Best Bets 11th March 2020

Midweek racing returns, with good-sized fields and competitive betting races being the theme of the afternoon. There is a solid 8-race program from Sandown Hillside, with a number of horses who contested group races on a Saturday, returning to midweek grade here.

Down in NSW, Warwick Farm plays host to a nice seven race card, hopefully the track will be drying up a bit throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday. There is also racing from Doomben, Bordertown and Ascot. PlayUp form analyst Lewis Willoughby identifies his five key bets for the day below, finding some good value around the grounds.

Sandown R2 #9 Order Of Valour $8.00 at PlayUp – This Henry Dwyer trained gelding is coming into the fifth run of his preparation today, off the back of two very nice second placed finishes. Last start over the 1000m at Ballarat he loomed as the winner, but lost his winker rounding the turn and proceeded to hang in badly, costing himself the race. Today, he gets the blinkers on to ensure that it won’t happen again, and it should give him every chance to win. He sticks to the same distance and same grade, is drawn to get a lovely run in transit from barrier four, and I thought his current price is definitely worth a good each way bet. 

Sandown R3 #7 Shilo Lass (BEST) $2.90 at PlayUp – This 3YO filly for Michael Moroney could have some serious untapped talent. She comes here first-up off the back of an 800m jump out in which she finished last, but that does not concern me as she just looks to be a lazy trial worker. Before her debut run last October, she also finished an average last in a jump out, but then she managed to step out on race day over the 1000m at Ballarat and absolutely blow them away with ease. It was a very strong win and was also recorded in good time. They have elected to contest the harder bm70 race, which gives me the feeling they have a high opinion of her. Drawn well, cross over nose band goes on, and well-weighted at the 56kg. Big chance.

Sandown R4 #3 Peidra $5.50 at PlayUp – Lindsey Park gelding comes here to Sandown 2nd up after a complete forgive run at Caulfield. She settled last over the 1200m on a day where it was near impossible to make ground, and she still ran very well through the line. She ran a 33.16 last 600m sectional, which is easily quicker than any other time recorded by opponents in this race. She is fitter now second up and stepping to the 1300m definitely suits. Last prep second-up she was a dominant winner, so she looks very suitably placed. From barrier 13 she will get back again and be running on very strongly, hopefully there is no on-pace bias today, and she can be afforded every chance to win.

Warwick Farm R1 #4 Sabor $6.50 at PlayUp – This 2YO Lonhro colt steps out here on debut for the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott team. He has been freshened since winning a Warwick Farm trial over 740m back on the 13th of February. he flew the gates and led comfortably, and was kept under a very strong hold through the line that day. From barrier three I expect Sabor to be quickly away again and find the rail with ease. Tim Clark sticks aboard from the trial and is very good at rating them perfectly in front. Inside word has it that Gai has a very big opinion of this horse, and I’m confident it can perform very well on debut.

Warwick Farm R4 #10 Willowheart $3.90 at PlayUp – This lightly raced 3YO for the Waller camp has returned very well this prep, recording two consecutive placings’ on what I believe to be unsuitable wet going. Yes she clearly runs well on a heavy track, but I think coming back to a drier track today could be the key to improvement. Last start she finished behind Splintex and the start before that behind talented Godolphin runner Phemonoe. Third up now stripping much fitter, and an extra 100m is sure to be suitable. From barrier three she should get a very good run, and with only the 55kg I expect here to be very competitive here.