Our 2nd last multi game Sunday contest for the AFL season! But every match still matters for teams on Sunday which our guru ‘Tbetta’ has once again produce another huge preview!
MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 Main ($15 entry, 100 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 20 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
WBD vs WCE – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
MEL vs HAW – MCG: Chance of showers.
FREM vs PORT – Optus Stadium: Fine.
INNER CORE:
FWD
After crushing it in the WAFL over the past fortnight with scores of 90 and 99, Tom Emmett ($6,000 FWD) earns his AFL debut with a week to spare. Unfortunately though, the mature-ager will fill more of a pressure small forward role than the ball winning types we prefer in fantasy footy, and the Power match-up is oppressive. Moving up to Bailey Laurie ($6,000 FWD) for his first full game of the year following scores of 105 and 115 in the VFL is by far my preferred option.
If you’re after someone with a bit of continuity, Luke Edwards ($7,350 FWD/MID) has shown the ability to spike over his short career, most recently with 80 points against the Bombers. He was already rounding out the CBA rotation for West Coast with a 38% share over the past fortnight, but with West Coast axeing O’Neill and his 65%, Son of Tyson should be looking at more rotations. Will we’re on the topic, Jack Petruccelle ($9,070 FWD/MID) is the other likely recipient of that leftover midfield time and was punching out 80’s earlier this year with the hybrid role.
In the premium bracket, Bailey Smith ($12,910 FWD/MID) is the best-value selection as we search for value in Tom Liberatore’s week off while in concussion protocols. While he didn’t quite convert the extra inputs to better fantasy outputs, it was he who Bevio turned to mid-game against the Hawks last week, finishing with a 55% CBA share – quite the bump given that his previous best since Round 13 was a paltry 9%. The West Coast match-up is salivating.
MID
I’m not seeing the same value in cheap MIDs that we usually rely upon, which could make affording the big names significantly harder this Sunday. Ned Long ($6,460 MID) piqued my interest briefly, but a quick scan of Hawthorn’s Teamsheets quickly extinguished that as it ensures he’ll be played out of position up forward. The 95 points he’s averaged in the VFL isn’t replicable at the top level if he’s not getting the same midfield clock.
Thankfully, we have a few mid-price options available to ease the financial strain. Matthew Johnson ($9,960 MID) made the most of his wing role with 111 points last week and Dockers haven’t touched their midfield group at selection. Jason Horne-Francis ($11,870 MID) has taken his game to a new level over the past fortnight with averages of 25 touches, 7 marks, 2 goals and 104 points. Even Karl Amon ($13,270 MID) is worth a look as the cherry on top of Hawthorn’s rapidly-maturing midfield, waxing scores of 105, 109, 100 and 138 on the trot.
Of the big names, I really like Adam Treloar ($15,980 MID) with maxed out inside midfield time and the West Coast match-up, against whom he pumped out 129 points last season. Jack Viney’s ($15,640 MID) ceiling is epic with a quartet of scores of 133+ amongst his last 9 games and has to be respected at this price, while the stupidly-expensive Marcus Bontempelli ($17,980 MID) is still worth considering as he chases Brownlow votes to close the home-and-away season.
DEF
Obviously mispriced players are again absent in defence, so it’s going to be another slate of prioritising backline stacks. On the surface though, Adam Tomlinson’s ($7,540 DEF) best is better than this salary, as is Brennan Cox ($9,990 DEF) and his lofty ceiling whenever the game shakes out in favour of slow, methodical movement out of defence that results in overinflated mark figures.
If Liam Duggan ($14,660 DEF/MID) is going to continue to masquerade as a midfielder, I really like Alex Witherden ($13,210 DEF) at this price-tag. He’s proven over multiple years to be significantly more potent when Shannon Hurn is out of the side, and that’s continued in 2023 with a 17-point bump. With the veteran biding his time for an Optus Stadium sendoff next week, the runway is clear for Witho.
RUC
I’ve covered a couple of ruckmen below so I’ll keep this brief here, but it would be remiss of me to leave Tim English ($17,150 RUC) out of this article. If you’re purely searching for a ceiling and money is no object (sadly, it is), then The Human Thunderbird is for you. West Coast is by far the softest match-up for RUCs this year, and Tim English is the highest-averaging ruckman in the league, so the logic jump here doesn’t require a degree… unless it’s a finance degree, because affording him is the real quantum leap.
BLACK HOLES:
Clayton Oliver ($17,190 MID)
Maginness has now proven he can go to inside midfielders and clamp them with the scalps of Nick Daicos and Tom Liberatore (pre-injuries) over the past fortnight, both with a grand total of 0 centre bounce attendances in those games. Previously, conventional wisdom suggested that wasn’t possible without the inside time that would come at the expense of the existing delicate mix, but Sam Mitchell and his Hawks have busted that myth wide open. Meanwhile, Clayton Oliver returns to the Melbourne side like he never left, notching 27 touches, 13 tackles and 10 clearances in his injury return game for 126.
That puts Oliver in dangerous waters, who I consider significantly more likely to be circled by the Shark Finn than say Christian Petracca – who, like Marcus Bontempelli last week, has the ability to go forward and turn him into soup.
Jaeger O’Meara ($10,840 MID)
The emergence of Hayden Young as a defensive midfielder – yes, I’m disappointed to announce that Justin Longmuir is a filthy liar and he did not return to defence last week as advertised – has absolutely murdered O’Meara’s fantasy value. While he’s admittedly looked a step off the pace since the bye, he was still reliable for his baseline of 20 touches that you could adjust based on match-up.
But since Young has ironically added some youthful exuberance to Fremantle’s midfield, JOM’s centre bounce rate has plummeted from 59% to 33%, and his fantasy output has followed suit with scores of just 43, 67 and 49. Once again, Sam Mitchell looks like a mastermind. Be like Sam.
STAR SIGNS:
Bailey J Williams ($11,080 RUC)
He’s carried a big load all year and it’s taken its toll over the last fortnight, grinding out scores of just 37 and 48. But the good news for BJ is that his respite is here, with Tim English and the Western Bulldogs ranking #1 for points conceded to primary ruckmen in 2023 – but perhaps more importantly, giving up the second-most hitouts in the league. Given that Williams averages 95 when hitting 35+ hitouts this year (compared to 72 when he doesn’t), this is a sneaky play that will escape the majority of casual punters.
Max Gawn ($15,040 RUC)
The awkward Brodie Grundy third wheel experiment is (again) over, which means we can now enjoy our alone time with Max Gawn, some nice mood music and a couple of scented candles. Conveniently for us, he’s also dropped a nice chunk of coin since our last romantic night out thanks to that score of 84 with Grundy alongside him – his lowest output in a couple of months.
He comes up against a solo Ned Reeves who’s been doing a stellar job for the Hawks over the last fortnight (Darcy Cameron 80, Tim English 96), but a solo Max Gawn isn’t a genie you can simply stuff back into the bottle. Just ask Oscar McInerney, Reilly O’Brien or Ivan Soldo, who went through this experience recently and conceded scores of 162, 115 and 131 respectively.
Jack Macrae ($14,400 FWD/MID)
As has been reported in some sections of the fantasy community, Macrae’s score of 45 last week was the single lowest score of his entire career (from full games). That’s an incredible stat really – never did he have a stumble as a pimple-faced rookie, or a bad day on the wrong end of a tag.
On the other hand, it highlights just how horribly out of form and favour he is currently – which raises an interesting quandary given that’s he got a juicy West Coast match-up (which would help fix the form) and the likelihood of more midfield time due to Tom Liberatore’s concussion (which would help with the Bevo-ing). Do you back in the form, or the KPIs?
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Western Bulldogs – Full Stack
If fantasy footy porn existed, getting West Coast on the road would be the archetypical equivalent of the young, hot tradesman being called in to fix the pipes of the frustrated and unappreciated housewife. This is ground zero for DvP and team stacking, with the Eagles the competition-leaders in points conceded to all of key forwards, general forwards, ruckmen and premium midfielders this season.
Like the tradie, as long as you show up, you can’t go wrong with Bulldogs stacks this Sunday.
West Coast – DEF Stack
The Bulldogs are nipping at the heels of St Kilda in the “who can concede more easy stats to defenders” race, and sit clearly in pole position over the past five weeks. As we know, the Eagles love to retreat into the safety of their nest with low-impact possessions deep in defence whenever the lead threatens to blossom – which is why their top five scorers last week were all DEFs as Fremantle pulled down their pants and spanked them.
So, if you can see the game script of the Bulldogs smashing West Coast on the road coming to fruition, then combining this micro-stack with the full-blown stack above is a simple and effective way of cashing in on the power of correlation.
Port Adelaide – MID Targets
This one is significantly more difficult to implement, but if you’re looking for any chinks in the armour of teams in the remaining two games on the slate, this is the clear pressure point. Fremantle has conceded the 4th-most points to midfielders this year and the third-most to inside MIDs over the past 10 weeks… so all you have to do is figure out who Hayden Young plans to tag, and pick the rest.
Sadly, with both Connor Rozee ($16,010 MID) and Zak Butters ($15,740 MID) crushing it lately, it’s as clear as mud who that’ll be.
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Sunday slate will close at 1.10pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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