Now time for the Power or the Giants to make it to a prelim to take on the Magpies on Saturday Night. Draftstars have reloaded the kitty and ‘Tbetta’ has backed up with another mega preview.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$75,000 Main ($15 entry, 125 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Mini ($2 entry, 25 max)
$2,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 20 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants – Adelaide Oval: Fine.
STAR SIGNS:
Teamsheets
There’s very little to see here. Jeremy Finlayson has been putrid for a month, but Port hasn’t had the soldiers to replace him – now that Scott Lycett and the incoming Charlie Dixon are fit, the equation has changed. They’ve also promoted favourite son Travis Boak back into the 22, where he’ll reprise his regular wing role while Miles Bergman slides back to defence at the expense of a sore Dylan Williams.
Meanwhile, the Giants will go in as named prior to last week’s Elimination Final, with only the last-minute withdrawal of Stephen Coniglio (eye) corrected.
Repeats
The Giants might claim to provide free smoke wherever we might desire it, but that certainly wasn’t the case in Round 22 as the Power extinguished their flame through a 51-point smothering at Adelaide Oval. Port had six multiple goal kickers, won the clearances by 7 despite subbing out their ruckman early and somehow managed to make Ollie Wines look like he’s ageing like his namesake.
The only positives for the visitors were colour-based, with Green(e) pair Tom (118) and Toby (110) combining for 58 touches and 4 goals. They’ll need more groundswell from others in the orange tsunami if they’re going to overcome Port’s strong home ground advantage this Saturday evening.
Retreats
The clear concern is Josh Kelly ($15,130 MID) who could be looking at a repeat of the Willem Drew tag that held him to just 73 points last time around. Drew doesn’t get a lot of fanfare but he is a highly effective stopper, and he’s fresh off keeping Lachie Neale to just 19 touches and 67 points last week. With just the single ton from his last five games, Kelly is probably overpriced at north of $15k anyway, but the Drew factor erases him from my player pool.
INNER CORE:
Cheapies
There are quite a few tempting options in the lower levels this Saturday, especially if you’re planning to stack the Power. Lachie Jones ($7,080 DEF) has a solid floor for his price, Aliir Aliir ($8,250 DEF) is prone to a random score bump if the intercept marks are flowing and Ryan Burton (49,790 DEF) is too cheap for his role as a defensive distributor.
There’s more. Jason Horne-Francis ($9,450 MID) admittedly has horrendous form with 45, 46 and 56 in his last three, but it was only a month ago where he scored 100 & 107 on the trot, with the latter being a career-high against the Giants. This is the type of pick that wins GPP’s, so don’t discount the second-year star based on inconsistency.
For a bit more safety, I’d be settling on Travis Boak ($9,470 MID) instead. He isn’t getting the plum roles anymore as either the starting sub or a wingman for the majority of the season, but he’s a club legend in a knockout final, and that needs to be respected. He’s produced 71 in his last two full games, so it only takes a couple of big moments on top of this baseline for Boak to smash value at this salary.
I’m not as enthused by the cheaper GWS options on the road, but Isaac Cumming’s ($9,280 DEF) best is much better than this price-tag. The wing role is very game-state dependent so treat him as an upside pick, with something like the 86 points he pumped out against the Bombers a few weeks ago being a realistic target for this dart-throw.
Middies
Mid-priced midfielders are going to have a huge say on this slate, with all of Xavier Duursma ($10,730 MID), Ollie Wines (10,860 MID), Callan Ward ($10,870 MID), Finn Callaghan ($11,270 MID) and even Willem Drew ($11,610 MID) highly pickable at these salaries. I’m finding it hard to split these guys in a lot of cases, so this might be the perfect area to find expression with your team stacking if you’re going down that route.
Toby Bedford ($10,470 FWD) and Brent Daniels ($10,470 FWD) are similar in a lot of ways, from roles to price-tags. The high half forward role has been kind to these guys over Orange Tsunami’s September swell, both averaging 81 over the last month of action. If you think the Giants win, this pair has to be high on your priority list.
Maxis
Tom Green ($16,980 MID) is your one-size-fits-all premium target, absolutely crushing it since returning from a hamstring niggle with averages of 36 disposals, 6 tackles and 120 fantasy points over that 5-game stretch. Regardless of the result, Green will rarely let you down as a safe source of 110 points of the 850+ you’ll need to take down a tournament.
We’ve talked about it a few times this year, but like a teenage boy, Connor Rozee ($16,070 MID) absolutely loves playing at home. He has 8-straight tons at Adelaide Oval and counting, as well as a tasty form line of 125 and 112 in his last two clashes with GWS. I prefer him slightly to his teammate Zak Butters ($16,350 MID) based purely on a gut feeling that he attracts more attention from GWS’s opposition analysis team following his red-hot form of 130, 121, 113, 104 and 124 coming into this clash.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
Port – Full Stack
The Power aren’t a high-scoring team in general, but they are clear favourites and playing on their hallowed home deck, where they average an extra 106 fantasy points this season. If the Giants have any structural weakness, it’s in the midfield, where is where Port cashed in back as recently as Round 22, with Zak Butters (121), Connor Rozee (112), Jason Horne-Francis (107) and Ollie Wines (90) all amongst their top five scorers. I’d be going back for seconds.
GWS – RUC Target
How much weighting do you give personnel over playstyle? Port has been the easiest team for #1 ruckmen to score against this season – as well as finishing 4th in that metric last year – framing Kieren Briggs ($13,940 RUC) as the ruck to pluck. But many of our data points were recorded with Scott Lycett ($10,640 RUC) on the sidelines, playing just 29% of those games to completion…
Do you back in the 24-month long trend and snap up Briggs, or do you back in the cheaper Lycett to repeat something like last weekend’s 102-point effort against a quality opponent in Oscar McInerney?
Tbetta.
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