Sunday brings another interesting two-game contest on Draftstars
Can the Blues actually get a win? That is debatable but there are plenty of ways to attack Draftstars contests as ‘Tbetta’ will explain in Sunday’s ‘Stargazing’ preview.
MAIN CONTESTS:
$60,000 Main ($15 entry, 100 max)
$10,000 High Roller ($150 entry, 3 max)
$5,000 Fiver ($5 entry, 50 max)
$3,000 Mini ($2 entry, 15 max)
$2,000 Buck Hunter ($1 entry, 100 max)
$2,000 Micro ($0.50 entry, 100 max)
SATELLITE:
CAR vs GCS – MCG: Fine.
NTH vs WBD – Marvel Stadium: Under the roof.
INNER CORE:
FWD
He hasn’t put it together at AFL level yet in 2023, but Mitch Hannan ($6,260 FWD) is averaging 78 in the VFL and should see plenty of supply as a forward against the Roos. He has an impressive 8 goals in the past fortnight in the Twos and he only needs to crawl to 60 here to reach value. Anything more than that is free money.
David Cunningham ($7,090 FWD/MID) has forced his way back into Carlton’s AFL side after just 3 games in the VFL following a lengthy injury layoff for repeat foot issues. His scoring power isn’t in question with 124 fantasy points (26 touches, 5 marks, 7 tackles and 2 sausage rolls) against Essendon’s VFL squad, so he just needs the footy to hit the wings a bit to absolutely murder this price-tag.
Tarryn Thomas ($10,770 FWD/MID) is nicely-priced following scores of 82 and 78 since his return from the wilderness of off-field purgatory, but I liked him much more in DFS prior to Hugh Greenwood and Jy Simpkin returning to soak up a big chunk of his midfield time.
It’s a small slate and Jack Macrae ($14,880 FWD/MID) is the only premium MID/FWD on the menu, so he’s the only realistic option if you want to pay up in attack. With scores of 117, 123, 104 and 129 over the past, can we trust that he’s finally figured out that high half forward role?
MID
The return of Hugh Greenwood ($10,040 MID) and Jy Simpkin ($12,490 MID) is a big theme in this Sunday’s article because of how many Roos (and even some Bulldogs) are affected by the dispersion of midfield minutes. I even don’t mind targeting this pair themselves given that poor concussion scores have poisoned their pricing algorithms. Greenwood’s last two scores before the head knock were belters of 87 and 114, while $12.5k is simply way too low for someone of Simpkin’s ilk.
I find David Swallow ($11,820 MID) to be an interesting proposition at this salary, mainly due to the huge CBA numbers he’s enjoying. If you’re in the guts 74% of the time, an upswing is always possible – like the 125 against the Dockers earlier this year, or the 94 against West Coast more recently.
CBAs are again a big factor in my love for Adam Treloar ($15,050 MID) at this price, getting stuffed full of them for his scores of 130 (82%) and 110 (84%) in the last couple of weeks. I expect him to be super popular, so if you want someone with a little more unique flavour, may I suggest Noah Anderson ($15,480 MID)? His last few scores against Carlton reads 118, 115, 112 – super impressive given he’s in just his fourth season – and the lack of Ed Curnow for Carlton means he should escape a tag.
DEF
Most of my interest in the DEF line is with the premium types on this slate, so see below for more thoughts on options like Gold Coast pair Wil Powell and Darcy Macpherson, Bulldogs duo Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale, and the North Melbourne wunderkind Harry Sheezel.
If you’re looking for cheap anchors though, there’s not a lot there. Joel Jeffery ($8,280 DEF) is averaging 68 as a defender for Suns after a role switch, but we haven’t seen a ceiling just yet. I’d much rather go back to the well on Laitham Vandermeer ($8,610 DEF) following a similar role change instead, manufacturing a handy 74 in his first game as a defender at AFL level in Round 13.
Of course, I can’t go a single week without mentioning Matthew Kennedy ($11,030 DEF/MID) and his violently fluctuating role in this article. He’s harder to predict than a morning wee, but with no Ed Curnow in the starting 22, there’s a few extra midfield rotations available.
RUC
Tom De Koning has been so putrid as the sole ruckman that Blues officials are surely out there sacrificing lambs to any Gods who will listen, if only to guarantee that Marc Pittonet ($10,100 RUC) takes the field on Sunday. He has produced a low score of 70 in his last 5 as Carlton’s primary ruck – including a 79/21 ruck split with De Koning most recently – so I’m happy to resort to him as a cheaper option.
I’m also keeping an eye on his direct opponent in Jarrod Witts ($13,850 RUC) after a freshen-up with the Suns coming off the Bye. Not only has he registered a low of 48 hitouts in his last four starts, he’s also produced just the single score under 97 in his last 6 meetings with the Blues. Love it.
BLACK HOLES:
Will Phillips ($9,780 MID)
It was a fun train ride for 2.25 games, but the Phillips Express is officially out of puff. The young onballer managed just 16 points over the last three quarters against GWS, and now has to navigate the returns of senior inside midfielders in Jy Simpkin and Hugh Greenwood this weekend. I expect we’ll still see him get CBAs with Liam Shiels likely to be redeployed in defence (if I’m reading the Teamsheets tea leaves correctly), but he’s probably 4th in line and therefore back to his 60’s.
Jack Macrae ($14,880 FWD/MID)
If I were to play devil’s advocate, then I’d absolutely point out that the 3-time All-Australian posted a team-high 129 last week from just 3% CBAs as Bevo again fired up the Mastermind board game in the coaches box. Macrae has a very poor record of scoring without centre bounces, so I can understand backing in the career-long trend and going under the field if he’s not part of that midfield rotation.
Tim English ($17,280 RUC)
This is another one of those mathematical plays to consider in GPP’s because it feels very uncomfortable betting against English as he’s been an absolute beast all year – for all but one quarter, anyway. But anything north of $17k is prohibitive as he’d need to push 140 to satisfy our 8X value rule for Premium picks, so you don’t want any red flags – of which we have a couple this weekend.
Firstly, North has been the 3rd-hardest team for RUCs to score against this season, with just 20% of ruckmen outperforming their average against the Roos. Secondly, Todd Goldstein has been a troublesome match-up for Tim over the years, restricting him to scores of 65, 124, 91 and 54 in their last four head-to-head meetings. Now obviously English has gone to another level this year and those numbers require a decent pinch of salt, but that’s more than enough red flags to have me searching for alternate options in the ruck this Sunday.
STAR SIGNS:
Caleb Daniel ($14,970 DEF/MID)
The Bulldogs are at their best when they untangle the overlapping skillsets of their best ball-users, which is exactly what they’ve done by shifting Daniel back behind the ball over the past fortnight to cover some injuries. His scores since returning to defence in the last 2 weeks reads 136 and 110, either as a half-back or a defensive wingman (depending on whether Bevo wants to flourish the magnets with weird roles like whacking Lobb on a wing). He should be relatively Bevo proof here as a result, so I like him as a ceiling option against the Roos.
Bailey Dale ($14,210 DEF)
Also cashing in on the injuries to Jason Johannisen and Ed Richards is Bailey Dale, taking a hefty 15/18 kick-ins over the past fortnight for scores of 118 and 99. It could be worth packaging him with the man above for some ultimate Bulldogs stacks, as the pair have had no trouble scoring in tandem as defenders this season – especially under the Marvel mat.
Harry Sheezel ($13,520 DEF/MID)
I had Sheezel as a fade last week for the same reason I love him here – the selection status of Aaron Hall. Adding the GWS score to the with/without stats between the pair has Sheezel scoring a whopping +20 points when the veteran Roo isn’t selected, predominantly due to undiluted distribution rights across half-back.
With fellow defenders Darcy Tucker and Miller Bergman also shown the door at selection, I’ll eat my Draftstars hoodie if the Rising Star favourite doesn’t set up in defence this Sunday.
GALAXY CLUSTER:
GCS – DEF Targets
There’s not a lot of tempting trends to hit on top of both Carlton and Gold Coast rating as low-scoring teams – neither have won the fantasy ledger in the past month – so this is the best of a bad bunch.
Carlton is giving up 4th-most points to Wings/DEFs over the past 5 weeks, which could help reverse some muted scoring for a pair of Suns. Wil Powell ($10,640 DEF) and Darcy Macpherson ($11,270 DEF) are primed for bounce-backs after low scores up in the sloppy and slippery climes of the Northern Territory, and Carlton’s struggles could further aid the swift restoration of equilibrium.
WBD – Full Stack
The Bulldogs are the 3rd-highest scoring side overall and North gives up the 2nd-most fantasy points this season, which makes this an easy trend to blindly follow. But who should we target?
The DvP matrix suggests we focus on FWDs and MIDs, especially the tall types in attack and the outside types in the midfield. Both Rory Lobb ($7,990 FWD/RUC) and Aaron Naughton ($9,670 FWD) are well overdue for a ceiling game, while hybrid midfielder Bailey Smith ($13,520 MID) could use a Roo boost after averaging just 79 over the past three weeks. Of course, Bazlenka posted a career-high 43 touches for a monster score of 147 in the corresponding fixture against North last year.
NTH – RUC Targets
The Dogs are giving up the 2nd-most points to RUCs this year, which is vaguely surprising given Tim English’s efforts offensively. Am I crazy, or could Todd Goldstein ($12,160 RUC) be worth a look after a quiet fortnight? Digging a bit deeper into the archives, it turns out that Goldy loves this match-up: his last four scores as the #1 ruckman against English reads 153, 118, 86 and 100. Interest officially piqued.
Tbetta.
Ready to go? Draftstars multi game Saturday slate will close at 1.10pm AEST. ENTER NOW!
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