The final offering of Sunday AFL for 2023. The final games do matter today but Draftstars DFS AFL, these matches always matter every day! ‘Tbetta’s has kicked in the final lap of the pool and presents his final Sunday Stargazing preview for the season. Take it away!
MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 Main ($15 entry, 100 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 20 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
PORT vs RICH – Adelaide Oval: Fine.
SYD vs MEL – SCG: Showers.
CAR vs GWS – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
INNER CORE:
FWD
As you’ll learn throughout this article, obvious DFS value and direction are both seriously lacking on the final multi-game Sunday slate of the year, so you might be looking at players you wouldn’t normally consider. Ollie Lord ($6,000 FWD/RUC) is a prime example – he’s averaging just 29 from his past five games, but he’s basement-priced against a Richmond team that has more kids in it than a redneck’s minivan. Could he upswing against a pair of backline Tiger debutants in Tom Brown and James Trezise?
Could there be some midfield boosts available for a few fringe Tigers following the early exits for Dion Prestia, Trent Cotchin, Kayden McIntosh and Marlion Pickett? Liam Baker ($9,310 FWD) has consistently returned sparkling value whenever he’s been injected into the midfield group, while Jack Graham ($9,410 FWD/MID) is forever thirsty for more CBAs that unlocks his best footy.
Besides those highly-speculative picks and a couple of players I’ll cover below, the cupboard is very bare up forward. You’ll see.
MID
The state of affairs is slightly better in the midfield. Thomson Dow ($8,210 MID) is assured a healthy CBA figure given the names out, and we know how desperately players of his lineage rely on those inside rotations. While he’s unlikely to earn inside minutes, Travis Boak ($9,370 MID) is getting cheaper and cheaper due to flipping between a wing role and the tactical sub, and he’s going to start forcing a lot of hands as we head into the Finals Series.
Jacob Hopper ($13,080 MID) had a strong start at Tigerland, but through a combination of injury and Richmond’s wider team form, he lost that elite consistency that he’s always built his game around. I’m hoping that he’ll help fill the voids that have popped up at selection this week, and he can build on last week’s 98 against the Roos.
Carlton have had some Teamsheets drama of their own, regaining a couple of stars from the medical tent in Sam Walsh ($14,290 MID) and Adam Cerra ($14,800 MID), but losing their past two club skippers in Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty to fresh injuries of their own. In some ways it makes our jobs easier, as the roles of the incumbent Blues should remain relatively consistent – such as George Hewett’s ($13,920 MID) heavy inside gig that has produced scores of 105, 111 and 106 over the past three weeks.
Of the premium midfielders, it’s hard to look past Port wunderkinds Connor Rozee ($16,010 MID) and Zak Butters ($16,160 MID) given the soft match-up. They both toned-up earlier this year against the Tigers, and that was under much less favourable conditions. Tom Green ($16,580 MID) is another target worth slinging darts at, shaking off a hamstring strain with scores of 141, 118 and 120 on the skip. He can now rack up stats in all the key fantasy categories, so keeping him from reaching triple digits is a mountainous task for any opposition.
DEF
Sam Banks ($7,330 DEF/MID) showed his scoring ability with 74 and 69 after only a couple of AFL games, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s been artificially bumped up a few rungs in Richmond’s hierarchy this week. I personally have Banks on the vacated wing, but sliding back to defence (if Jayden Short is needed in the midfield) is just as positive for the young Tiger’s output.
The Blues would be thrilled with Zac Fisher’s ($11,370 DEF/MID) rapid growth as a rebounder, racking up another 28 touches and 103 points last round. It was assumed that when Mitch McGovern returned he could be on the fringe again, but it was Caleb Marchbank that copped that earmarked bullet instead. With Sam Docherty’s frequent stints across half-back as the extra defender no longer a factor this Sunday, Fisher should be Newman’s clear deputy in the distribution stakes.
RUC
Taking into account match-ups and fellow selected ruckmen, Tom De Koning ($8,980 RUC) is clearly the best value option on the slate. Carlton have pulled the rug on Marc Pittonet, allowing TDK to duke it out as the solo man. He pumped out scores of 97 and 105 in his last two games without the former Hawk alongside him, so don’t sleep on the Dutch King this Sunday.
BLACK HOLES:
Tim Taranto ($15,600 MID)
A couple of months ago, it was Taranto’s world, and we were all just living in it (even Kane Cornes). Over the first 15 rounds, the GWS import was averaging a competition-best 125 points per game, with an insane basement of 108 points. So, when he faced the Power in Round 11, the talented Tiger racked up 33 touches, 6 marks, 7 tackles and a bag of 4 majors for his 145, even attracting a Willem Drew tag mid-game. Business as usual.
But it’s a vastly different situation now. Taranto hasn’t surpassed 100 fantasy points in a month. Richmond is out of Finals contention and, having already farewelled their retiring legends in a home game last week, Round 24 feels like a mere contractual obligation – one that they’ll only technically fulfill by naming 4 players with less than 5 games experience in this week’s selection changes. On top of that, Port is the hardest team for MIDs to score against all year, and they get to do it in the pressure cooker at Adelaide Oval.
Nic Newman ($15,870 DEF)
GWS are the third-hardest team for defenders to score against this year, so if the insane run of 4 scores of 123-plus was ever going to come to an end, it would be now. Under closer inspection, the teams he posted those monster scores against were rated 7th, 1st, 8th and 2nd for premium defenders. So now that the price-tag and public opinion is up, I’m down on the old girl.
Jesse Hogan ($11,520 FWD)
This is your classic recency bias fade. Hogan’s hulk-like performance of 24 touches, 17 marks and 9 sausage rolls for 188 fantasy points last week is obviously highly unlikely to be repeated, but the subconscious thought processes for a lot of punters is to see an in-form key forward, at a cheap price-tag, and suddenly they’re convincing themselves to go there.
If this is you, let me pour some cold water on Hogan this weekend. His last three scores before the Essendon clash were 47, 55 and 50. Carlton are the 2nd-hardest match-up for Key FWDs over the past ten rounds, while Jesse has never scored a ton against the Blues over his entire career.
STAR SIGNS:
Callum Mills ($12,080 MID)
I know he only had 51 points – even though he attended a whopping 88% of centre bounces (a career-high) last week – but the perfect time to strike is while the KPIs are up, but the price-tag and public confidence is down. After all, the Crows are the toughest match-up there is for MIDs over the past ten weeks and it was at Adelaide Oval, so making excuses for his hiccup is easy. Mills churned out a team-high 95 when he faced the Dees at the MCG earlier this year, so let’s see what he can do at home.
Max Gawn ($15,410 RUC)
Sydney is the 3rd-best ruck match-up over recent weeks and Gawn is still underpriced after a season of Grundy tomfoolery. If you’re concerned that the return of Hickey cuts into some of that value (as the Swans were without an actual ruckman for a long stretch), then let me allay those fears.
A quick look at the hitouts the Swans are conceding since Sid the sloth has been back over the past fortnight suggests there’s nothing to worry about, with Reilly O’Brien (49) and Jarrod Witts (47) controlling the skies with ease. In a must-win game for the Demons, Gawn will be at his best and that’s a DFS commodity that you can’t ignore.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Port – Key Forward Targets
After being defensive benchmarks for the better part of a decade, Richmond have quietly risen to the top of the key forward matador rankings over the second half of the season. Nick Larkey slotted 6 goals and 92 last week (both season highs), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan popped up with 5 goals and 97 the week before, and even Harrison Petty exploded with 6 goals and 117 the week before that.
The structural weakness is hard to deny given the bloated numbers alongside the names above, so get on board the DvP train with Todd Marshall ($10,060 FWD) and Jeremy Finlayson ($10,930 FWD/RUC) darts.
Port Adelaide – Full Stack
This is one of the hardest slates I’ve had to cover with respect to stacking, and no matter how I spin it, I keep coming back to a dominant Port side at home, (potentially) playing for a top-two spot, while Richmond is blooding kids and sending veterans off on early long service leave. On the flip side, the other two games project out as low-scoring fantasy affairs, with no clear favourites and red flags littered throughout the DvP matrices.
Tbetta.
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