AFL TBETTA SATURDAY
DFS • Fantasy • Sport

Draftstars AFL 23 Saturday Round 1 Tips

Mar 17, 2023
9 Min Read

Here we go! First Multi Game slate of the 2023 AFL Season, and to celebrate, we’ve gone for a space theme! Let’s break down what is happening on Saturday so you can explore this wide galaxy of Draftstars AFL!

MAIN CONTESTS:
$90,000 Main ($15 entry, 150 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Mini on ($2 entry, 25 max)
$2,000 Micro on ($0.50 entry, 100 max)

AFL Saturday $90,000

SATELLITE:

NM vs WCE – We have roof over our heads.

Port vs Bris – Looking fine.

Mel vs WBD – Looking fine.

GCS vs Syd – It is dewy. Favour contested types.

INNER CORE:

FWD

There’s a swathe of cheap options available on this slate, so surgical precision with the cheapies will be required. I normally wouldn’t pluck a key forward from the crowd – let alone one that hasn’t played an AFL game in almost 600 days – but Oscar Allen ($7,660 FWD) has the best match-up he’ll get all year. Alex Davies ($6,950 MID/FWD) had edged out Fiorini for the last midfield rotation and could be worth a look, while the age profile is flipped for veteran Liam Shiels ($7,140 MID/FWD) over Will Phillips in a new-look North outfit. Jack Ziebell, Darcy Macpherson and Kysaiah Pickett all have new or improved roles in the mid-range, while Josh Dunkley looks primed for a career year at his new club but you’ll have to pay up for him at a whopping $16,070.

MID

Oskar Baker looks to be the pick of the basement-priced midfield rookies with a wing role that produced 0.83 PPM in the pre-season, but you might want to pay up slightly for the safety of West Coast wunderkind Reuben Ginbey ($7,440 MID). The mid-range is packed following the off-season winds of change, with Tom Powell, Xavier Duursma, Lachie Hunter and Dom Sheed looking at significantly more favorable climates. As for those with Premium status, there’s plenty to choose from with prices still lagging from last season. Bailey Smith ($14,200 MID) and Jack Macrae ($15,030) look under-priced and can correlate together, while you can get big names like Lachie Neale and Christian Petracca in the same price range after soreness hindered their scoring in late 2022.

DEF

Continuing the theme of cheap Eagles dominating this slate is debutant Campbell Chesser ($6,000 MID/DEF) and club debutant Jayden Hunt ($6,430 DEF) with the soft match-up to start the season. Jake Bowey ($8,520 DEF) is worth a long look after shooting up the pecking order with Steven May and Christian Salem absent. Charlie Constable, Luke McDonald and Angus Brayshaw all have similar situations playing out at their respective clubs and have to be considered outside of popular defender stacks.

RUC

Jarrod Witts ($12,930 RUC) should be the most-owned ruckman on this slate with a soft match-up against Peter Ladhams and a monster average of 114 in his last five against the Swans. Smart punters will diversify with some Tristan Xerri ($10,200 RUC) stocks given he’s finally shaken Todd Goldstein from the side, with a Naitanui-less West Coast a timely bonus. Similarly, Scott Lycett and Oscar McInerney have dispatched similar nuisances in Brynn Teakle and Darcy Fort respectively, so they at least tick the “solo ruck” box we all look out for on multi-game slates.

BLACK HOLES:

Touk Miller ($16,700 MID)

We’ve been lucky enough to dodge a lot of the tagging clubs on this slate (and it helps that Ryan Clarke is injured), but could the Swans benefit from the lesson they learned in Round 8 last year? Miller had a 33-point first term before James Rowbottom was given an assignment, scoring just 59 from the remaining three quarters. Add in the bloated price-tag and a pre-season hamstring niggle, and I’m happy to let others take the gamble.

Errol Gulden ($13,890 FWD/MID)

Is it possible to fade a player after he scores 177 the week before and still sneaks in under $14k? I guarantee you that no one in the fantasy industry – let alone the DFS community – missed Gulden’s coming of age, which means we have a choice to make: match the field and enjoy the ride, or leverage the massive hype and hope he burns those chasing last week’s numbers. For the record, I’ll think he’ll be great.

Max Gawn ($15,540 RUC) & Brodie Grundy ($13,220 RUC)

I mentioned earlier the preference for solo rucks, and this Melbourne tag-team is a prime example of what to avoid. Both the All-Australian mainstays are fully-priced, sharing the ruck 50-50 and can’t rely on the 3 goals they each kicked in the pre-season clash – where they only racked up 173 fantasy points combined.

Will Ashcroft ($8,550 MID)

Much like Gulden, this is a big leverage play against the unchecked fantasy hype vortex surrounding Ashcroft. There’s a bit more gristle to fuss over here though – he cops a big price bump for a debutant and he takes on the hardest club to score against on their home deck first up. Better options available.

STAR SIGNS:

Outsiders vs Suns

If you’re looking for a trend to milk, Gold Coast’s horrendous transition defense at the end of last year is a good place to start. I’m not overly moved by the salaries of many of the Swans defenders and wingmen in a vacuum, but there’s definitely value to be found when looking through the lens of a stack. Jake Lloyd and Nick Blakey are priced below their peaks, but it’s players like Braeden Campbell ($6,750), Harry Cunningham ($7,600), Dylan Stephens ($9,820) or Justin McInerney ($9,150) that could all bob up and win you a slate at low ownership in the right combination.

Fade The Lions

Over the last 10 games of 2022, Port scored the most fantasy points of any team whilst conceding the fewest points of any team for a whopping +197 differential. Brisbane aren’t the highest scoring fantasy squad to begin with, but add in a fiery start on Port’s home deck and I’ll be finding excuses to look away from Lions on this slate.

Replacement Suns

It’s not so much a stat as it is a fact, but the Gold Coast injury list features all of Lachie Weller, Wil Powell, Sean Lemmens and now Brandon Ellis, whilst Jack Bowes is playing in the 2’s in another state. That’s a lot of backmen out, which has required some creativity from Gold Coast. New recruit Ben Long ($9,180 DEF) will definitely feature back there with memories of his 138 in the final round of last season still fresh in the mind, while Darcy Macpherson ($8,370) and Charlie Constable ($8,510) have reinvented themselves to give the Suns more options.

GALAXY CLUSTER:

West Coast – Full Stack

The AFL hasn’t missed a trick with their fixturing, scheduling tight affairs across Round 1 and Saturday is no exception. So, without the simple excuse of lopsided score lines, our stacking needs to be more based around DvP (defense versus position) on this slate. Thankfully, in addition to boasting a disproportionate number of the value options available the Eagles are also getting green lights across the board with the rebuilding Roos. I like focussing on matching up the defender combos given that West Coast averaged more marks in defensive 50 than any other club last season – based on the pre-season where the top three scorers were all defenders with at least 11 marks each, nothing has changed.

Melbourne – DEF Stack

Defenders against the Bulldogs last year was an absolute goldmine, and I’m whacking the hard hat on again in 2023 with very little changing for them over the off-season. This correlates with some key personnel out for the Demons back there, so I’m looking for a number of players to receive a double boost. Jake Bowey and Trent Rivers stand out, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the pricier Angus Brayshaw start in defence even with Jack Viney missing.

MULTIVERSE THEORY:

In a parallel universe:

  • The slate winner pulls off the full game stack with 8 players from the Eagles-Roos clash. They were ranked 1st and 3rd in fantasy points conceded last season and a heap of value options belong to both sides…
  • Someone wins big on the fabled Double Ruck strategy. There’s plenty of solo ruckmen to choose from, but it’s a pairing with Bailey J. Williams that piques the interest. BJ’s last two scores without NicNat alongside him reads 108 & 106…
  • The Suns stack pays off. Who knows what effect the Grand Final capitulation has on the Swans, but recent anecdotal evidence isn’t positive. If the Suns can capitalise on their home deck with some cheap defenders in the mix…
  • Jake Lloyd is on a downward career trajectory with some ugly ducklings becoming beautiful Swans in recent times, but he winds back the clock against his bunny side following a last three scores of 114, 116 and 109 against the Suns…

Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.45pm AEDT. ENTER NOW!

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