The mid-season byes are here in the AFL, but that doesn’t necessary make things easier for Draftstars players on Saturday. Whilst we do get the Eagles and their inability to stop opposition scoring and a Port side who are invincible at home this season. ‘Tbetta’ is back with another looking into the Stars with this edition of ‘Stargazing.’
MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 Main ($15 entry, 125 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
PORT vs HAW – Adelaide Oval: Fine.
WCE vs COLL – Optus Stadium: Fine.
WBD vs GEEL – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
GCS vs ADE – TIO Stadium: Hot and humid.
INNER CORE:
FWD
Collingwood has given us a rare debutant to consider in Harvey Harrison ($6,000 FWD), but I’m not overly excited about his DFS prospects. The small forward has averaged just 56 in the VFL this year, with all his better scores coming through multiple goal spikes. The West Coast match is a dream match-up in that respect however, so I’m happy to take a couple of potshots at him in case he snags a couple. The same goes for teammate Jack Ginnivan ($7,740 FWD), whose 66 last week was good for 10X and one of the best value picks of the slate.
I think I was a week early on Ryan Burton’s ($9,030 FWD/DEF) switch back to defense, but with Marshall returning he should finally get his passport stamped for a return to his preferred position. Speaking of Todd Marshall ($9,290 FWD), the Hawthorn DvP puts him in play at that price, even on return from concussion issues. The same goes for his fellow tall forwards, with Ollie Lord ($6,230 FWD) and Jeremy Finlayson ($11,910 FWD/RUC) options at different price points.
The premium bracket up forward is littered with risk, so I find myself gravitating towards some cheaper options in Ben Keays ($12,050 FWD/MID) and Darcy Cameron ($11,430 RUC/FWD) that I’ll cover in more detail below.
MID
It’s that time of the year where our value picks are cheap for a reason, so you really have to talk yourself into them. Mitch Knevitt ($6,630 MID) is one of those, although two sub-affected scores this year makes it an easier task. Given Geelong’s injury list and his 58-point unsubbed average this year, I think he returns value very often at this price. Other options with the injury crisis are Tanner Bruhn ($9,820 MID) and Mark Blicavs ($11,950 MID/RUC), given the guaranteed CBAs on offer.
A couple of lean weeks has wound Brayden Fiorini ($10,050 MID) back to bargain status, but with his pure wing role you’re essentially gambling that the game pans out perfectly. Veteran teammate David Swallow ($11,920 MID) has taken the inside minutes with a 72% CBA average in the past 5 weeks and could upswing if one of Noah Anderson or Matt Rowell cops a tag and he has to do some extra heavy lifting.
Thankfully, the big dogs in the midfield are much safer in the midfield than the forward line. Connor Rozee ($15,340 MID) is my favourite pick with a clash against the Hawks on his home deck, especially as he could go under the radar with Zak Butters ($15,770 MID) all the rage lately. Marcus Bontempelli ($16,060 MID) is one of the only Bulldogs locked into a midfield role this week, but his ceiling and my interest is capped by a likely Mark O’Connor tag. Rory Laird ($16,250 MID) has scored back-to-back 131s and looks just like the 2022 version of himself and a slow start to this season.
DEF
Jack Scrimshaw ($9,050 DEF) has had a disappointing year by any measure, but the James Sicily suspension is his best chance to get back on track. That’s a heap of extra marks and kicks available in defense which has been Scrim’s bread and butter in the past. Mitchell Hinge ($9,860 DEF) is a similar price and could be a safer pick given that injury (either to himself or others) has been his only downfall in recent weeks. His last three unaffected scores are impressive at 91, 80 and 81.
On the flipside, if you’re going for pure upside with no regard for the worst-case scenario, then Elliot Yeo ($11,680 DEF/MID) could be your man. He produced a healthy 84 in his first game back from his latest bout of injury, attending a surprisingly-high 68% of centre bounces with his season-high 74% game-time. Positive signs, I have to say, but not for the faint-hearted.
Notable R11 CBA changes
📈
Ben Keays 70% (+55)
Elliot Yeo 68% (+47)
Jack Sinclair 61% (+40)
Jack Macrae 54% (+34)
Bailey Humphrey 62% (+31)
Isaac Heeney 33% (+24)
Ben Hobbs 55% (+17)📉
Matt Kennedy 0% (-46)
Harry Perryman 0% (-45)
Angus Brayshaw 0% (-36)
Bailey Smith 50% (-25)— Moreira’s Magic (@MoreirasMagic) May 28, 2023
With a lack of accumulators in the Geelong side currently (Paddy Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, etc), Tom Stewart ($14,140 DEF) did a lot of extra playmaking last week with 31 touches and 121 fantasy points. I expect he’ll have just as much responsibility heaped on his plate against the Bulldogs this weekend, so I love him as a solid cash play. The high-upside alternative is Nick Daicos ($16,540 MID/DEF) against the Eagles, who had 126 against them in his fourth-ever game last season. Can he shake the likely Xavier O’Neill tag?
RUC
It’s been a sneaky DvP quirk we’ve targeted over the last few weeks, but Jonathon Ceglar ($10,930 RUC) is a tempting option with Tim English conceding a fair bit to RUCs lately. In fact, the Bulldogs are now the 3rd-easiest match-up for ruckmen over the past five rounds. Ceglar himself has a lowest score of 70 in the past month, so this pick has a solid safety net.
Jarrod Witts ($13,810 RUC) has averaged 50 hitouts over the past three weeks, and another sloppy affair at TIO Stadium in the Northern Territory guarantees plenty of stoppages for him to flex his aerial dominance. I love him at this price, especially in cash teams.
BLACK HOLES:
Scott Lycett ($12,060 RUC)
It’s been a throwback couple of weeks for Lycett, scoring 83 and 100 since his return from the SANFL, as well as just generally looking like an AFL footballer for the first time in 2023. That could come to an end this week however, with Hawthorn’s duo of Lloyd Meek and Ned Reeves ranking as the second-most oppressive RUC match-up this season. Price is up, so time to jump off.
Bevo’s Bulldogs
The CBAs are about to get very difficult again at Footscray, with Adam Treloar’s return from a hamstring injury giving Bevo a full complement of midfielders to choose from. The last time everyone was fit, Jack Macrae ($15,110 FWD/MID) was starting to get phased out of the centre bounces, while Bailey Smith ($14,440 MID) was given a grand total of 0 CBAs to work with. Who knows what Bevo is thinking on any given day – I’m not even convinced he knows what he’s going to do – but be careful with your exposures to the Bulldogs on the fringe this weekend.
Counting Crows
One of the more interesting trends lately has been Gold Coast applying the clamps, with only one opponent (Brisbane) scoring more fantasy points than the competition average in their last 7 outings. As a result, the Suns are now showing red right across the board in the DvP matrix, and a slippery date with them up in the NT isn’t going to help the Crows buck that trend.
STAR SIGNS:
Cam-Cox Combo
We’re always conscious of dual ruck combos and their inability to reach value in tandem, which is why it was a nice surprise to peek under the hood of Collingwood’s rotations in Round 11. They ran an 88/12 ruck split in Darcy’s favour which, amazingly, was a career-high for Darcy Cameron ($11,430 RUC/FWD), smashing his previous best of 72%. With a dream match-up against the Eagles this weekend, it’s going to be very hard to ignore the former Swan at that modest salary if he’s munching on that much of the ruck pie.
Ageing Like a Fine
I’m the first person to point out that Ollie Wines ($13,090 MID) hasn’t been the same player this year, which is partly due to a lack of pre-season and partly because the Power haven’t needed him to be with some young stars taking centre stage. We seemed to have passed the inflection point however, with his previous average of 73 points per game swelling to 87 over the past three weeks. Wines has an incredible record against the Hawks with 126 and 151 in his last two meetings and gets them at Adelaide Oval this week, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reach triple figures for the first time in 2023 on Saturday afternoon.
Interesting that the media hasn’t come for Ollie Wines yet? Or maybe Kane Cornes is refuses to check his own backyard…
He’s dropped 30 SC points since last year, having his worst season in the AFL since he debuted in 2013. He won a Brownlow 18 months ago? What’s going on?
— Tbetta (@Tbetta9) May 7, 2023
Keays To The City
Horses for courses, or a long-term role switch? Ben Keays ($12,050 FWD/MID) was given a huge midfield injection to the jugular last week, stuffed full of 70% CBAs (after averaging just 18% in 2023 previously) in his quest to quell Lachie Neale. Adelaide’s midfield mix hasn’t changed through team selection, so this is purely up to Matthew Nicks and whether he deems anyone at Gold Coast to be worthy of a tight tag. It’s the difference between a modestly-priced Keays racking up something like his season-highs of 28 touches and 109 fantasy points, or the measly 66 points per game he averaged previously.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Collingwood – Full Stack
The most straight-forward stack in DFS is whoever is playing West Coast given their struggles in all facets of the game, conceding a monstrous 1763 fantasy points to their opponents in the past 5 weeks (the competition average is 1535, for context). The DvP matrix says to target Key FWDs and MIDs against the Eagles, but honestly, you can invest in anyone wearing prison bars that makes sense. Collingwood aren’t the highest-scoring team naturally, but they racked up
4 midfield tons with a similarly soft match-up against North last round.
Port Adelaide – Full Stack
The Power are at a) at their home ground where they score an extra 112 fantasy points compared to away and b) up against the team that conceded the 4th-most points this year in the Hawks, so stacks are very much in play. As with the Eagles, Key FWDs and MIDs are the areas to target.
Bulldogs – Full Stack
An undermanned Geelong are conceding huge numbers over the past 3 weeks, outscored by 232 points per game, as well as allowing 4.3 tons and 1.3 scores of 120+. That’s unheard of for the normally stringent Cats, with those numbers previously 2 and 0.1 respectively in 2023. The Bulldogs have a rare opportunity to capitalise on Geelong’s injury list this weekend, especially getting them on the road and away from the comforts of the unique GMHBA Stadium.
MULTIVERSE THEORY:
In a parallel universe:
- Has Zak Butters reached critical mass with all the media attention over the past couple of weeks that he’s now the prime candidate for a Conor Nash tag…?
- Noah Anderson has been the big banana for Gold Coast since Touk Miller went down, but has the past few weeks elevated Matt Rowell into favouritism for a potential Ben Keays tag instead…?
- Jack Crisp ($11,020 MID) has scored between 62 and 72 for five weeks straight – is a date with West Coast the fuel he needs to push past his glass ceiling…?
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.45pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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