Middle of May and injuries across the AFL are starting to bite. But injuries equals opportunities for players who you usually don’t give one thought about in Draftstars action.
‘Tbetta’ is back with another edition of Stargazing for Saturday’s Round 10 contest.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 Main ($15 entry, 125 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,500 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
NTH vs SYD – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
WBD vs ADE – Mars Stadium: Showers.
FREM vs GEEL – Optus Stadium: Fine.
BRIS vs GCS – Gabba: Fine.
ESS vs RICH – MCG: Showers.
INNER CORE:
FWD
If you think that Sydney can flex their muscles against the underdone Kangaroos, then you have to have a close look at all of Harry Cunningham, Aaron Francis and Lance Franklin under $7.5k. Sprinkle them throughout your Swans stacks. Bailey Humphrey ($7,580 FWD) is the alternative in the bargain price-range following 94 from his 19% CBA’s last week, but there’s probably no player in the league with a wider range of scoring outcomes – don’t forget that he produced a big fat 0 as an uninjured starter a few weeks ago.
Getting a dual Brownlow Medalist for just $8,230 is hard to resist, so it’s fair to project Nat Fyfe as one of the most selected picks on the slate. If you want to diversify, there’s a lot of midfields running out there with holes in them this Saturday. Will Phillips ($8,400 MID/FWD) and Tom Powell ($8,930 FWD/MID) could be looking at some extra midfield rotations for North with Luke Davies-Uniacke (LDU) suffering a hamstring injury, plus a trio of mid-priced Bombers (see below) look very tempting with Will Setterfield joining Darcy Parish in the medical tent.
Sadly, we can’t pick Errol Gulden ($16,230 MID) as a premium forward this week, given that the move into a pure midfield role that’s spawned scores of 161 and 153 in the past fortnight has also caused Draftstars to alter his position eligibility accordingly.
Round 9’s top scorer Errol Gulden now has 3 scores of 150+ #AFLFantasy points after just 52 #AFL games.
Fewest games for 3 x 150s (this century):
52 – ERROL GULDEN
64 – Josh Dunkley
71 – Zach Merrett
72 – Matt Priddis
74 – Tom Mitchell— Jaiden Popowski (@jaiden_popowski) May 14, 2023
MID
The tea leaves have settled well for George Wardlaw ($6,000 MID) this week, with a part-time midfield role beckoning for the 4th pick in last year’s National Draft. He’s coming off scores of 90 and 92 in the VFL, so scoring isn’t an issue for the clearly talented youngster – my greater concern would be North’s cautious approach with him so far, which could result in managed minutes on debut. Other options in his range include wingman Harry Sharp ($7,030 MID) after a handy 70 last week and Thomson Dow ($7,220 MID) as a rough Jacob Hopper approximation for Richmond.
Midfield replacements are the theme of this slate and North are sorely in need of an LDU substitute. Hugh Greenwood ($9,070 MID) stepped up last week with season-highs of 55% CBA action, 9 tackles and 76 fantasy points, but he might need to take it to another level again. His skipper Jy Simpkin ($13,440 MID) will need to do some heavy lifting to help carry the load, as he’s done in the past – he’s posted scores of 105 and 110 in his last two games without LDU alongside him.
Meanwhile, Essendon are dealing with their own midfield injury crisis with inside bulls in Will Setterfield and Darcy Parish absent. I’d be all over Dylan Shiel ($12,840 MID) in regular circumstances with his CBAs primed to go through the roof, but a late ankle injury last week muddies the waters. I haven’t forgotten his run to end 2022, where he averaged 99 over the last 9 games of the season after being entrusted in the midfield again. With the uncertainty around his role and fitness, scratching some extra coin together for Bailey Smith ($13,670 MID) after a massive 87% CBA bump from Bevo makes a lot of sense.
Our Premium bracket is also littered with more reliable types that will have to clock some overtime this week. Chad Warner ($14,450 MID) and Luke Parker (14,060 MID) don’t have the Callum Mills safety net anymore, while Zach Merrett ($14,980 MID) has no choice but to carry a heavy inside load. Noah Anderson ($15,930 MID) has stepped up impressively since Touk Miller was felled by injury, pumping out scores of 134 and 132 before attracting a tag against the Eagles.
DEF
Our salary-saving ‘core’ options dry up significantly when flicking to the defensive line, which is why I’ll be reserving these slots for either stacking good match-ups, or paying up for some more reliable types.
Reliable isn’t exactly the word I’d use to describe Liam Baker ($12,060 DEF) this year, but there’s no doubt that there’s a strong link between his scoring and Jayden Short’s presence in the backline. As long as Short is either out of the side or lining up into the midfield (he’s averaged 43% CBAs in the past fortnight), then Baker is in play. Other solid options in that range are Brodie Smith ($12,300 DEF) and Mason Redman ($12,520 DEF), who have solidified themselves as their club’s primary distributors just over a third of the way into season 2023.
RUC
I came into this section ready to talk shit about Lachlan McAndrew ($6,000 RUC) as a DFS option given that he averaged just 31 in the VFL last year, but I’ve completely flipped once loading up the 2023 data. The 210cm giant is averaging a healthy 34 hitouts and 78 fantasy points from his last 5 VFL games this year, and might even edge out Peter Ladhams for primary ruck role given the latter’s mysterious shoulder/neck/arm/body issue. All things considered, McAndrew’s worth a nibble at base price.
“Excitingly Lachlan McAndrew gets his first game. A local product who came through our @QBEaus Sydney Swans Academy system.”
Congrats on the debut Stretch! Details: https://t.co/bz3Ei3Zqvb pic.twitter.com/DE06jwB0Ds
— Sydney Swans (@sydneyswans) May 18, 2023
His head-to-head opponent Todd Goldstein ($12,820 RUC) is another option after throwback scores of 100 and 128 in the past fortnight and only an inexperienced pair to contend with on Saturday afternoon. A left-field option is Reilly O’Brien ($13,360 RUC) given that he’ll be battling a rampant Tim English, but with a blistering scoring run of 141, 129 and 121 in his last three against the Bulldogs, there’s a method to the madness.
BLACK HOLES:
Jack Macrae ($13,260 MID)
I had to check whether Luke Beveridge has a daughter and if Jack Macrae had just started dating her or something, because the 3 time All-Australian is deep into the doghouse with his coach. He was allowed to attend a career-low 9% centre bounces (since the stat was made public, at least), and that was without the injured Adam Treloar in the mix. Macrae hasn’t scored in triple digits for 7 weeks, and that’ll likely continue for as long as he’s Bevo’s whipping boy.
Bailey Dale ($11,630 DEF)
A match-up with the Crows (and the threat of a Ben Keays tag) is enough to throw me off the scent of Dale, who has been a reliable scorer this year – providing the DvP matrix has been consulted first. Scores of 115, 89 and 106 have flowed against the softer teams, but they’ve been littered amongst disappointing totals of 46 (Port), 52 (Fremantle) and 60 (GWS) when facing the red teams. Unfortunately for Bailey, Adelaide is very much in that same crimson basket.
Jack Ziebell ($14,640 DEF)
It’s the same DvP thought process with the former North skipper, with the Swans ranking as the hardest team for deep defenders to score against this year. Now, I should mention that Sydney’s recent injury crisis likely eases the pressure slightly, but the baseline isn’t anything like that of St Kilda, for instance – which was where Ziebell’s only score of 110+ this season came from.
STAR SIGNS:
Top To Bottom
Sydney’s troops are dropping like flies, with Callum Mills and his recently-reinstated midfield role the latest to succumb to the injury curse. The early injury to the Swans’ skipper was the catalyst for James Rowbottom’s ($11,270 MID) heaviest inside midfield split for over a month with a hefty 84% CBA action against the Dockers. He’s only exceeded that once this year (95% against Port in Round 4), and those two games are unsurprisingly responsible for his two best scores for the year.
Rowbottom hasn’t hit the ton this year, but getting an underdone North with some juiced up midfield minutes is the perfect storm to help him finally get one on the board.
Bombers Boosts
Essendon have lost both Parish and Setterfield to injury over the last fortnight, who have been responsible for a combined 139% CBA action – or, put a more intuitive way, almost half of Essendon’s centre bounce attendances from midfielders this year. Brad Scott hasn’t brought in another midfielder to help out, which means that the role will be filled from within.
Jake Stringer ($10,420 FWD/MID) and Jye Caldwell ($9,810 FWD/MID) can expect plenty of midfield stints after spending most of their time across half forward this year, while Ben Hobbs ($10,330 MID) and Archie Perkins ($9,840 FWD/MID) are young guns who’ll get a taste of some trench warfare this weekend.
Full Fyfe
After two weeks biding his time as the tactical sub, Nat Fyfe ($8,230 FWD/MID) is now ripe for the picking in DFS with his price dropping to bargain levels. Based on the Teamsheets (and the dropping of Erasmus to likely be the new sub), we can expect the former Docker to fill a mid-forward role around the 30-50% CBA mark, rather than the pure forward role that he trained in all pre-season. Every time someone has tried to convert Fyfe into a forward, he’s proven – without fail – that CBA’s equals scoring, and I expect Round 10 to be no different.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Richmond – MID Targets
Essendon have been the best match-up for MIDs this year and have just now lost two of their stars to make things even softer for their Dreamtime foes. Meanwhile, Richmond have a couple of players who might see a boost with Jacob Hopper out, meaning that there’s value to be unearthed. I don’t love the full stack strategy here given that the Tigers don’t run a stat-heavy system, but getting surgical with guns like Tim Taranto/ Jayden Short or taking pot-shots at the cheaper Dion Prestia/ Shai Bolton is an attractive play.
Sydney – Full Stack
North have tightened up recently, but they’re still conceding the most fantasy points (and the highest differential) of all 18 clubs this year and they’ve just taken a huge hit to their HP bar with a rough six forced changes at selection. That number could actually be 7, if you throw in their senior coach Alistair Clarkson and his indefinite mental health break. Sydney isn’t exactly fighting fit themselves, but they are much further ahead in their rebuild and have the list quality and gameplan to take advantage of North’s sudden misfortune.
Essendon – DEF Targets
Richmond is second to only St Kilda for backline stacks over the last 5 rounds – which is not-so-coincidentally since Tom Lynch has been out injured and they’ve gone from the Twin Towers to a rusty Jack Riewoldt & Friends forward line. Mason Redman ($12,520 DEF) is too cheap as the prime mover out of Essendon’s backline this year, while Jordan Ridley and Nick Hind are worth looking at for their ceilings.
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.45pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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