A shaky 2020 AFL season continues with Round 5 this weekend, before teams look set to move into hubs around the country to continue the season. What affect that has on teams and results remains to be seen. In the meantime, here’s our preview and AFL betting tips for Round 5 thanks to the team at Before You Bet.
Thursday
7:40pm Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints
Not the sexiest of games to kick off Round 5 but certainly one that gives huge opportunity to one of these clubs to climb to 3-2 on the season.
The Blues grinded out a thrilling win for the second straight week when they toppled the Bombers in Round 4 – perhaps a sign of some maturity from their young core.
The Saints were also impressive last weekend when they put the Tigers to the sword when Dan Butler got his revenge with a couple of goals.
Both clubs have exceeded expectations early in the season but the Saints are the ones to beat here. They’ve shown a higher ceiling and the Saints should be covering the -2.5 line at Etihad.
Prediction: St. Kilda -2.5 @$1.92
Friday
7:50pm Collingwood Magpies vs. Essendon Bombers
The Magpies put in a good effort against the Giants in the match of the round last weekend but just fell short.
A knee injury to their best defender in Jeremy Howe will cause some headaches, as will the four game suspension to Steele Sidebottom for a covid breach.
Despite the big outs for the Magpies, they still have a big talent advantage over a Bombers side that lost to the Blues last weekend. The line has been set at just -13.5 and we have the Magpies covering that.
Prediction: Collingwood -13.5 @$1.95
Saturday
1:45pm West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans
The Eagles are a rabble at the moment and it’s pretty difficult to understand why. They win the flag in ’18 and finish 5th in ’19 and then add an elite midfielder in Tim Kelly in the offseason. It’s still early days but they need to get it together ASAP if they’re to feature in the business end of ’20.
The Swans aren’t quite a rabble but they certainly won’t be competing when the whips are cracking this season – and that’s OK. They’re clearly in rebuild mode and their priority is to stay relatively competitive while getting reps into their young studs.
Very, very hard game to predict here and all signs lead to a close encounter. As bad as the Eagles have been, they have to click at some point and perhaps the soft matchup against a young Swans outfit will suit. Predicting the Eagles by 1-24 at great odds.
Prediction: West Coast 1-24 @$2.60
4:35pm Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns
This is a nice little curtain raiser for the main event a little later on Saturday night.
The Cats were able to bounce back from their shock loss to the Blues, albeit not very convincingly against the Demons last weekend.
The Suns bandwagon is bordering on full after their third straight win, as is the Matty Rowell bandwagon after three straight BOG’s.
Another tough one to predict but on form you can’t go past the Suns +20.5 line here. They’ve been fantastic since play resumed and a blowout loss would be a bit of a shock.
Prediction: Gold Coast +20.5 @$1.90
7:40pm Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne
Free to air on Saturday night is the Dogs vs Roos fixture which could end up being a decent tussle.
The Bulldogs secured win #2 on the season when they beat the Swans convincingly last weekend, while the Kangaroos just fell short against the Hawks after a fourth quarter surge.
Form leads towards a Bulldogs win and we don’t hate the odds of them doing just that. They have the higher ceiling and the Dogs should be getting the chocolates at a decent price.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs to win @$1.71
7:40pm Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power
Undoubtedly the game of the round is on Saturday night between the Lions and the Power at the Gabba. It’s 3rd vs 1st and a battle between the two form sides of the competition.
Brisbane have had the luxury of multiple home games in a row and they’ve taken advantage with three straight wins. Meanwhile, Port Adelaide are yet to taste defeat and come into this with an unrivalled percentage (236.3%).
You’d be brave to pick a winner in this evenly poised contest with both clubs around the $1.90 mark. Instead, grab your popcorn and back either team under 15.5 points.
Prediction: Either Team Under 15.5 Points @$2.10
Sunday
1:05pm Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers
From the best match of the round on Saturday night we head to the worst match of the round on Sunday. 18th takes on 17th in the battle of the winless clubs.
The Crows have been blown out of the park in all three games since play resumed and it’s hard to find any positives to come out of those games. On the other hand, the Dockers have shown glimpses of what’s to come in the future, although they’ve been dealt a tough blow with skipper Nat Fyfe set to miss through injury (hamstring 1-2 weeks).
Although neither club has secured a win through four rounds, the Dockers have been the clear better side in this matchup. They’re unlucky not to have tasted victory as of yet and they won’t get a better chance than this. Dockers to win this by 25+ points is the value of the round.
Prediction: Fremantle win by 25+ Points @$3.00
3:35pm Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers
The Demons were storming home in a bore fest of a game against the Cats last weekend but fell short by 3 points. They fell to 1-2 on the season but have a game in hand due to last weekend’s ‘bye’.
The Tigers suffered their second straight disappointing defeat when they were torched by the Saints in Round 4, which has left a few question marks about where they’re at in 2020.
Neither side boasts winning form which should make for an interesting affair. In saying that, the Tigers are proven when their backs are against the wall and they look the value at the -10.5 line.
Prediction: Richmond -10.5 @$1.90
6:05pm GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks
The last match in Round 5 looms as a ripper between the Giants and the Hawks in Sydney.
Both clubs were narrow winners in Round 4 and will be keen to use that as a platform to launch in Round 5.
The Giants were the more impressive of the two last weekend in their gritty win over the Magpies. One of the great positives from their win was the play of young stud Tom Green who was sensational late in the fourth.
This should be a fantastic match where both teams have their fair share of opportunities to win. Under 124.5 points looks the move in what should be a grind of a game to close out the round.
Prediction: Under 124.5 Points @$1.85
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