IT’S a busy Saturday slate with nine-games on deck in what should be another fun day of NBA action.
Let’s jump straight into it and take a look at the best value on offer;
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
Brooklyn head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in what should be a very one-sided affair. This is a quick turn around rematch after the Nets were able to take care of business effortlessly at home only five nights ago against this young Detroit team.
There shouldn’t be too many surprises in this one as Brooklyn walked away as comfortable 26-point victors in their previous matchup, which was hardly surprising given Detroit’s constant struggles against top-tier opposition to start the season.
While the Brooklyn offence hasn’t quite found its scintillating best, coming up against a net-negative defence here should lend itself to this feeling like a shootaround for Steve Nash’s team.
Detroit offers almost nothing on both ends of the floor. They’re one of the worst offensive efficiencies in the league and they’re one of the worst defensive teams to start the season in NBA history!
The Nets dominated the glass in the meeting between these sides last week and held Detroit to just 40% shooting from the field. While there’s always a chance a positive regression in these instances it just doesn’t set itself to be a good spot for the Pistons who are playing the second of a back-to-back and also their fourth games in just six nights.
This game closed at -12.0 for Brooklyn last time out and even with the adjustments for home court this still seems shy given the difficult situational spot for Detroit.
Give me the road team to cover the double-digit spread in this one.
Our best bet: Brooklyn Nets -10.0
Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trailblazers
Indiana head to Portland to take on the Blazers as they begin a tough road trip on the back of an impressive last outing against the Knicks.
This figures to be an interesting matchup given the inconsistent start to the season for both teams.
What stands out in this one is both are top-10 offensive teams in the early goings of the season, which was expected, and both are bottom third in defence, which again was expected. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising that the total seems an inviting prospect here, particularly given it’s a couple numbers shy of my projections.
Both teams play an uptempo style and the pace of play should put us on course for a high scoring game as a result. Given that both these teams are bottom-five in the league in half-court offensive sets shows that both like to push the ball in transition and get their shots before the opposing defence has the chance to get set. Couple that with both teams being perimeter centric offences and we should get ourselves a real shootout in Oregon.
While I do lean with the home team in this matchup the line seems pretty and I can’t say I’d feel comfortable on either side of the line here. The Under cashing so frequently to start the season means we’re starting to see a lot of true value on Overs markets as a response. My projection is set at almost 237 points so we’re showing a big edge on this number at the moment and I’m happy to pull the trigger in a game that figures to be about both offences
Our best bet: Over 223.0 points
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors
The frisky Golden State Warriors welcome a hapless New Orleans Pelicans side into the Chase Center to conclude this Saturday slate.
Golden State have been very impressive so far and have exceeded all expectations as they eagerly await the return of Klay Thompson in their attempts at another championship run together.
The Warriors – currently 6-1 to begin the season – have performed well and have put together some solid wins on the back of a very impressive defence that is currently top-five in defensive efficiency and points allowed per game.
Jordan Poole has been terrific for the home side and has given Steph Curry some much needed assistance on the offensive end of the court. His coming out party has allowed the rest of the team to play within their capabilities and accept their roles in the team. Their three-point shooting has shone as a result and looks to be one of the greatest advantages in this matchup.
The Pelicans on the other hand have looked like a mess across the board. They are currently on a five-game losing streak and have struggled to score the ball with consistency. There will be no favours for the traveling side in this one as they also face an uphill battle with a significant rest disadvantage.
My numbers has the Warriors favored by 10 points. Factoring in the rest advantage for the Warriors and the significant disadvantages the Pelicans face in almost every measurable metric I’m more than comfortable laying the points here with the home team.
Our best bet: Golden State Warriors -9.5
