The NBA All Star Weekend is now over. As fans we were treated to a highly contested 4th quarter of the all-star game, an exciting three point shoot-out that game down to the final shot, and one of the most electrifying (and controversial) slam dunk contests of all time!
If you missed the dunk comp, here’s the highlights. Do you think Derrick Jones Jr deserved the win or was Aaron Gordon robbed? (Personally I think it should have been a tie).
With a few days break until games resume, here are my early betting tips for the first day of games out of the all-star break! Head to Playup for all the latest NBA odds and a wide selection of betting markets for every game.
Friday 11:00 am Milwaukee Bucks Vs Detroit Pistons
The Bucks are favoured to win this game by double digits.
Key stats you need to know:
- Bucks: 43.9 made FG per game (48%) | 13.9 threes made per game (36.1%)
- Pistons since trading Drummond: 35.3 made FG per game (43.2%) | 12.3 threes made per game (33.4%)
- Pistons since trading away Drummond: 66 turnovers in 4 games (16.5/gm)
Detroit has lost 4 straight games now, and it is pretty clear they are heading for the lottery as a rebuilding team. In the 8 games prior to that, the Pistons weren’t much better either, going 2-6 in that span with all 6 of their losses coming by double digits.
The Bucks have won their games by an average margin of 12.1ppg this season and on paper their 3rd or even 4th best player, would probably be better than the Pistons best player (Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, Lopez > Wood/Rose). They also have efficient contributions off the bench from guys like DiVincenzo.
An efficient team that is better both offensively and defensively, over the course of the game can more often than not be expected to put them away with a dominating scoreline.
If you can get some good individual performance bets on Christian Wood, he will likely shoulder a lot of the usage for Detroit and could be on pace for another 20-10 type of game.
Friday 11:30 am Miami Heat Vs Atlanta Hawks
Miami are a much stronger team than Atlanta.
Key stats you need to know:
- Fg%: Miami 46.8% | Atlanta 44.7%
- 3pt %: Miami 13.0/34.5 (37.8%) (2nd in NBA) | Atlanta 11.7/35.5 (32.9%) (Worst in NBA)
- Turnovers: Miami 14.9/gm | Atlanta 16.6/gm (Worst in NBA)
- The Hawks commit the most fouls and turnovers in the NBA.
- Miami’s perimeter D is the best in the NBA, as they allow a league lowest 33.7% from three point range.
- In terms of 2nd chance baskets, the Heat limit opposing teams from attacking the glass – only 2 teams give up less offensive rebounds than Miami at 9.3/game (Sacramento and Philadelphia)
- Meanwhile the Hawks give up the 3rd most offensive rebounds in the NBA at 11.2
- Atlanta gives up the 2nd most blocks and steals to their opponents in the NBA at 9.0 and 6.3 a game respectively (the highest are the Cavs at 9.1 and 6.4 with a narrow lead over Atlanta)
The Hawks will play loose and try to push the pace against Miami, as the Heat average the fewest FG attempts in the NBA. The Heat are a much more efficient team though as the stats above suggest, so barring a big game from Trae Young where he gets hot from the outside, Miami should control this game.
The Heat have added defensive minded Andre Iguodala, they have 3 point specialists in Herro and Robinson, and Dragic provides a spark plug off the bench.
With all of the above taken into consideration, Miami could and should win this game by double digits, so there may be extra value looking for a choose-your-own-line in the -8.5 to -9.5 range to get some extra bang for your buck. For those that want to play it conservative, the -6 should be a safer play.
Friday 2:30 pm Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors
Houston are going small ball now that they traded away Clint Capela.
The Rockets score almost 15 points per game more from beyond the three point line than the Warriors this season.
Key stats you need to know:
- Rockets take more shots and at a higher percentage than the Warriors
- Rockets made 15.2 threes (tied for 1st in NBA) per game at 43.9%
- Warriors make 10.5 threes per game at 34.1%
- This stat is compounded by Golden State giving up the most threes to their opponents at the 2nd highest percentage in the NBA (13.4 makes at 38.3%)
- Turnovers between these teams is surprisingly close even with Harden and Westbrook notorious for turning it over: Rockets average 14.5/gm | Warriors 14.7/gm
- Warriors opponents have the 2nd highest assists per game in the NBA at 26.0/gm another indicator that the Rockets drive and dish and ball movement on the perimeter will be a nightmare for Golden State to guard.
All signs point to this game being an exhibition from the Rockets in 3 point shooting and perimeter ball movement. Especially now that they have gone all-in on this style of play, and will have 5 three point threats now instead of 4, with Covington and PJ Tucker playing centre.
On the flip side, the Warriors have little incentive to win this game and they’re more in tank mode right now, with Curry and Klay sidelined. Player development, even inefficient players is taking precedence for the Warriors at this time.
However, expect solid statistical output for the Warriors from Andrew Wiggins, and Marquese Chriss, who will make for intriguing individual player performance bets.
Bet Tip: Rockets -10 in a high scoring game from both teams.
Best of luck on your NBA bets heading into the weekend!
Written By Peter Arena
