IT’S time for some midweek action on the courts as we take a look at the best value in today’s NBA.
San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors
THE Toronto Raptors host San Antonio as they look to continue their current uptrend in form.
Toronto are starting to get their squad back together after clearing Health and Safety Protocols and things have been clicking for them, particularly on the offensive end.
Over the past seven games the Raptors are averaging 116.5 points per game; they are attacking relentlessly in transition and rank amongst the top teams in the league in transition frequency and efficiency.
Fred VanVleet has picked up right where he left off and has registered back-to-back 30 point scoring nights after returning to the lineup. He is currently averaging career highs in points per game, rebounds, assists and field goal percentage – certainly making his case to be an All Star this season.
The hardest thing this season has been consistency of player availability and continuity of lineups, something Toronto is all too familiar with. In terms of lineups, their starting 5 of Fred Vanvleet, Gary Trent Jr, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam is their 4th most used lineup on the season, sharing the floor for only 112 minutes. To put this into perspective, The Utah Jazz (who lead the league in lineup consistency) starting 5 have shared the floor for 919 combined minutes.
The Raptors are going to be a play on team for me and I expect them to continue to improve their position and have a competitive showing on a nightly basis.
San Antonio are in the midst of a brutal seven-game road trip but have had the luxury of a two day rest before their back-to-back in Toronto and Boston.
While we have seen a small regression, the Spurs offence continues to be consistent, and they are still a top 10 offensive side over the past fortnight. Their depth will be tested in this outing with several players missing from their starting lineup, namely Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker.
This matchup projects to be a fast paced game with both teams attacking in transition at a high frequency. The Spurs and Raptors both rank in the top 3 teams in the league in transition frequency and make the most of their opportunities on the open floor on the back of steals and rebounds.
Playing Pascal Siakam at the 5 affords the Raptors offence more versatility without impacting their rebounding ability drastically and allows them to have a much more balanced scoring attack.
In terms of how these two sides matchup, Toronto is taking most of their shots from mid range and out to the arc. This is allowing them to stretch the floor more because they have so many threats from deep that need to be respected.
Over the past three losses for the Spurs they are giving up a lot of high percentage looks from deep which has allowed opponents to make the extra pass and attack the rim with a stretched defence.
While I think the Raptors win this game comfortably, I think the number on this game has been adjusted accordingly and I don’t see a lot of value on the spread. The best value on this matchup is on the total which is currently set at 224.5 points. My projections show a projected total around 228 and even though we don’t have a huge numbers edge, the projected pace and frequency of transition offence should see this total sail over if we get the efficiency both teams are capable of.
Our best bet: Over 223.5 points $1.90 at PlayUp
