Tough three game contest to round out Round 11 of the AFL. With plenty of numbers to back up the salaries provided by Draftstars, today’s winners are going to earn it today.
‘Tbetta’ is back with another edition of ‘Stargazing’ by taking a look on who you should be targeting in today’s contests.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 Main ($15 entry, 125 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
RICH vs PORT – MCG: Showers.
COLL vs NTH – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
ADE vs BRIS – Adelaide Oval: Showers.
INNER CORE:
My first thought when loading up the $75,000 AFL Sunday was “what a tough, tough slate”. After 10 weeks of data, there are very few questionably-priced players on Draftstars and there’s no more lay-ups. Below are a few players that piqued my interest:
FWD
He’s been used as a pressure forward in recent times for Port, but I expect Lachie Jones ($6,000 FWD) will switch back to his preferred role in defense. At minimum chips with a soft Richmond match-up, a few cheap +6 combos will help him return value often here.
For a bit of extra coin, you can go up to Will Phillips ($8,420 FWD/MID) and gamble on his CBAs finally translating to increased fantasy scoring. He was granted 72% centre bounce action last week and North’s unchanged midfield mix suggests he’ll see something similar this Sunday. Finally reaching 70 points in his next hurdle.
Dustin Martin ($12,860 FWD/MID) and Shai Bolton ($12,870 FWD/MID) are interesting prospects following Hopper’s injury, scoring 100 and 120 respectively against the Bombers last week. Richmond adding an extra forward (Miller) for a midfielder (Dow) opens up some extra midfield rotations that a caretaker coach might be tempted to fill with his classiest players.
All things considered, I expect that I’ll find myself relying on the safety of Zak Butters ($15,610 FWD/MID) in the FWD slot of a lot of my line-ups on Sunday. He’s been the highest scoring Power player for the past three weeks now with 111, 118 and 148, while the Tigers rank as the best match-up for combined MID/FWDs over the past five rounds.
Zak Butters is now the highest rated player in the AFL, according to Champion Data 👀@SENSportsday | #AFL pic.twitter.com/dEfxReJLIK
— SEN 1116 (@1116sen) May 24, 2023
MID
If Riley Bonner ($9,020 MID) can put a full game together, he’ll absolutely smash his price point. The defender-come-wingman has averaged 51 in the first half over the past fortnight, but just 6 points in the second halves of those same games. Bizarre.
I prefer the reliability of Hugh Greenwood ($9,940 MID) at a similar salary, locked for inside midfield minutes and scoring accordingly with 75 and 87 over the past fortnight. Teammate George Wardlaw ($9,050 MID) is also in that midfield mix and scored well on debut with 82, but that price hike is hefty for a second-gamer in a team like North.
With very few obviously mis-priced players in the $10k-$13k bracket, I’ve moved up to under-priced Premiums in my search for value. Lachie Neale ($14,380 MID) started 2023 uncharacteristically slowly but is starting to heat back up, improving his average from 89 to 102 over the past month. Adelaide’s youth policy in the midfield has resulted in some boosted scoring for their opponents of late, with MIDs reaching their average 75% of the time against the Crows over the past 5 weeks. Neale can feast here.
Another DvP consideration is Connor Rozee ($15,250 MID), who’s staring at all the same positive omens as the aforementioned Butters.
DEF
Finally, some value! Josh Worrell ($6,250 DEF) projects out as one of the best picks of the slate, forcing his way into the senior squad following scores of 99 and 115 in the SANFL. He might not get the same plum intercepting role at AFL level, but I can still see him being deployed as more of a ball-user with Nick Murray, Jordon Butts and Max Michalanney in the squad to do the lockdown stuff.
I love the Port stacks as you’ll see below, so Miles Bergman ($10,390 DEF) and Dan Houston ($12,790 DEF) are in the crosshairs at these price-tags. I have Bergman sliding up to a wing with Travis Boak missing through injury, and I expect him to connect frequently with half-back users like Houston (125 last week) over the course of the game.
Of course, whenever Jordan Dawson ($15,350 DEF/MID) runs out in front of a South Australian crowd, you have to consider him. His last four scores at Adelaide Oval reads 122, 133, 112 and 116.
EXCLUSIVE: Skipper Jordan Dawson is confident the @Adelaide_FC has silenced their critics as the halfway point of the season approaches. In an exclusive interview with 7NEWS, he delivered his verdict on the first 10 rounds and revealed why he is optimistic. @TheoDrop #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/Wb4lnPv7Yz
— 7NEWS Adelaide (@7NewsAdelaide) May 26, 2023
RUC
It’s a bleak slate for ruckmen when you’re genuinely considering Scott Lycett ($10,260 RUC). Personal biases aside, he was impressive last week with 83 points against the oppressive Gawn/Grundy combo, so maybe he’s returned from the depths of the SANFL fresh?
BLACK HOLES:
Darcy Cameron ($11,720 RUC/FWD)
We’re always looking for solo ruckmen in AFL DFS, and the Collingwood combo last week is a perfect example as to why. Cameron (57) and Cox (64) scored 121 fantasy points combined, which was 8 points fewer than the American Pie managed the week prior against GWS. If Collingwood are going to keep these two working in tandem – they both played less than 70% game-time and shared the overall ruck load 59/41 – then they remain completely unpickable on multi-game slates.
Harry Sheezel ($14,950 DEF)
With Clarko stepping aside for the foreseeable future, we saw caretaker coach Brett Ratten opt to unveil Sheezel in a “new” role last weekend. I put that in sarcastic air quotes because it was essentially the role that Harry played throughout his entire junior career, and it’s just the first time we’re seeing it at AFL level.
The Roos are in a state of flux at the moment so it’s difficult to predict how they’ll line-up, but we’ve seen them consistently refuse to play Aaron Hall and Sheezel in the same backline. I know the joey was super impressive with 112 points (25 touches and 2 goals) against the undermanned Swans last week, but the ladder-topping Pies are another kettle of fish entirely. In fact, Collingwood ranks as the worst match-up for general FWDs in the league so far in 2023, so keep that in mind when deciding whether to pick the first-year Roo at almost $15k.
Tim Taranto ($16,890 MID)
Could this be the week that the ton-run comes to a close for the former Giant? Port Adelaide are the toughest match-up in the competition for MIDs so far this year, with only 30% of opposition onballers reaching their season average against the Power. Throw in a potential Willem Drew tag for the highest-priced player on the slate, and this becomes a very easy fade to justify.
STAR SIGNS:
Daicos Day?
Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos ($16,350 DEF/MID) hasn’t had a single breath of fresh air on a football field over the past month, attracting tags from Keays, Clarke, O’Halloran and Ed Curnow. Obviously, his output has dropped significantly with the extra attention, regressing from a hefty 122 to more of a pedestrian 94 fantasy points per game.
The positive news is that I can’t single out an obvious forward tag from the Roos this week. Bailey Scott had the Errol Gulden gig last week, but that was due to overlap in his recent half-back/wing roles. Could this be a rare bout of freedom for Daicos, against a team with green lights right across defensive lines in the DvP matrix?
Buy Jy
They say that we can save the planet by recycling, so I present you a quote from last Saturday’s article: “Skipper Jy Simpkin will need to do some heavy lifting to help carry the load, as he’s done in the past – he’s posted scores of 105 and 110 in his last two games without Luke Davies-Uniacke alongside him”. That stat can now be updated to read 105, 110 and 115 after Jy Simpkin ($13,760 MID) pumped out a season-high with a team-leading 14 contested possessions against the Swans. He’s underpriced here, even with a tough Pies match-up.
Burton Back
With the Power missing key forwards in Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall and Mitch Georgiades, Ryan Burton ($10,080 FWD/DEF) has swung into attack to balance the vertical scales; but it’s come at a cost. Burton has produced fantasy scores of just 51 & 57 in attack, well below his average of 72 as a defender this year.
The way I’m reading Port’s Teamsheets, one of Darcy Byrne-Jones and Burton will have to slide back to help out in defence. With the Tigers naming 3 tall forwards and yet another suspension for skipper Tom Jonas, I favour the taller of the pair, which finally brings me to my point. A switch back for Burton would allow him to cash in on the evolving trend below…
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Port Adelaide – DEF Stack
Richmond is giving up a truckload of points to DEFs over the last 5 weeks, bumping them up to second overall behind St Kilda. Take the Dreamtime match last weekend for example – we had defenders in Ridley (127 from 14 marks), McGrath (117, 12), Redman (107, 8) and even Heppell (92, 9) smash their price points. Packaging up the Power backmen could pay off similarly on Sunday.
Collingwood – Full Stack
Despite tightening up in the past fortnight overall, North Melbourne are still giving up a heap of points to FWDs/DEFs lately and we could see some Pies benefit. Along with Nick Daicos, John Noble ($12,760 DEF) and Darcy Moore ($10,370 DEF) should be targeted in defence with both flashing their three-digit ceilings last week. In attack, I like the idea of spreading my exposures to the cheaper Pies players, with any of them capable of hitting 10X on their day.
Richmond – RUC Targets
Lycett managed his best score for the year with an 83 in his return to the senior squad last week, but Toby Nankervis ($14,990 RUC) is inevitable. Not only does he have a basement score of 94 for the season, he averages a massive 114 across his last four meetings with the Power. Target Nank for some safety amongst a tough ruck ensemble this Sunday.
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.10pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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