We’ve made it to the big dance! The Pies and Lions battle it out on a warm and glorious afternoon at the G. With a MEGA $200,000 prize pool up for grabs from Draftstars along with other tournaments available, we want to bring in our Draftstars playing veteran for the last time in 2023. The Grand Final edition of ‘Stargazing’ from ‘Tbetta’ is now available!
MAIN CONTESTS:
$200,000 Main ($20 entry, 250 max)
$20,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 5 max)
$10,000 Mini ($2 entry, 50 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$5,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 250 max)
$3,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 150 max)
SATELLITE:
Brisbane vs Carlton – MCG: Perfect conditions.
STAR SIGNS:
Teamsheets
There’s been very little mystery in Brisbane’s selections all year, and that hasn’t changed for their ultimate September test. Small things like whether Josh Dunkley tracks Jordan De Goey and how they react to Craig McRae’s chess moves is about all that’s left to unfold for the Lions.
For Collingwood, we have a potentially significant structural change unfolding due to the Daniel McStay injury. If we chalk down the swap of Jack Ginnivan for Patrick Lipinski as a like-for-like in attack, that leaves Billy Frampton in for the unlucky former Lion. I can’t see the Pies playing Frampton as a ruck/forward when they already have the Cameron/Cox two-hit combo, which suggests that he’ll play as a key defender. Keep a close eye on swingman Jeremy Howe…
Repeats
No player has hit triple figures in both of Collingwood & Brisbane’s clashes this year, with only two scores over 107 overall registered in those games. If they weren’t pumping out huge scores during the home & away season, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any monsters in a Grand Final grapple. Value > ceiling on days such as this, so keep that in mind when building your plan of attack.
One trend that did endure between battles was Collingwood’s weakness for small forwards, sparking wins for the Lions in both games this year. Charlie Cameron ($9,670 FWD) crushed it in both games with bags of 6 and 4, while Cam Rayner ($9,300 FWD) chimed in as a sidekick with 4 and 2 of his own. Can they jump the final hurdle and get off the leash at the MCG though?
Retreats
Darcy Cameron ($12,430 RUC) hasn’t hit 50% CBA action since Cox forced his way back into the side four games ago, and has taken only 37% of Collingwood’s ruck contests over the past fortnight – grim numbers for any ruck. Cox is clearly the preferred centre bounce ruckman against big bustling ruck types, and Oscar McInerney ($12,790 RUC) obviously fits that mould. This is full fade territory now that Dan McStay is missing and Cameron’s forward craft will be needed more than ever.
INNER CORE:
Cheapies
Jack Ginnivan ($7,430 FWD) is heavily underpriced based solely on sub involvement throughout the course of the season, with 5 games at a clip of 22 points poisoning his average. Expect him to produce something between the 51 and 82 points he posted in his last two un-subbed outings, and that’s gold at this price-tag in a Final.
Permanent salary-reliever Deven Robertson ($7,550 MID/FWD) is the plug-and-play option for the Lions, although unfortunately you don’t get bonus points for a bangin’ rig. The young Lion racked up 61 points and thousands of Instagram followers in his shirtless outings against the Pies last time around. Jaspa Fletcher ($8,170 MID) had an off game that day, but has since produced more usable scores of 82 and 67.
He didn’t feature against the Lions in Round 23 due to injury, but I like Darcy Moore’s ($9,130 DEF) outlook if my projected Collingwood structures comes to fruition. If Frampton and Murphy are made responsible for Daniher and Hipwood respectively – and the high-flying Jeremy Howe slides forward – that allows Moore to play as an interceptor.
Of course, Darcy Cameron’s loss in the ruck is Mason Cox’s ($9,710 RUC/FWD) gain, putting him in the frame for selection as either the sole ruckman or even up forward alongside Big O in your Draftstars line-ups. The American Pie is averaging 72 fantasy points from 61% of Collingwood’s ruck contests over the past fortnight, and I love his floor if they keep using him in this fashion.
Middies
As alluded to in many past Stargazing articles, Jeremy Howe ($10,510 DEF) is much more effective as a defender than a forward in fantasy, and I’m clearly worried about whether that sticks with Collingwood’s names 22. For what it’s worth, Howe was forward and Frampton was a full-time defender when these sides met in Round 23 – finishing with just 50 points from two goals. Yuck.
Oscar McInerney ($12,790 RUC) is potentially the safest pick on the slate after scores of 95 (43 hitouts) and 106 (41 hitouts) against two very different Collingwood ruck divisions in those games. He’s perfect for anchoring your Brisbane stacks, along with other midpricers such as Jarrod Berry ($12,240 MID) and Dayne Zorko ($13,560 MID) for win-powered upswings.
Speaking of safe picks, veteran Scott Pendlebury ($13,840 MID) is Collingwood’s consistency candidate. He was amongst their top two scorers in both clashes with the Lions this year with 89 and 122 points, as well as averaging an evergreen 95 points over the past 6 weeks.
Maxis
The Lions might hate the MCG, but former Melburnian Josh Dunkley ($15,760 MID) doesn’t, punching out a huge 145 in his only game at the venue this year. But this isn’t a rebuilding Hawthorn he’s playing, and this isn’t the Draftstars darling Josh Dunkley we’ve come to love, either. Dunks has been playing a more defensive role for the Lions of late, which has reduced his output to a trickle of just 84 points over the past 2 months. A likely stoppages shadow on Jordan De Goey doesn’t leave much room for accumulating the ball going the other way, so buyer beware.
Probably the biggest decision to be made on this slate is whether to chase the ceiling of Nick Daicos ($16,340 MID), or to fade the most expensive player on the slate. Daicos was clearly the best player on the ground when these sides met in Round 4 with 38 touches, 2 sausage rolls and 126 fantasy points, but missed the Round 23 clash through injury. Is he cherry ripe after a shaky first half return last week? Will the extra week of recovery allow him to be unleashed in the midfield, or again forced to play as a high half forward like he was against the Giants – especially with regular flanker Patrick Lipinski joining Taylor Adams on the sidelines?
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Collingwood – MID Stack
Every single one of Collingwood’s 15 tons since Round 19 have been posted by midfielders, which makes the decision of who to target in Pies stacks very black-and-white. There are plenty of permutations to explore in the discounted premium range, with all of Sidebottom, Josh Daicos, Pendlebury, Crisp and De Goey hovering within $1.2k of one another. Combining the best 2-3 performers from this list will be key to reigning victorious in fantasyland if the Pies are to do so in real life.
Brisbane – DEF Stack
Collingwood’s makeshift forward line is great for causing chaos and disrupting established defensive patterns for their opponents – as long as they go fast. When good teams slow them down however, their forward line is suddenly a lot more predictable and that leads to a lot of straight-forward intercepts.
As a result, the Pies are a great match-up for the more attacking types in defence, which we saw play out with scores of 97 for Keidean Coleman and 90 for Conor McKenna just a few weeks ago.
Tbetta.
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