AFL TBETTA SATURDAY
DFS • Fantasy

Draftstars AFL 23 Saturday Round 15 Tips

Jun 23, 2023
11 Min Read

We are nearly through the bye rounds of the AFL, but Saturday still brings a 2-game slate for Draftstars players.

Two WA teams and a Bombers team looking to stay in the top 8 should bring plenty of questions when creating Draftstars lineups. ‘Tbetta’ has analysed the slate and has his ‘Stargazing’ preview ready to go!

MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 Main ($15 entry, 100 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)

SATELLITE:

SYD vs WCE – SCG: Fine.
FREM vs ESS – Optus Stadium: Showers.

 

INNER CORE:

FWD
After weeks of teasing, Liam Henry ($8,280 FWD/MID) finally cashed in on his wing role with a 72 and I’m still interested in his services on two-game slate. It looks like he has a monopoly on the starboard wing with Fremantle likely to roll with part-timers in Frederick, Johnson and Erasmus covering the other side.

Given the hideousness and severity of the crimes that Adelaide’s key forwards committed against West Coast before the bye, you’d be crazy not to look at Sydney trio Joel Amartey ($7,680 FWD/RUC), Logan McDonald ($8,520 FWD) and Hayden McLean ($9,290 FWD/RUC) in the hope of a timely upswing. They’ve all produced scores of 80-plus over the course of the year, so you wouldn’t be breaking new ground in targeting any of them.

We then move into the speculative range with Nat Fyfe ($9,390 FWD/MID), Tom Papley ($10,360 FWD/MID) and Isaac Heeney ($12,390 FWD/MID) all capable of smashing their price-tags on their day. Without the safety net of premium options – Heeney is the most expensive forward-eligible player – you’ll have to pick your poison in this range instead.


MID

It’s hard to separate the young Fremantle pair of Neil Erasmus ($8,870 MID) and Matthew Johnson ($8,950 MID) with some question marks over who plays where with a wing spot and some CBAs available. Johnson pumped out a 93 a fortnight ago and Erasmus posted 85 in his last full game, so it’s fair to say that 10X value is in play for one or both of these rising stars if the chips fall their way.

While the price-tags of Luke Shuey ($11,190 DEF/MID) and Dom Sheed ($12,760 MID) are extremely tempting based on their best selves, it’s hard to consider anyone from West Coast as core-worthy these days. James Rowbottom ($12,360 MID) has been deployed as a two-way midfielder for Sydney since the bye and puts his hand up as a safer alternative in this famously risky price range.

Of course, Callum Mills ($13,730 MID) is only this cheap due to his injury-affected score of très bringing his average down. His role isn’t clear with shifts in defence on top of midfield roles both on the inside and outside this year, but a date with West Coast at the SCG might make that a moot point.

I love the upper echelons of the MID position on this slate – I’ll cover a couple in more detail below – but I want to quickly mention a couple of equally tantalising options here. Errol Gulden ($15,860 MID) has the biggest ceiling on this slate with three scores north of 150 this year, so a West Coast boost could result in absolutely anything. Darcy Parish ($15,270 MID) can also reach great heights on his day, as evidenced by his last two scores of 160 and 122 in sunny WA.

DEF
It’s hard to pinpoint any cheaper defenders that I’d be happy to anchor in my core, so I’d be more inclined to focus on Fremantle stacks and Sydney (downhill) skiers in the DEF line this Saturday.

Braeden Campbell ($9,480 DEF), Oliver Florent ($10,630 DEF) and Justin McInerney ($10,850 DEF/MID) are all modestly priced and the trio averages roughly 6 points more at SCG this year – which isn’t much, but it’s something you can at least hang your hat on. They’ve all hit 90+ at some point within the last few weeks, and it goes without saying that West Coast provides opportunities that most teams don’t.

Jake Lloyd ($14,560 DEF) is the premium Swan on the menu, back in defence after a disaster on the wing against the Saints. I’m not sure how I feel about him at this price – if there were ever a place to avoid on West Coast’s DvP matrix, it’s backline distributors. At clear last place for scoring shots in the league, the Eagles simply don’t generate enough behinds to make Lloyd’s kick-in supremacy a factor.

After scores of 140 and 137 on the trot, Liam Duggan ($14,840 DEF) deserves a shout-out for the heavy lifting he’s doing for West Coast in defence. Both those games were played in the familiar surroundings of Optus Stadium however, so maybe his last three average of 82 on the road is a better projection to build off.

RUC
If Brad Scott keeps it in his pants with the 11th-hour ruck changes for once, then Andrew Phillips ($7,360 FWD/RUC) becomes an absolute autopick. The back-up ruckman should be the most-picked player on this slate with dual-position eligibility and no Sam Draper – he averaged a healthy 75 points over 6 games without the mulleted one in 2021.

 

BLACK HOLES:

Luke Jackson ($14,550 RUC)

Sean Darcy has been named to return (for now, at least), which means that it’s time to jump off the incumbent Luke Jackson after his price has skyrocketed almost $4.5k over the past 6 weeks. The utility has averaged 76 with Darcy in the side compared to this lovely little stretch of 107 without him, although those numbers are a little disingenuous given that the former Demon clearly took a while to settle into life in purple.

Still, he’ll need to replace the bonus hitouts with goals to reach value against Essendon, and that’s not an easy task with the Bombers’ Back 7 going well even before highly-respected recruit Jake Kelly was added to it in this week’s Teamsheets.

Angus Sheldrick ($9,290 MID)

A big part of DFS is leveraging field ownership, so given that Sheldrick’s last couple of scores of 79 and 82 are sure to attract suitors up against the lowly Eagles, now might be a great time to take the side streets and avoid the traffic jam. Casual players may miss the importance of Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney being back in the side, with the pair notching 63% and 76% CBA shares in their last full games, respectively.

As impressive as he’s been over the past fortnight, Sheldrick might have to learn how to play across half forward with more impact than he has in the past now that Sydney’s full midfield contingent is available.

Fringe Midfield Bombers

Not only does Darcy Parish ($15,270 MID) command a huge slice of the CBA pie, he also commands the footy – almost 34 times a game, in fact. Jye Caldwell ($12,290 MID), Ben Hobbs ($12,450 FWD/MID) and even Nic Martin ($14,050 MID) have all enjoyed the extra stats that have been available lately, and they’re now priced accordingly. But given that they increased their individual outputs by 21 points, 18 points and 32 points respectively since Parish has been on the sidelines, I’d be very careful with how often they’re popping in your teams this Saturday.

 

STAR SIGNS:

Elliot Yeo ($13,080 DEF/MID)

Do you like extreme sports? Crazy carnival rides? Mortality-challenging experiences? Whichever chemical those all create in the brain, picking Yeo in any form of fantasy seems to produce the same one, providing a thrill that many people pay good money for. But you’ll only need to pay $13,080 in fake currency to obtain it!

All jokes aside, the lights are all green for Yeo this week, which is usually when things go wrong for him. He’s averaged 91 across his last three starts, including the 95 he still managed to churn out despite being shifted back to defence to cover West Coast’s dire lack of talls. Thankfully, Yeo should be back nudging 70% CBAs with Tom Barrass and Liam Duggan returning to the fray this week, where he’ll take on a Sydney side that concedes more contested possessions than any other in the league.

Andrew Brayshaw ($16,030 MID)

I’m a big fan of the Better Brayshaw in a vacuum, so having a couple of key indicators on his side this week only emboldens my love for Andrew. Firstly, he’s running out onto the hallowed Optus Stadium turf this week, where he’s flashed his ceiling with scores of 157, 135 and 100 in his last three at home. Secondly, his opponent will be the Bombers, against whom he’s posted 123 and 137 most recently. Sign me up.

Zach Merrett ($16,540 MID)

Fremantle haven’t tagged as a club since James Aish went to Rory Laird all the way back in Round 4, and he’s not even in the side this weekend. This is crucial information due to how Merrett deals with a shadow this year, averaging a lacklustre 97 when tagged – especially when compared to the juicy 119 he ticks along at when he’s allowed to roam free with a skip in his step and the wind in his hair.

I usually don’t like to recommend players at this price for the reasons I covered with Tim Taranto last week, but an untagged evening, up against the side that allowed 4 midfielders to ton up against them last week, is too tempting to ignore.

 

GALAXY CLUSTER:

Sydney – Full Stack

Ever wished you could stack more than 5 players in a Draftstars line-up? West Coast gets a couple of decorated soldiers back from injury, but they’re still just another version of the same side that has posted an average losing margin of 284 fantasy points over the last 10 weeks. Just to highlight how crazy that figure is, that’s an extra 13 points per player, per game. Go shopping.

Fremantle – DEF Stack

Essendon trails only St Kilda for points conceded to DEFs, as well as conceding the 2nd-most marks to opponents this season. I’m keen to target Fremantle’s mark-heavy types to stay on trend, with Luke Ryan ($13,060 DEF) a very tempting option given that he’s reeled in the second-most in the league this year with 8.15 per game, joined by Brennan Cox ($9,290 DEF) with 7 and Hayden Young ($12,920 DEF) with 6 on the mark podium.

West Coast – RUC Targets

Bailey J Williams ($12,440 RUC) is going to be needed at as many ruck contests as he can get to if West Coast are having to send Greg Clark in to take 9% of them against the Crows, and then bringing in his namesake Jack Williams for his sophomore game as a makeshift back-up one round later. Of course, Sydney is giving up the most fantasy points to RUCs over the last five, so he was already gambling with a loaded dice.

MULTIVERSE THEORY:

In a parallel universe…

  • I don’t believe in numerology any more than I do astrology or healing crystals, but there’s something cosmic about Dom Sheed’s ($12,760 MID) scoring/moon cycle with totals of 139, 64, 138, 52 over the past month. What’s next in the pattern…
  • Is Nic Martin ($14,050 MID) actually good, or is he just another Champion Data outlier? He’s posted scores of 104, 124, 111 and 114 in the last month, but I’m just waiting for the other shoe to drop…

Tbetta.

Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 4.35pm AEST. ENTER NOW!

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