The most unpredictable season in AFL history continues in new hubs outside of Victoria and all 18 teams playing away from home this weekend. What will unfold next is anyone’s guess but we’ve done our best to dissect this weekend’s matches and bring you our AFL betting tips for Round 6.
Thursday
7:40pm Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions
The Cats returned to form last week with a convincing win over the Suns that keeps them right in touch with the top four.
Gary Ablett Jr and Joel Selwood were able to celebrate huge milestones with a win, although the former is questionable to play this weekend.
The Lions were also dominant in their top of the table clash against the Power this week, which has seen their premiership odds get crunched.
Both clubs bring great form into this but the Lions are the ones still with the question marks over their heads; they’re 4-0 at the Gabba and 0-1 away from it this season. We’ll find out a lot about them here but we still recommend siding with the Cats +7.5 line.
Prediction: Geelong +7.5 @$1.90
Friday
7:50pm Collingwood Magpies vs. Hawthorn Hawks
The Magpies fell to the Bombers in Round 5 and have now lost back-to-back games.
There’s plenty of off-field drama going on with the Pies as well with Jordan De Goey under fire and set to miss an extended period.
The Hawks were disappointing against the Giants last weekend but get a chance to rectify it with another crack at GIANTS Stadium this weekend.
This is another tough one to predict but the Hawks are in slightly better form and represent marginal value in the H2H market.
Prediction: Hawthorn to win @$2.16
Saturday
12:35pm Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints
Fremantle were able to get the job done against Adelaide last weekend in one of the worst games in recent memory. Skill errors were the common theme all day and the Dockers can count themselves lucky they were against the Crows.
The Saints got off to a flier against the Blues and were able to hold steady to grind out another great win to take them to 3-2 on the season.
The neutral ground means there’s no excuses for either club here and we expect the Saints to be getting the job done. This could end in a blowout win, so Saints at the line (-16.5) looks fantastic.
Prediction: St.Kilda -16.5 @$1.90
3:05pm West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows
Another shellacking looms on Saturday when the Eagles take on the Crows at the Gabba.
The Eagles flicked the switch against the Swans last week, while the Crows suffered yet another listless loss.
Very easy one to predict here and although the line looks big at first glance, expect the Eagles to come out firing and cover it with a couple of goals to spare in the most one-sided match of the round. Eagles -31.5 is the move here.
Prediction: West Coast -31.5 @$1.90
6:05pm Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns
This is one of the more interesting clashes of the round because no one really knows which version of these two clubs will show up.
The Demons showed a bit of fight against the Tigers but their inability to kick a winning score remains a constant.
For the Suns, they lost their best player in Matt Rowell to a season-ending injury in their loss to the Cats last weekend, but at least they remained relatively competitive in his absence.
Although they’re without Rowell, the Suns still have the talent advantage over the Demons here and represent the better value in the H2H market. Take the Suns to win.
Prediction: Gold Coast to win @$2.14
7:40pm Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne
The last match of a four-game Saturday slate is probably the toughest of the round to predict.
The Bombers were tremendous against the Pies in Round 5 to record their third win for the season (one loss), while the Kangaroos lost their third on the spin when they went down to in-form Dogs.
Form certainly suggests that the Bombers are the ones to beat here, but it would just be typical Essendon to let a game like this slip. This should be a low bet game, but if you’re keen on a bit of interest, then North Melbourne +7.5 looks the best play.
Prediction: North Melbourne +7.5 @$1.90
Sunday
1:05pm Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants
The Power were certainly off in Brisbane last weekend when Port Adelaide fell by 37 points to the Lions. The league leaders were thoroughly beaten in the contest and were unable to match the young Lions firepower.
Despite the wakeup call in Round 5, Port Adelaide should still be the favourites in this contest against the Giants at the neutral Gabba.
The Port boys got a feel for the ground last weekend and will be desperate to make amends for a poor showing against the locals. They may have lost by a big margin but they’re still top of the tree and are great odds to bounce back and win this in the 1-39 margin range.
Prediction: Port Adelaide 1-39 @$2.26
3:35pm Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans
The Tigers were back to some of their best footy against the Demons last weekend with their pressure around the ball back to the level we’ve come to expect. The win did come at a rather big cost however, with injuries to key players in Nankervis, Cotchin, Prestia and Lynch.
The Swans have come back down to earth after consecutive heavy losses against the Bulldogs and the Eagles. The 2-3 record they come into this round with is a good indication of where their list is at in 2020.
The Tigers are without a whole host of stars from their premiership last year and the market is starting to show that. In saying that, they were in a similar position against the Power last year and managed to grind out a win in amazing circumstances, which kick-started their premiership run. This weekend’s match may not have the same long-term effect as that one did, but we still expect them to rise to the challenge and defeat a rebuilding Swans outfit. Take the Tigers at the line (-3.5) for a bit of extra value.
Prediction: Richmond -3.5 @$1.90
6:45pm Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs
The last game of the round should be a good one between the up and coming Blues and the rampaging Dogs.
The Blues were slow starters against the Saints last weekend and that killed them in the end, while the Dogs were anything but slow as they cruised to their third straight win.
Both clubs will see this as a winnable game but you just can’t look past the Dogs on current form. They’re a threat to blow this out if they continue their current trend, so the -10.5 line looks great value to finish the weekend.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs -10.5 @$1.90
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