WE’VE got a busy day ahead in the NBA and our expert analyst is back with his best on the slate for punters.
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
Dallas hit the road after completing a successful homestand where they won four of their last five games.
The Mavs have really turned a corner and are proving to be a highly competitive unit after achieving some consistency and continuity with their squad.
The potential of this team appears to be realised as they have found a balance between offensive and defensive capacities. They have found a good balance in their rotations and minimised their moments of mediocrity when Luka Doncic isn’t on the floor.
Jalen Brunson has been a huge factor in helping to provide that stability. In his fourth season in the league, Brunson is averaging career highs in points, rebounds and assists per game. Without his contributions and significant leaps this season we would be looking at a very different side.
The Warriors have seen significant regression from the team that set the league on fire over the opening months. They have won five of their last ten games and covered the spread just three times in that stretch.
Turnovers continue to be a huge problem for Ste Kerr’s team. As much as their offensive inconsistencies have been exploited their recklessness with the basketball has hurt them the most – allowing opponents to build pressure off consecutive sets from loose possessions is not going to win games.
Against top 10 defensive units, the Warriors have struggled even more. Over the past fortnight they are 0-2 against such teams and have a -14.5 points differential, scoring only 99 points per 100 possessions and having a spread differential of -14.3
Dallas, on the other hand are holding opponents below 100 points and own a +10.3 points differential while also going +11 on the spread over the same timeframe.
Both teams have tremendous high-level talent in Steph Curry and Luka Doncic, but the steep fall off for the Warriors is what has hurt them the most. While Klay Thompson’s return to the court has been a much-welcomed addition, the rest of the roster hasn’t been able to offer scoring with consistency. Dallas have a much more balanced attack and their bench unit has held their own, with Tim Hardaway Jr leading the reserves.
Kristaps Porzingis really should have a huge advantage against a Warriors side that lacks size and length to bother the big man. Dallas are also a top five defensive rebounding unit and limiting repeat sets and second opportunities is key to breaking down this Warriors side.
Dallas have been dead to last in possessions per game on the season and live in halfcourt sets. If they can control the boards and the pace of the game disrupting Warriors possessions will be key to this contest. My projections have fair line for this total around 200 so we are getting a nice edge for this game. The opening line had Dallas +5.0 which was quickly shaped into a 3.5 for the road team.
While I still show a slight edge towards the Mavericks in this game I’d much rather trust two top-5 defence’s to go about disrupting each other in what should project as a slow paced outing.
Our best bet: Under 210.5 $1.90 at PlayUp
