THE UFC’s first pay-per-view card of 2022 arrives this weekend, headlined by two huge title fights in both the heavyweight and flyweight divisions.
Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane – Heavyweight Title Fight
This has been dubbed by some as the biggest heavyweight fight in the history of the UFC! When Gane finished Derrick Lewis in August of 2021 to claim the interim belt, a fight with the champion, Ngannou, was exciting enough in itself. But the added drama of Ngannou and Gane being former training partners, Ngannou’s spat with his former head coach Fernand Lopez (Gane’s head coach), leaked training footage and Ngannou’s contract issues with the UFC, has only added fuel to the fire. How much these outside-the-cage issues will affect the fight is hard to predict, but it’s definitely a factor worth considering for bettors.
How might the fight play out?
The fight will most likely stay on the feet during the early rounds. Gane may look to engage in the wrestling at some point in the fight, but attempting a takedown in the first or second round is a risky maneuver against a fresh and strong Ngannou. In the stand-up, Gane will try to employ something similar to his game plan versus Lewis, staying at a safe range with his slick foot movement and coming in with fast and agile strikes to score on Francis. On the other hand, Ngannou will be less active and looking to find one opening to land a fight-ending strike. Overall, Gane is the more-skilled and efficient striker, but it only takes one very small mistake and Ngannou can end anyone’s night. Gane should be a comfortable favourite, he has the better striking and ability to out-point Ngannou over five rounds, but I think the value is with Ngannou in the betting markets. His chances of winning rely heavily on a KO/TKO early in the fight. Outside of that, it’s very hard to make a case for him winning.
Our best bet: Ngannou to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1-3 $2.70 at PlayUp
Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo 3 – Flyweight Title Fight
For the third time in just over 13 months we will see Bradon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo duke it out for the flyweight belt. In December 2020, they fought to a draw after Figueiredo was deducted a point for a groin strike. Six months later saw the rematch, where Moreno dominated from start to finish, winning by rear-naked choke in the third round. In my opinion, how the third fight plays out mostly hinges on what version of Figueiredo shows up.
How might the fight play out?
Figueiredo was not himself when he lost the belt in June, the aggressiveness to which he usually fights with had evaporated. I believe most of that was down to his poor weight-cut and overall physical shape. He seemed to have no confidence in his ability to go with Moreno for five hard-fought rounds again, so he employed a low volume approach that ruined any chance he had of winning. Since his loss, Figueiredo has spent time training with the former flyweight and bantamweight champion, Henry Cejudo, and looks to have gotten himself back into the best shape of his career. There is a good chance we could see the best version of Figueiredo this weekend, or at least something similar to the version of their first fight, but it is somewhat of a guessing game. On the other hand, we know what we’re going to get from Moreno and that’s why he warrants favouritism. If Moreno is allowed to march forward, land his jab and takedowns, he will go home with the belt again. But, if the Figueiredo of old returns, we’re in for one hell of a fight. For me, the value is with Figueiredo, I’m confident we will see a much-improved Figueiredo in all areas and an ability to contend with Moreno everywhere for five rounds.
Our best bet: Deiveson Figueiredo win $2.48 at PlayUp
