THE Premier League season is starting to take shape as we get ready for Matchday 7 in football’s biggest league.
There’s plenty of action to look forward to and we’re ready to take a look at the weekend’s marquee fixtures to help find you some market value.
Chelsea v Manchester City
Two title contenders meet at Stamford Bridge in the early kick-off as Chelsea play host to Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
Despite a bumpy start to their title defence, it’d take a brave man to suggest that City weren’t the side to beat right now and even with mixed results in the league they’ve still managed to show flashes of their brilliant best.
Thomas Tuchel’s influence has certainly transformed the belief within the London club and after earning a point away at Anfield – despite playing the second half with 10 men – it’s become very clear that you have to be clinical and dominant if you’re going to breach this backline.
Not only has Chelsea conceded just one goal in the league this season, they’ve given up just three big chances in their five games; two of those came away at Liverpool.
That said, City’s defence is not to be outdone. The Citizens have also conceded just the lone goal in league and own the best defensive record in the division, giving up an incredible 0.49 expected goals allowed per game.
City’s ability to control the tempo of game and dominate possession is second-to-none and it’s difficult to see how Chelsea, despite their array of talent across the park, are able to get on top of Guardiola’s men in that department.
That said, Chelsea have shown a willingness to sit deep and limit the channels available for City’s front men to try and exploit. Much like last season’s Champions League final, Chelsea’s most dangerous attacks will come on the counter and no matter how dominant City are in games it’s always been their Achilles heel under Guardiola.
Despite the hype surrounding this game we’re not anticipating fireworks in West London. The draw stands out as value at current market price, with an expected outcome exceeding that of the implied market probability (32.7%).
Our best bet: Draw @ $3.05
