-up ruckman? Given that he only has to deal with a leaky English in the ruck and an injury-plagued backline for the Bulldogs, I can’t see why not.
I found it extremely interesting that Hunter Clark was dropped after 108 points and 50% CBA share, which is encouraging news for those banking on Mitch Owens’s ($9,710 FWD) season-high 64% CBA action to continue. The Saints have actually had the privilege of being able to pick from a stable of tall forwards lately, so it looks like Owens is now free to develop his midfield game instead.
You can’t consider him a “core” pick given the worryingly low basement, but Bailey Smith ($11,950 FWD/MID) has now made himself cheap enough that he’s almost irresistible as an upswing gamble. You’d be chasing that 114 he erupted with against the Bombers a few weeks ago, or even just the 90 points he produced against the Hawks back in Round 7 would suffice at this modest salary.
I find it hard to seriously consider Dustin Martin ($13,590 FWD/MID) in GPP’s at this exorbitant price-tag, but his elite consistency of late makes him a bona fide “cash” play. He’s produced a floor of 90 in his last 5 games and is fresh off a rest, so perhaps he can turn those persistent 90s into triple digits against the Saints?
MID
It’s weird that GWS debutant Toby McMullin ($6,000 MID) is a MID-only given he’ll be playing as a small forward (and has been doing so at VFL level all year), averaging just 55 in that unfriendly role. I’d much prefer to pivot to his Giant teammate Josh Fahey ($6,000 MID), who is likely to play on a wing and at least have access to some kind of ceiling. Fahey scored 50 in his only full game in the AFL this year, but has that fantasy pedigree with a 108-point VFL average across multiple roles in 2023.
If you’re looking for salary relief however, it might be worth paying up a little bit to get to the safety of Thomson Dow’s ($7,150 MID) inside midfield role. He’s looking at plenty of CBAs with Jacob Hopper and Trent Cotchin both out, and he’s got that strong VFL form under his wing with an 86-point average over the past month. He’s a bit pricier still, but Seb Ross’s ($9,470 MID) price is dead wrong due to that injury-affected 7-point total a month ago. The veteran is guaranteed midfield time with Hunter Clark, Zak Jones and Ryan Byrnes all out, but whether that’s clocked on a wing or on the inside is still to be determined.
Speaking of St Kilda midfielders, it’s once again hard to look past the bargain price-tag attached to Jack Steele ($14,770 MID). Field confidence must be low following that season-low 59 last week as yet another stumble in an atypically inconsistent season, but it’s important to remember that he averaged 125 over the month previously. I know which of the two I’d be basing my projections and expectations on. His namesake Jack Sinclair ($15,290 DEF/MID) could also be worth a look as it appears that he could fill a midfield role with Liam Stocker back in the starting squad, and Richmond’s midfield has plenty of holes for him to exploit.
DEF
The number of “core” DEF picks are again minimised on a St Kilda slate – see below – but there are a couple of plays I like that can be considered separate to those juicy stacks.
The first is Latham Vandermeer ($7,310 DEF), who flashed his fantasy game as a defender with 21 touches and 80 points after playing as a small forward the week prior. No Jason Johannisen helps both his role security and potency across half-back, so I’m loving this salary for his situation on Sunday.
The second is more speculative, but I like the prices of Marcus Windhager ($10,870 DEF/MID) and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ($14,070 DEF) if my hunch on Jack Sinclair’s midfield move comes to fruition. Using the same logic that has me keen on Vandermeer above, the young St Kilda pair would have a duopoly on distribution rights out of defence for the first time in weeks.
RUC
While I’m very suspicious of a late change from Port to bring in a recognised ruckman in Sam Hayes ($8,100 RUC) there’s very little we can do to take advantage in DFS given it’s the last game of the slate. Sad.
Therefore I’m looking very closely at Ned Reeves ($10,130 RUC), who gets the soft Tim English match-up a week after posting 95 as solo man. He produced a career-high 108 points against the Bulldogs earlier this season – which that was in a ruckshare with Lloyd Meek – so what can he do as the sole ruckman for the Hawks this week?
BLACK HOLES:
Marcus Bontempelli ($16,900 MID)
Grizzly true crime is all the rage on Netflix these days, so let me introduce Finn Maginness: The Brownlow Killer. I found it very interesting that the dour Hawk was able to tag Nick Daicos out of the game completely without attending a single centre bounce, which suddenly puts The Bont onto his list of potential victims.
He’s proven extremely difficult to keep down over the years, but Bontempelli has faltered a couple of times with a shadow over the course of the season. In fact, he produced his second-lowest score for the year (90) last time against the Hawks with a stoppages tag from Conor Nash, and that season-low score of 86 with a Callan Ward tag a couple of weeks ago is fresh in the mind. Buyer Beware.
GWS Gun Midfielders
I can’t decide which of Tom Green ($16,300 MID) and Josh Kelly ($14,700 MID) is most likely to be burdened with the Willem Drew tag, which made writing this section difficult. Kelly has been the democratic pick this year with most teams keen to quell his damaging footmagic, but Green is fresh off a game-high 141 points against the Swans and is the overwhelming recency bias pick.
At the end of the day, it probably doesn’t matter – you should just avoid both. Port Adelaide have been easily the roughest match-up for midfielders this year, a trend that’s primarily responsible for the Power conceding the fewest fantasy tons of any team in 2023. Throw in the Adelaide Oval element, and all signs point to looking elsewhere.
Todd Marshall ($9,780 FWD)
With no Charlie Dixon (injured) and Jeremy Finlayson (rucking) alongside him as foil, Marshall will be the big banana in Port’s forward line, which means he’s going to get peeled by a hungry Sam Taylor. The Giants have been murdering key forwards ever since his return from injury, with just 15% of opponents reaching their averages against the GWS backline over the past 10 weeks – a clear competition low.
STAR SIGNS:
James Sicily ($16,520 DEF)
The numbers are insane everywhere you look in the form guide for Sicily this week. His scores at UTAS Stadium this year are all belters with 132 (18 marks), 115 (11 marks) and 125 (11 marks), but it’s 2022 I’m most aroused by. He met the Bulldogs in Tasmania in the corresponding fixture last year and barked his head off, racking up a huge 17 marks for his 151 fantasy nuggets. Of course, he’s coming off 19 marks and 160 in a surprise win over Collingwood to add yet another slab of confidence to the foundation of his Round 22 projected output.
As has been the case with Sicily all season, it seems only a forward tag can stop him. Over to you, Luke “Magnets” Beveridge.
Kieren Briggs ($14,330 RUC)
It feels outrageous to recommend Briggs at this hefty price-tag given where his career was to start the season, but this Port Adelaide match-up is too juicy to ignore. After all, if you can make Rhys Stanley (31 hitouts, 105 AF) look good, I’m all in. But now that young ruckman Dante Visentini has withdrawn from the 22 due to injury and Port (at the time of writing) are opting to rely on Jeremy Finlayson in the ruck, this becomes an absolute no-brainer.
If Briggs can churn out scores of 130 and 114 against Tim English and Tom Hickey over the past fortnight respectively, what will be able to do when Port essentially offers up a tackle bag as his direct opponent?
Jeremy Finlayson ($10,360 FWD/RUC)
It’s weird to suggest this play given my red flag on Todd Marshall and the unbridled promotion of Kieren Briggs above, but it’s the extra time around the footy with the ruck role you’d be chasing here. Finlayson averaged an extra 15 points as a makeshift ruckman versus his forward role for Port last year – one of those games was against GWS, where he racked up 22 touches, 13 hitouts and 90 points.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Richmond – DEF Stack
St Kilda have regained a few tall forwards from the injury tent but they’re still giving up a truckload to defenders, with Nic Newman (139) and Zac Fisher (108) the latest to cash in. We’d be silly to abandon this trend after everything it has provided for us in 2023, so who can we target from the Tigers?
Not much went right for Richmond against the Bulldogs, but a newly fit Jayden Short ($14,200 DEF) and his 95 points was one of them. Daniel Rioli ($11,870 DEF) should be better than last week’s 51 points that was largely due to a first-quarter ankle roll, while Nick Vlastuin ($12,650 DEF) and Nathan Broad ($9,480 DEF) both scale aggressively with marks and demand consideration.
Hawthorn – Underdog Stack
Hawthorn’s shock win against Collingwood was the first time they’ve won the fantasy ledger in 6 weeks… which is actually something you could also say about the Bulldogs with their big win over Richmond. Weird things happen at weird grounds, so if you’re looking for a contrarian stack, this is the game to do it.
The Hawks love playing at Launceston, averaging a huge 1790 there this year, and they provided the perfect blueprint for pulling this play off last week with a hefty 12 players scoring 88 points or better against the Pies.
St Kilda – Full Stack
Marvel Stadium is always a friendly deck for fantasy footy, which instantly throws up St Kilda as a possible stacking play. They already average the most disposals of any side this year, so Richmond’s statistical leg-up – they’ve been outscored by 413 (Bulldogs) and 206 (Demons) on the fantasy scoreboard over the past fortnight – will allow the Saints to play exactly how they want to. Bag them up and hope the game pans out how the models suggest it should!
Tbetta.
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