Round 16 of the AFL season gets underway on a Saturday this year, which is a bit odd, but given the amount of footy we’ve had recently, it’s beginning to seem more normal! As usual, we have a preview and sports betting tips for every game across the weekend courtesy of Before You Bet.
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
Saturday, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm (AEST)
The Roos have been in some horror form of late, losing their last five games on the trot by an average margin of 36.8 points. They’ll have another tough test on Saturday night as they come up against the top-of-the-table Port Adelaide Power. By contrast, the Power are in nice touch having won their last two over the Hawks and Swans.
With so many key players out with injury at the moment, we can’t see the Roos giving the Power too much trouble here. The line starts at 32.5 points, which doesn’t seem enough considering North Melbourne were pulverised by the Suns by 63 points in their last game, and the Power are a better side than the Gold Coast. Back Port Adelaide to cover here.
Tip: Power -32.5 ($1.90)
St Kilda vs Hawthorn
Sunday, Metricon Stadium, 1.05pm (AEST)
The Saints have suffered two heartbreaking defeats in back-to-back weeks. They went down to the Lions by just two points in Round 13 before getting done by three points against the Demons in Round 14. They’ll be desperate to bounce back here to maintain their spot in the top eight before a tough final two rounds against the Eagles and Giants will decide the fate of their season.
The Hawks embarrassingly handed the Crows their first win of the season on Tuesday night and will be on the back of a pretty short break when they line up against the Saints on Sunday. If they bring that type of performance against a well-rested Saints, it should be a comfortable St. Kilda win.
Tip: Saints -20.5 ($1.90)
Geelong vs Essendon
Sunday, Gabba, 3.35pm (AEST)
The Cats have won their last five on the trot and will be coming off an extended break after last playing on Friday night in a win over the Bulldogs. Trailing at half time, the Cats came back to win in a great second half performance and they’ll start as 18.5 point favourites over the Bombers.
Essendon were competitive in their game against the Eagles in Round 15 and are absolutely desperate at the moment as they try to stay in top eight contention. They currently sit just one game outside of the eight and you have to think an ‘all or nothing’ performance is coming here. Regardless of result, we think they cover a pretty hefty 18.5 point line here.
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast
Sunday, Metricon Stadium, 6.10pm (AEST)
The Dogs are in a similar position to the Bombers as we head into Round 16. They currently sit just one game outside the top eight and have a really tough challenge ahead of them as they square off against the Eagles at Metricon on Sunday.
The Eagles start as 6.5 point favourites, which seems a little low given how dynamic they have been on offence in recent times. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and those wins have come at an average margin of 28.1 points.
Tip: Eagles -6.5 ($1.90)
Melbourne vs Fremantle
Monday, Cazaly’s Stadium, 7.10pm (AEST)
It’s been almost impossible to read the Demons this season. One week they come out and look like genuine finals contenders, as they did in Round 14 against the Saints. Then sometimes, they come out and lay an absolute egg, like they did just a few days later in a 21-point loss to the Swans.
Tough to get a read on this game as the Dockers have also been pretty inconsistent this season. The Demons desperately need a win to stay in contention with the top eight. They have alternated win-loss results for the last four weeks, so it seems only natural that they will come out and put together a spirited performance to keep us guessing.
Adelaide vs GWS
Tuesday, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm (AEST)
The Crows did their job, they got a win and have avoided finishing the 2020 season with zero premiership points. Their reward? A Tuesday night date with an in-form Giants side that is fighting to stay in the top eight. The Giants were solid against the Blues after a shaky start, making it two straight wins. They have a tough finish to the season with games against Melbourne and St Kilda in the last two weeks, so they will be banking on a win here to make their job easier.
Can’t see the Giants losing this one. They seemed to hit their straps in the last quarter of their clash against the Blues and if they bring that sort of form, they should be able to win this one comfortably. GWS thrive in good conditions where they can utilise slick ball movement and no rain is forecast in Adelaide on Tuesday night. This one has the feeling of a blowout.
Tip: Giants 40+ ($3.60)
Carlton vs Sydney
Tuesday, Metricon Stadium, 8.10pm (AEST)
The Blues have been competitive in a bunch of games this season but seem to always fall just short. They have lost their last two to the Pies and Giants and have a really winnable game on Tuesday night to keep them barely in touch with the top eight. They will need to win all three of their remaining games to have any chance, even then, it’s unlikely that they’ll sneak in.
They start as $1.55 favourites at Metricon Stadium against the Swans, which is a little odd given the Swans inspired performance against the Demons on the weekend. Sydney seems to have a new style that is much more aggressive and have some key players back in the line-up, highlighted by skipper Josh Kennedy. Love the value of them here against a struggling Blues side.
Tip: Sydney ($2.44)
Brisbane vs Gold Coast
Wednesday, Gabba, 7.10pm (AEST)
At the time of writing, Brisbane are yet to play their Friday night game against the Pies, but with so much on the line for the Lions, we doubt the result of that game should effect their Wednesday night clash against the Suns at all.
The Lions will want to win to push for a top four spot and can’t see them dropping this game against the 13th placed Suns, especially at the Gabba, where they are 6-0 this season. Back them to win this one in a relatively close game.
Tip: Brisbane 1-39
