Our opening 5-game Super Saturday Draftstars contest for the season. Glad this is Round 7 instead of Round 1 but it means we have a whopping 220 players to dissect and squeeze into a 9-person Draftstars lineup. Good thing we have top Draftstars player ‘Tbetta’ who has gone through all 10 teams featuring on Saturday and selecting his top plays in this week’s edition of Stargazing.
If you missed last week, make sure you check out our educational piece – How to Win on Draftstars with limited entries. Keep this in mind when building your Draftstars lineups!
MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 Main ($15 entry, 125 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
BRIS vs FREM – Gabba: Low chance of showers.
SYD vs GWS – SCG: Showers. Take care with mark-heavy players.
WBD vs HAW – Marvel: Under the roof.
MEL vs NTH – MCG: Low chance of showers.
WCE vs CAR – Optus: Fine.
INNER CORE:
FWD
It’s our first 5-game slate of the year, so we’re unusually spoilt for choice. Angus Sheldrick ($6,000 MID/FWD) is shaping up as one of the value picks of the slate, essentially slipping into the Matt Roberts-sized hole in the Swans side. Sheldrick has been crushing it in the VFL this year with a 104-point average, headlined by his 39 touches, 6 marks, 7 tackles and 2 sausage rolls for 158 against the Northern Bullants last weekend. I have him and daylight ahead of other basement-priced forwards in Max Ramsden ($6,000 RUC/FWD) and Toby Bedford ($6,000 FWD) for the salary-saver spot in your core.
Swans VFL Headlines:
Tom Hickey made his return from injury on managed minutes.
Angus Sheldrick with 35 disposals and 2 goals, perhaps the contested bull the Swans’ midfield needs.
F/S prospect Indhi Kirk did some nice things, so too Academy prospect Caiden Cleary.
— Justin Edwards (@JEdwardsFOX) April 23, 2023
Tom Powell’s ($9,050 MID/FWD) CBAs were elevated against the Suns, and despite Jy Simpkin returning, I think he could return value. He outlasted fellow fringe MIDs in Will Phillips, Daniel Howe and Darcy Tucker, after all.
Harry McKay ($12,390 FWD) and Charlie Curnow ($12,070 FWD) will rightly be very popular given their upcoming ménage à trois with West Coast’s backline. It’s a packed price bracket though with Caleb Daniel and Dayne Zorko and their increasing CBA’s nearby, while Bailey Smith ($13,630 MID/FWD) is the high-risk, high-reward option after picking up FWD status during his hiatus with a calf complaint.
MID
Xavier O’Halloran ($6,850 MID) continues to kick metaphorical goals as a midfielder with 90 last week, although he did have three actual goals against the Lions, too. He appears locked in to that onball unit even with Tom Green back, thanks to Callum Ward’s suspension and Harry Rowston’s axing. Luke Edwards ($7,000 MID) hasn’t fired a shot yet, but the 52% CBA share last week piques my interest slightly as an alternative with Zane Trew dropped, Luke Shuey out injured again and Jai Culley re-inventing himself as a forward.
Xavier O’Halloran only just made the cut at the Giants at the end of last year, started the year in the VFL and would have been facing selection pressure again with Bedford, Green and Perryman to fit in. This is massive in the context of his career.
— Daniel Cherny (@DanielCherny) April 22, 2023
Conor Nash ($10,510 MID) is underpriced if he retains his midfield role, having produced scores of 92, 104 and 95 within the last four weeks. I see him as an excellent size match-up for Marcus Bontempelli, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him prioritised at centre bounces as a defensive onballer – he certainly loves a tackle, averaging 7 over the past month.
Expect to see a lot of love for Hugh McCluggage at $12,490 following last week’s 94 and a game at The Gabba on his plate. It’s a tricky range though, as Chad Warner ($12,600 MID), Jy Simpkin ($12,730 MID), Lachie Neale ($13,410 MID), Jack Macrae ($13,600 MID), Jack Viney ($13,910 MID) and even Will Day ($13,940 MID) are all underpriced and will force you to make some big decisions.
If you’re paying up in the midfield, I like Adam Treloar ($14,560 MID) with limitless CBA’s due to the Tom Liberatore’s concussion on top of his recent form of 112 and 105. Sam Walsh ($15,540 MID) looked amazing considering his limited pre-season and only has the Eagles to contend with, while Clayton Oliver ($17,630 MID) fronts up against the most potent midfield match-up in the land in North Melbourne.
DEF
Josh Weddle (6,000 DEF) was on the radar for a lot of fantasy footy coaches in the pre-season and he finally gets his chance against the leaky Bulldogs defence in Round 7. He’s fresh off 110 in the VFL and appears worthy of a spot in your core. Teammate Seamus Mitchell ($7,700 DEF) has the same match-up and showed the ability to score in bursts over the past fortnight.
Jason Johannisen ($9,050 DEF) faced the hardest backline match-up last week in Fremantle for his 67, so I expect him to return to his normal programming of 80’s and 90’s as a backman against the leakier Hawks. Likewise, Bailey Dale ($11,470 DEF) has had to deal with the Dockers and a Darcy Byrne-Jones tag over the past fortnight, so expect him to bounce back to his best this weekend.
The backline bubble feels like it’s about to burst with teams adjusting to distributors like Harry Sheezel and Sam Docherty, who now feel overpriced until their salaries level out. I’d rather target some of the cheaper defenders on the way up, such as Lachie Whitfield ($12,990 DEF). He picked up kick-in duties from Isaac Cumming for the first time this year with a healthy 7-1 margin, and he should shoot past the 100-point threshold more often if that continues.
RUC
Marc Pittonet ($8,050 RUC) didn’t set the world alight last week with a middling 66 against the Saints, but he’s the solo ruckman once again and comes up against the softest ruck match-up in the league – West Coast are handing opposition ruckmen an extra 19 points on top of their regular output recently. Ned Reeves ($9,450 RUC) is another contender in the same price range, finally free of his Lloyd Meek and Max Lynch shackles and ready to blow his price-tag out of the water.
It’s the opposite situation with Brodie Grundy ($13,760 RUC), highlighting how unattractive dual ruckmen are with just 54 points the week Max Gawn comes back. So, if you’re paying up, Tim English ($16,070 RUC) is the standout option with a lowest score of 111 this year, and 123 in his last three outings.
BLACK HOLES:
Oscar McInerney ($12,090 RUC)
Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson are not two blokes you want to see in a dark alley as a ruckman in 2023, with rucks currently scoring 13 points under their regular output against the Dockers – the largest single negative DvP trend this year.
I talked up Big O as someone to target last week given he’s averaging an extra 20 points without Darcy Fort in the side, but I don’t think even that little perk can help him overcome the purple blanket this week.
Callum Mills ($14,270 MID)
Mills proved last year he’s a great footballer, and he’s proven this year that he’s a great Captain too, filling a huge positional void for the Swans in a time of injury crisis. Unfortunately for us, the old-fashioned full-back role isn’t Mills’s ideal DFS gig, averaging a modest 89 fantasy points from just 5% CBA share in the past fortnight.
29% of game time in defence for Callum Mills this season. #SuperCoach #AFLFantasy
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) April 23, 2023
Getting Tom McCartin back is a huge positive indicator for Mills long-term, but with Robbie Fox going the other to join fellow key defenders in Dane Rampe, Paddy McCartin and Lewis Melican on the injury list, the sub-optimal roles could continue for the reigning Bob Skilton Medallist.
Harry Sheezel ($13,970 DEF)
All the key indicators weren’t looking flash for Sheezel coming into Round 6 – the corkie, the bung thumb and the return of Aaron Hall. 97% of the field were able to read the tea leaves and fade him before his incredible run snapped with a 47, thanks largely to a nasty Nick Holman forward tag before a half-time swap with the aforementioned Hall.
Even if the Teamsheets didn’t suggest that he’d be fighting over the easy ball with a couple of veterans in Hall and Jack Ziebell in defence – which they do – we now know that the forward switch is a button Coach Clarko is willing to press. I’d be proceeding with an abundance of caution.
STAR SIGNS:
No Libba
Addition by subtraction has been a DFS theme for Bulldogs midfielders over the last half a decade, so who gets the boost this week? Tom Liberatore was averaging a team-high (not including ruckmen) 80% CBAs prior to his concussion last week, so there’s plenty of midfield goodness available.
I’ve noted previously that Jack Macrae (-13%) and Bailey Smith (-21%) have been on a CBA diet since last year, so they’re the obvious recipients at roughly $13,600 apiece. However, Caleb Daniel ($12,820 FWD/DEF) was unleashed in the midfield for 59% CBA action all the way back in Round 2 when Adam Treloar missed, so don’t rule him out. Daniel has shifted forward for scores of 77, 76, 75 and 78 in the past month, so this would be a big promotion for the small dalmatian.
Daybreak
The rebuilding Hawks are always far from settled under Sam Mitchell, with multiple debutants named on top of returns for midfielders Will Day and Josh Ward. Given the blistering run of form for Jai Newcombe (119, 122), James Worpel (114, 88) and Conor Nash (105, 94) has coincided with Day’s fortnight in the naughty corner, could there be some manual recalibration of the Hawthorn midfield projections required this weekend?
Thankfully, youngsters in Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald and Ned Long have all been dropped this week to ease the midfield squeeze somewhat.
Caleb’s Clock
A clash with the Lions at The Gabba is probably not the best time to finally give a shout-out to Caleb Serong, but he deserves some recognition for his 4th-year breakout. Apart from the obvious natural improvement, Serong’s 21-point jump this year can be attributed to a better aerobic tank, with his TOG rising from 75% to 84% in early 2023.
That’s allowed him to increase his CBA share from 66 to 81, which is a 23% improvement. And wouldn’t you know it, his fantasy scoring increased 23% from 91 points per game to 112 right along with it! Serong is the poster boy for why we follow KPIs so closely in the fantasy footy industry, and while you’ll see this article littered with them twice a week.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Carlton – FWD, MID, RUC Stack
Another week, another front-heavy stack against West Coast. Carlton finally sorted their midfield out last week with some clearer roles – Matt Kennedy (now dropped) slid to HBF while Ed Curnow was marooned as a defensive forward on Jack Sinclair.
This allowed Sam Walsh (131 fantasy points from 83% CBA share), Patrick Cripps (126 from 79%), Adam Cerra (130 from 71%) and George Hewett (85 from 71%) to split the midfield minutes exclusively, which is how they enjoyed all that fantasy success to start 2022. Stack all the above with the efficient seagull Blake Acres, while matching them up with Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow for the ultimate Carlton combos.
Melbourne – Full Stack
After a spirited start under the tutelage of favourite son Alistair Clarkson, North have bled big numbers to opponents over the last month. A massive 368-point deficit on average, in fact. For that reason alone, you have to investigate potential Melbourne stacks, with value to be found across all lines bar the ruck.
The best place to get surgical is the forward line though, with North playing some matador defence of late. Harry McKay (119 fantasy points from 4 goals), Charlie Curnow (114 & 6), Joe Daniher (120 & 5), and Eric Hipwood (98 & 4) all had days out, while North even managed to make Ben King look like Buddy Franklin by conceding 5 goals to the horribly out-of-form forward. New recruit Josh Schache and Jacob Van Rooyen beckon at bargain prices, while Bayley Fritsch ($10,060 FWD) has been known to feast on the weak.
Hawthorn – DEF Stack
The Bulldogs remain easily the juiciest DEF match-up in the league, as evidenced as recently as last week with Luke Ryan’s 10 marks and 119 fantasy points. For this reason, I have some love for the stylistically-similar James Sicily ($15,480 DEF) for the second week running, back in form last week with 11 marks and 115. Mix and match him with the other defensive Hawks on the slate, who are all favourably-priced.
MULTIVERSE THEORY:
In a parallel universe:
- Looking at the Swans lopsided forward and backlines height-wise, is it possible that Aaron Francis swings back? This could free up Callum Mills to make a liar out of me above…
- Cam Zurhaar was trialled as a midfielder this pre-season – with Phillips, Howe and Tucker all dropped, could we see the bull unleashed against the Demons…?
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.45pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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